Sean Zerillo highlighted Nikita Krylov as excellent value at +340 by knockout against Dominick Reyes, noting Reyes' significant durability concerns. Zerillo recalls Reyes previously having a suspect chin before his recent win over Dustin Jacoby and remains unconvinced by Reyes' supposed resurgence. Although recognizing Krylov's recent absence, Zerillo praised him as one of the division's most versatile fighters with strong striking capabilities. Due to Reyes' concerning durability and questionable defense under pressure, Zerillo expressed a preference to bet Krylov specifically by KO rather than at his steeper moneyline around -175. He also included Krylov as a viable parlay piece up to around -185 odds.

Kunath identified Dominick Reyes ($7400 price on DraftKings) as a compelling DFS contrarian option at UFC 314 despite leaning towards a Krylov victory overall. Reyes has a history of early finishes, including impressive first-round victories over Dustin Jacoby (scoring 118 points) and Anthony Smith (136 points). Kunath acknowledges Reyes' potential for a high-scoring performance if victorious, especially early. Despite favoring Krylov, who Kunath sees having better chin and striking durability, he recommended significant tournament exposure to Reyes due to his upside, advising a minimum 25% inclusion in 100-entry builds.

Matty Betss strongly recommended betting on Nikita Krylov by knockout against Dominick Reyes based on several key factors. Krylov is an underrated finisher in the division, boasting six first-round finishes in the UFC and more than ten across his MMA career. Dominick Reyes has shown recent vulnerabilities and signs of declining durability, having been knocked out by Ryan Spann and visibly hurt in exchanges with Dustin Jacoby. Betss pointed out Reyes' consistent susceptibility to strikes, calling him chinny of late. With Reyes historically showcasing good submission defense, a Krylov knockout at +350 offers significant value, especially considering Krylov's track record of early finishes. This bet forms a crucial leg of Betss' primary cycle parlay for UFC Miami at attractive odds.

Kunath explicitly advises against betting Dominick Reyes despite the tempting underdog odds, primarily due to serious durability concerns. Reyes recently rebounded with knockout victories against Anthony Smith and Dustin Jacoby, but Kunath cautions against overvaluing these wins. He highlights Reyes' extensive knockout losses beforehand, specifically brutal KOs from Jan Blachowicz, Jiri Prochazka, and even Ryan Spann's jab KO as red flags signaling Reyes' severely compromised chin. Kunath contrasts Reyes' vulnerability to Krylov, highlighting Krylov's durability, underrated striking power, recent successful performances, and overall balance as reasons Reyes is unreliable here. Despite acknowledging Reyes' perceived betting value, Kunath strongly predicts Krylov will eventually land a fight-changing strike, reaffirming Reyes' susceptibility to getting badly hurt and knocked out again. Ultimately, Kunath favors Krylov by knockout.

Michael Bisping predicts Nikita Krylov to defeat Dominick Reyes primarily due to Krylov's wrestling and submission abilities. Reyes, previously promising, has suffered brutal knockouts leading to concerns about his durability and chin. Although Reyes took time away and rebounded impressively against Anthony Smith and Dustin Jacoby, Bisping thinks Krylov's ground skill and ability to secure early takedowns and submissions, exemplified by his triangle choke victory over Ryan Spann, give him an important stylistic advantage. If Krylov achieves a takedown, Reyes could be in significant trouble, making Krylov Bisping's preferred pick.

Dave Ross strongly supports betting Nikita Krylov by knockout against Dominick Reyes. Ross pointed out that although Reyes is nostalgically remembered for closely contested fights with elite opponents like Jon Jones, he's now past his prime and carrying extensive damage from past battles. Ross specifically highlighted Reyes' vulnerability, referencing his first-round knockout loss by jab to Ryan Spann. Despite paying respect to Reyes' past achievements, Dave emphasizes betting value and strongly sees Krylov as the younger, hungrier fighter, primed to capitalize on Reyes' diminished durability, making Krylov's KO bet an appealing proposition.

Matty Betss confidently predicts Nikita Krylov will knockout Dominick Reyes in the first round, backing his assertion with extensive fight tape. He cited Reyes showing declining durability, notably losing by early KO to Ryan Spann from a mere jab. Matty also references Reyes' knockout defeats against top competition like Jan Blachowicz and Jiri Prochazka. He acknowledged Krylov’s balanced finishing ability (12 KOs and 16 submissions), yet strongly narrowed his focus to a first-round KO at +750 odds, emphasizing Reyes' compromised chin and stylistic vulnerability against a fresh and dangerous striker like Krylov. Matty also supports the under 1.5 rounds at +125 odds, viewing this as one of his largest bets.

