Scott Reichel said the only way to attack Orioles-Rays is to lay the –0.5 on Tampa in the first five innings. He trusts Drew Rasmussen’s 2.55 ERA and 5–1 run over his last six starts far more than Charlie Morton’s ugly 7.97 road ERA. Rasmussen has allowed just two combined earned runs in his last four outings, but Reichel noted the minor red flag of 13 hits surrendered in his past two appearances after giving up only 14 in the previous five. Still, he believes Baltimore’s offense rarely strings together late rallies, so fading Morton early is the safest path. Tampa has scored 7-plus runs in six of its last ten and just swept the Mets, while the Orioles’ lineup goes quiet once it falls behind. Reichel projects a quick Tampa lead and would only look at a Rays team-total over if he wanted additional exposure.

Kenny G recommended laying –155 with the Rays behind Drew Rasmussen. Rasmussen owns a 2.55 ERA and Tampa is 5-0 in his last five outings, even though his most recent start (5 IP, 4 ER vs Mets) was below standard. He faces an Orioles lineup that has cratered to 24th in runs and 21st in batting average and will hand the ball to veteran ‘Uncle Charlie’ (3-7, 6.05 ERA) whose recent renaissance came against bottom-five offenses (Angels, A’s, White Sox, Cardinals). The real edge, Kenny said, is in the bullpens: Tampa’s relievers rank second in MLB with a 3.02 ERA, while Baltimore’s group is sinking fast at 4.62 and has allowed multiple late-game meltdowns, including Wednesday’s 12-8 collapse. Both teams trend under at Tropicana Field (Rays 27-15-3, O’s 24-12-1 on the road), but Kenny doesn’t trust Baltimore’s pen enough to chase the Under 8.5. He prices Tampa closer to –175 and is comfortable playing the Rays up to –160.

Just A Bet Outside spotlighted Jonathan Aranda as a must-consider bat against Charlie Morton. Aranda sports a .458 average over the past week (hits in 7 of 10, multi-hit games in 3 of the last 4) and is slashing .372 with a 191 WRC+ at Tropicana. Morton has yielded 69 hits in 61 innings and often scuffles when behind in counts. With hot, humid conditions boosting carry in Tampa, the host likes Aranda for single-hit parlays, two-plus-hit ladders, and mid-tier DFS builds.

B Wade is betting Gunnar Henderson to record at least one single (over 0.5). The 22-year-old has notched a single in 10 straight games and 14 of his last 20. Versus the Rays he is 12-for-15 on this prop lifetime and owns a 4-for-12 (.333) line against Wednesday starter Taj Bradley, who still sports a 4+ ERA and 1.30 WHIP even as other Tampa arms have heated up. Wade likes Henderson’s recent shift toward contact hitting and says the combination of form, matchup and history makes the single prop one of the safest spots on the board.

Just A Bet Outside wagered that Gunnar Henderson records at least one hit, anchoring the first leg of his hitter parlay. Henderson rides an 11-game hit streak, batting .373 in June and .346 over the last week. He torches right-handed pitching (.319 AVG, .534 SLG, seven of eight homers) and is 4-for-12 lifetime off Taj Bradley. Bradley’s 10% walk rate and modest home splits make him vulnerable at Tropicana, which historically plays neutral for contact. The tout expects Henderson’s elite bat speed to keep humming and cash the single-hit prop.

Bill Harrelson recommended OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs for Brandon Lowe. Lowe has cashed this number in eight of his last ten games, including six straight, and 15 of his last 20 overall (56% on the year, 38-for-68). At Tropicana Field he has been even better, topping 1.5 in 12 of his last 15 home games while averaging 3.2 combined HRRBI. He is locked into the middle of Tampa’s lineup and averages 4.1 plate appearances per game. Only PrizePicks and Underdog are still hanging 1.5, giving an edge before the market potentially bumps him to 2.0. Harrelson likes the matchup with Baltimore’s right-handed starter and notes Lowe has hit this prop in each of the last three meetings with the Orioles. Given the volume, form, and limited market availability, Harrelson expects the hot streak to continue.

