Kenny G said the Cleveland Guardians are a solid bet at -120 to complete a four-game sweep of Baltimore. He pointed to multiple edges: Logan Allen owns a 0 ER, 2-hit line in 5.2 innings against the Orioles back in April and, aside from a post-break hiccup versus Oakland, has been reliable. Charlie Morton is coming off a seven-run disaster at Tampa Bay and surrendered five earned to Cleveland in April, ballooning his season ERA to 5.58. Baltimore has dropped seven of eight, ranks 24th in runs and 23rd in AVG, and drags a 4.80 bullpen ERA on the road, while Cleveland has won seven of eight, sports a playable 3.75 pen, and finally has the bats going with Jose Ramirez and Steven Kwan heating up (scoring 3, 6, 10, 8, 2, 8, 6 their last seven). Kenny expects Allen to control a slumping O’s lineup, the Guardians’ pen to hold any late lead, and Morton’s poor form plus the weak Baltimore bullpen to be decisive. He said this play is “very likely” to land in his pinned comment despite the short five-game card.

Cash Out Sports Picks backed the Cleveland Guardians on the moneyline at Progressive Field. He liked rookie left-hander Logan Allen’s identical 4.06 ERA home and away but noted the sharper home peripherals: 1.31 WHIP, a higher K-rate, and fewer walks. Baltimore’s road starter has been awful (6.81 ERA, .297 BAA) and was tagged for five runs in five innings by Cleveland earlier in the season. Offensively, the Orioles have produced only 33 runs over their last 10 contests and sit 27th in wOBA and 26th in wRC+ versus lefties, a long-standing weakness. Cleveland’s bats have been trending up, winning four home games since the break and looking to push their home record above .500. With the matchup tilting toward Cleveland on the mound and at the plate, he advised taking the Guardians.

Bill Harrelson said Jose Ramirez is a strong bet to score a run on Thursday. Ramirez has cashed this prop in 9 of his last 10 games and in all three games of the current series versus Baltimore (3 runs in Game 1, 1 in Game 2, 1 in Game 3). Over his last 12 contests he has scored in 11, and dating back further he is 13-for-20. Historically versus the Orioles he has scored in 9 of 13 meetings (69 %). Sportsbooks are heavily shaded toward the over on his run prop—FanDuel opened at −150 with similar juice on Caesars, Hard Rock, and Sleeper—indicating implied probability above 60 %. Harrelson added that Ramirez is averaging roughly 4.5 plate appearances per game and owns a .267 OBP versus projected starter Charlie Morton, giving him plenty of opportunities to get aboard and come around to score. All signs point to the Cleveland star staying hot and crossing the plate at least once.

Bill Harrelson backed Jose Ramirez to record a run, pointing out the Guardians’ switch-hitting star has cashed this prop in 9 of his last 10 and an even gaudier 11 of his last 12. He has crossed the plate in all three games of the current Orioles series (three runs in Game 1, one in Games 2 and 3). Books agree, with FanDuel hanging the line at −150 and every major shop shaded to the over. Ramirez is averaging roughly 4.5 plate appearances a night and owns a 69 % hit rate (9-of-13) versus Baltimore over the past two seasons. Harrelson acknowledged Ramirez’s modest .267 OBP off scheduled starter Charlie Morton but views the hitter’s current form and lineup volume as overwhelming positives. Bottom line: he expects another trip around the bases and is betting the ‘score a run’ prop.

Drew Martin backed the Guardians at ‑110 in Thursday’s getaway-day matinee. He wants to fade Charlie Morton, noting the veteran’s 5.60+ ERA, six walks over his last two outings, and the seven earned runs he surrendered to Tampa in his most recent start. Logan Allen brings a steadier profile: a 4.00 ERA overall and, more importantly, 5.2 scoreless innings with six strikeouts and only two hits in his earlier meeting with Baltimore this season. Martin added that Cleveland owns MLB’s best wRC+ over the past week while Baltimore’s lineup has slumped post-All-Star break, giving the Guardians both pitching and offensive edges.

Malcolm Bamford said Cleveland is the right side in both the first-five and full-game markets. He noted that, although the Guardians look like a basic .500 club, they are 39-30 when facing left-handed pitching, while the Orioles are just 12-17 and a dreadful 8-18-3 in the first five innings against southpaws. Logan Allen has been steady with a 4.06 ERA home and away, whereas Charlie Morton just got rocked in Tampa and now owns a 6.81 road ERA. Bamford also trusts Cleveland’s bullpen edge, so he laid the short price on the Guardians moneyline and will sprinkle the F5 as well.

It’s The Final Round said Angel Martinez is his favorite Cleveland bat against Zach Eflin. Eflin has been a mess: he has not pitched since June 28, and his last three outings before the IL stint were brutal (5 H/4 ER in 1 IP; 10 H/6 ER in 3 IP; 12 H/7 ER in 5 IP). In June he allowed a .396 opponent average and is surrendering a .347 average to left-handed hitters and .311 on the road. Cleveland’s offense is smoking hot since the break, scoring 8-8-8-10-6 runs in five games. Martinez, a switch-hitter who will bat left-handed versus the righty Eflin (and flips to his stronger right side if Baltimore brings in a lefty), is hitting .458 out of the break with 11 hits, four multi-hit efforts, one homer, four RBI, and six runs. Versus right-handed pitching post-break he owns a .429 average. Batting second behind Steven Kwan means RBI chances if Kwan reaches, and with Jose Ramirez behind him he has strong run equity. The new AI model the tout uses spits out a 33 % probability Martinez records multiple hits. All arrows point to riding the hot bat in a plus matchup for betting hit props or DFS cash games.