Kyle Anthony cautions strongly against backing Nikita Krylov as a nearly two-to-one favorite at -192 versus Dominick Reyes, highlighting multiple concerning factors. Anthony emphasizes Krylov's prolonged inactivity, having not fought since March 2023, coupled with a significant back surgery performed around a year to eighteen months prior. He argues these factors create uncertainty around Krylov's recovery, conditioning, and overall readiness, representing major red flags at current market pricing. Additionally, Anthony expresses skepticism about Krylov's matchup stylistically, given Krylov's reliance on grappling and takedowns, yet holding an unimpressive 38% takedown success rate. Anthony spots a severe disadvantage against Reyes' proven elite takedown defense, showcased against formidable wrestler Jon Jones. Furthermore, Krylov's striking and knockout power are questioned; Anthony highlights Krylov’s sparse knockout history (only one notable KO against a declining Gustafsson), making it unlikely Krylov takes advantage of Reyes' perceived chin vulnerability. Anthony argues Krylov's best path relies heavily on grappling, yet foresees Reyes neutralizing that approach, making Krylov an overpriced favorite vulnerable to upset.

Kyle Anthony sees significant value in Dominick Reyes at +160 against Nikita Krylov. Anthony highlights major red flags concerning Krylov, including a lengthy two-year layoff since March 2023 and recent back surgery approximately a year ago. He strongly anticipates these factors negatively impacting Krylov's fitness, preparation, and overall performance. Moreover, stylistically, Anthony notes Krylov heavily relies on takedowns and positional grappling to secure wins but lacks elite takedown ability (only a 38% success rate). Meanwhile, Reyes has historically excellent defensive wrestling highlighted by effectively thwarting Jon Jones' wrestling (limited him to 2-for-9 takedowns and under two minutes of control time). Anthony emphasizes Reyes' clear striking advantage, including faster hands, better combinations, and significantly greater knockout power. While acknowledging concerns about Reyes' chin (given knockout losses to powerful strikers Jan Blachowicz, Jiri Prochazka, and Ryan Spann), Anthony is unconcerned here as Krylov lacks comparable KO power, having only one meaningful knockout over a declining Alexander Gustafsson and none against high-level competition in recent years. Considering Reyes is regaining confidence with two recent knockout victories, Anthony recommends taking Reyes at plus-money odds as a strong upset play.

The Weasle sees Dominick Reyes defeating Nikita Krylov in a stylistically favorable match-up that should aid Reyes' resurgence. Krylov has limited head movement and thus presents an inviting target for Reyes’s powerful and precise left hand—a tool Reyes has efficiently utilized both aggressively and while countering off his back foot in recent performances. Additionally, Reyes's exceptional takedown defense, supported by his explosive athleticism and underhook proficiency, should deter Krylov’s grappling attacks, compelling the fight to remain standing where Reyes holds pronounced advantages. Krylov’s unique movement and kicking skills might pose challenges, yet Reyes’s strength in precision punching is viewed by The Weasle as decisive in granting him victory.

Jeff Chalkx confidently picked Dominick Reyes as an underdog in his bout against Nikita Krylov at UFC 314. Despite Reyes previously suffering knockout losses, Chalkx argued Krylov lacks significant punching power, having managed only one knockout victory (the unconventional head kick finish of Alexander Gustafsson) over seven years. Chalkx highlighted Reyes' elite takedown defense, exemplified by stopping seven of nine takedowns from Jon Jones in a prior title fight, positioning him well against Krylov's grappling-heavy attack. Additionally, Krylov's tendency to recklessly engage and leave openings could play directly into Reyes' powerful counter-striking style. Chalkx sees Reyes' takedown defense and striking power as key factors in making him a valuable betting underdog play at the current price (+160).

Cody Saftic advises betting against Nikita Krylov, citing serious concerns with Krylov’s recent inactivity, injury history, and unknown training circumstances ahead of his fight against Dominick Reyes. Saftic details Krylov's string of issues, including a two-year layoff caused by withdrawal due to illness and a significant shoulder injury. Further, he highlights Krylov’s ambiguous training situation, reportedly restricted to training partners of questionable caliber and limited media visibility as Krylov has been based in Russia amid geopolitical tensions. Given Krylov’s historical tendency to fade in fights lacking early finishes and Reyes’ ability to capitalize on opponents declining cardio with volume striking, Saftic views Krylov's position as a substantial betting favorite highly questionable, firmly recommending bettors to oppose Krylov at his current odds.

Paul Shaughnessy enthusiastically backs Dominick Reyes as a plus-money underdog against Nikita Krylov. Shaughnessy argues market disrespect toward Reyes is unwarranted, despite previous struggles and a losing streak against tough fighters such as Ryan Spann, Jan Blachowicz, and Jiri Prochazka. He notes Reyes' promising recent performances including an impressive showing against Anthony Smith where Reyes appeared motivated, confident, and assertive, suggesting his mindset and momentum have significantly rebounded. Meanwhile, Shaughnessy highlights Krylov’s concerning long layoff due to injuries, health issues, and uncertainty stemming from geopolitical complications, casting doubt upon Krylov’s readiness and condition. Considering Reyes' strong takedown defense demonstrated against Jon Jones (2-for-9 on takedowns attempted) and superior boxing volume, Shaughnessy finds Reyes significantly undervalued, presenting excellent betting upside at current odds.