Eric Lindquist urged bettors to smash Cedric Mullins to homer if books hang +350 or longer. The forecast calls for 93°F and swamp-like humidity that will keep Tropicana’s roof open, a scenario Lindquist called “one of the best hitting environments we’ve seen dropped into that park.” Mullins brings a 40 % pull rate and 16 ° average launch angle versus right-hand pitching, traits that should play perfectly against Ryan Pepiot, whose four-seam/split combo yields a 41 % fly-ball rate. With warm, dense air adding extra carry and Mullins locked into the leadoff spot, Lindquist labeled the prop a +EV dart he plans to fire the moment odds post.

Eric Lindquist said Jackson Holliday’s home-run prop is worth an auto-bet at +350 or better given Monday’s freakish hitting conditions in St. Petersburg. Weather models show 93°F with 65-75 % humidity inside an opened Tropicana Field roof, effectively turning the park into a launching pad. Lindquist highlighted Ryan Pepiot’s 17° average allowed launch angle at Triple-A and the fact the Rays right-hander relies heavily on elevated four-seamers—exactly the pitch profile Holliday punishes (45 % hard-hit rate vs high heaters in Double-A/Triple-A data). With warm, moisture-laden air dramatically boosting carry and Baltimore’s rookie batting from the left side against Pepiot, Lindquist views any +350 or longer number as a clear positive-EV swing for bettors hunting long-ball tickets.

Just A Bet Outside said Yandy Diaz is a strong hitter-prop target for Monday, specifically the Over on 1.5 hits. Diaz enters the slate with a hit in 9 of his last 10 games and multiple hits in 5 of the last 6, buoyed by a .455 average over the past week—fifth-best in MLB. He’ll face right-hander Zach Eflin, who is still surrendering a .241 average to same-handed bats despite improved 2024 peripherals. Diaz actually prefers righties, slashing .283 versus RHP compared to .210 versus southpaws, and his elite K-avoidance profile (career 13.7% K-rate) keeps balls in play. The only caution flag is Diaz’s odd .236 mark at Tropicana Field, but the tout expects regression toward his career .282 home clip in the dome’s hitter-friendly summer conditions. With Diaz’s current form, matchup splits, and reliable park factors, the host recommends laddering Diaz to 2+ hits at plus money in hitter prop markets and sprinkling him into DFS cash-game stacks.

Without an official line on the board, Dylan Rockford already made Tampa Bay a ‑155 favorite and intends to fire on the Rays if the market opens shorter. He highlighted Tampa’s 23-10 straight-up record at Tropicana Field and a top-five bullpen during their month-long surge. The Rays just swept the Mets and are averaging 5.2 runs per game during the streak while forcing opposing starters to throw 19.1 pitches per inning. Rockford is not an Eflin believer and pointed out that Baltimore’s offense drops to 3.6 runs per game on the road while the bullpen remains bottom-10 in ERA. “Unless the books hang something absurd, the Rays are an autoplay,” he concluded.

Kenny G advised laying the modest –125 with the surging Rays. Tampa has plated 9, 8 and 7 runs in a three-game sweep of the Mets and has climbed to 11th in MLB in runs scored. He loves Ryan Pepiot’s current form—3.31 ERA, nine strikeouts in his last outing and just eight earned over his past five starts—plus a dominant bullpen (3.05 ERA, second-best in baseball). Baltimore, meanwhile, is 14-21 on the road and still 25th in runs despite yesterday’s explosion. Kenny said the Rays’ balanced offense and elite relief corps give them edges in every phase, making –125 “way too cheap” for a home side that’s 23-20 in the Trop. He expects Tampa to win a low-scoring game and labeled the moneyline play his favorite side on the slate.