Cash Out Sports Picks took Cleveland on the money line. He pointed to Baltimore rookie Brandon Young getting shelled for seven runs—including three homers to Kyle Stowers—his last time out and noted the Orioles rank dead last in slugging versus left-handed pitching, a bad recipe against southpaw Joey Cantillo. Neither starter is expected to work deep, but Baltimore’s bullpen is graded as one of MLB’s five or six worst, while Cleveland’s relief corps just carried the club to a 10-5 win on Monday. That overall pitching advantage plus recent Guardians momentum steered the tout to Cleveland.

Kenny G sided with Cleveland on the moneyline at roughly –135, calling it the only direction that made even marginal sense. His case was built on multiple factors: Tomiuki Sagano has posted a 4.44 ERA and has been tagged in two of his last three outings, while Baltimore’s bullpen continues to sit bottom-six in MLB ERA. The Birds’ bats are ice-cold (five total runs in their last three games), and they own an MLB-best 33-17-1 UNDER record on the road, suggesting run support may again be thin. Cleveland has quietly won four of its last five, Jose Ramirez has finally heated up, and Kenny trusts the Guardian relief corps more than Baltimore’s. Although Tanner Bibee (5-9, 4.29 ERA) has had his own struggles, Kenny noted that the Guardians are still a respectable 22-24 at home and currently swinging the bat better (8-2-8-6-6 runs their last five). All told, he believes the price is fair enough to side with the Guardians in their own park.

Bill Harrelson advised taking Jose Ramirez over 0.5 runs because the Guardians third-baseman is red-hot at the plate. Ramirez has crossed the dish in nine of his last ten games (including four of his last five) and 10 of his last 20. Even though he was ice-cold earlier in the year, Harrelson believes the recent heater is sustainable given Ramirez’s elite skill set and the fact he generally gets 4–6 plate appearances per game from the three-hole. Versus Baltimore, he has scored in six of his last ten dating back to last season. Harrelson called the pitching matchup “about a wash,” so run-production should come down to Ramirez staying hot rather than an unfavorable arm. FanDuel’s odds agree with the over, reinforcing the play.

Cash Out Sports Picks recommended taking the Orioles outright in the series opener. He pointed out that Cleveland has dropped 8 of its last 10 at Progressive Field and owns a mediocre 3.98 team ERA (18th) with a 1.34 WHIP (24th). Offensively the Guardians rank 26th in runs, 28th in slugging and dead-last in batting average, so they rarely bail out that staff. Starter Tanner Bybee has been in free-fall, surrendering 16 hits and 11 runs over his last 14.1 innings and was torched by Baltimore on April 17th (6 ER, 3 HR in 5.2 IP). With the Birds healthier and swinging the bats well, the tout believes the matchup strongly favors Baltimore even on the road.

Dylan Rockford also grabbed the Guardians at –132, pricing them as high as –140. His handicap leans on three points: 1) Bibee’s 2.57 home ERA and 0.93 WHIP, 2) an Orioles offense that drops to a .228 average and just 3.62 runs per game on the road, and 3) a Cleveland relief corps hovering near the top-10 while Baltimore’s pen has leaked oil since the break. He believes Cleveland’s current offensive uptick makes them the better second-half club and trusts their pen far more in the late innings.

Malcom Bamford laid the –135 with Cleveland, calling Baltimore fade-worthy until Tomoyuki Sugano finds his form again. Sugano has been torched for 16 earned runs over his last three outings and has allowed at least three earned in six straight starts. Bamford likes the matchup for Tanner Bibee, who owns a 2.57 ERA and .217 BAA at home and should keep the ball in the yard against an Orioles lineup that struggles away from Camden Yards (-.080 drop in OPS on the road). Cleveland’s bats have heated up (eight runs on Sunday) and their bullpen has been markedly steadier than Baltimore’s, which has coughed up multiple late leads in July. Add in the Guardians’ strong home record and Bamford is comfortable backing them at anything better than –140.

Eric Lindquist flagged Nolan Jones as his favorite home-run/total bases prop for the Orioles-Guardians matchup because of Tamayuki Sagano’s brutal splits against left-handed hitters. Lindquist noted Sagano is surrendering an expected ISO well north of .200 and an 11.3 % barrel rate to lefties, exactly the profile Progressive Field’s short right-center alley punishes. Jones, meanwhile, owns a 46.1 % hard-hit rate, 13° average launch angle and a .337 xwOBA versus right-handed pitching despite a chilly slash line that has kept his odds juicy. With just a 14 % strike-out rate, Jones puts the ball in play often enough to let that underlying power show. Lindquist expects positive regression to arrive Monday and is taking shots at the HR prop plus ancillary DFS exposure.

B Wade backed Gunnar Henderson to score over 6.5 fantasy points. Henderson hit the mark in four of five games heading into the All-Star break and has smashed it in all three contests since (15, 12, and 9 FP). He faces Cleveland right-hander Tanner Bibee, against whom he is 3-for-6 with a homer, and owns a .311 average versus righties overall. Henderson has topped 6.5 FP in seven of his last eight games and eight of his last 10 against Guardians pitching. With the Orioles’ leadoff man scorching and sitting in a plus splits spot, Wade likes the over.