Kenny G offered a tentative endorsement of Arizona at –135, riding Merrill Kelly’s 13-inning scoreless streak that lowered his ERA to 3.18. Kelly blanked Seattle and Atlanta in back-to-back wins, whereas Nick Pivetta has been torched in consecutive outings by the Giants and Dodgers and now draws an Arizona lineup ranked fourth in runs and third in both slugging and OBP. San Diego’s bats have cratered to 22nd in runs, posting 7, 1, 2, 11, 7, 1 and 0 over their last seven games, and the club is 20-15-1 to the under on the road. Although the Diamondbacks’ bullpen is a concern (5.14 ERA, fourth worst in MLB), Kenny expects Kelly to work deep enough to limit exposure and trusts the offense to give him margin. He projected a 6-3 Arizona victory and would play the Snakes down to –140.

For the late 4:10 Eastern start, Martin flipped sides from Saturday and is taking the Diamondbacks over the Padres. Merrill Kelly has thrown back-to-back scoreless outings of 6 and 7 innings with 15 strikeouts and just 5 hits allowed. Nick Pivetta, by contrast, has surrendered 9 earned runs over his last 10 frames with only 8 Ks. Martin, a believer in "what have you done for me lately," trusts Kelly’s current form and notes Arizona’s lineup has been the hotter of the two clubs this week. He recommends a straight Diamondbacks moneyline play.

Despite admitting the Padres burned him yesterday, Kenny G leaned right back to San Diego at +123, citing a clear pitching edge over Zac Gallen and Arizona’s bullpen. Ryan Burgert has quietly strung together two strong starts (10.1 IP, 1 ER combined), and the Friars support him with MLB’s sixth-best bullpen ERA (3.14). Gallen owns a bloated 5.15 ERA and just surrendered three homers at Cincinnati, while the Diamondbacks’ relief corps is fourth worst in baseball (5.21 ERA). Arizona’s explosive offense (top-six in runs, average and OBP) masks those pitching woes, but Kenny thinks a cold Padres lineup can still scratch out enough against Gallen. With both clubs basically .500 in their respective road/home splits and the total sitting at 9.5, he leans Padres and a correlated under, but the money-line dog is his preferred angle in this matchup.

Guy Boston Sports is doubling down on Arizona, recommending both the money line (around –130) and a Diamondbacks Team Total Over 4.5. San Diego sends rookie Adam Berger—50 % four-seam usage—against a D-backs lineup ranking top-five versus fastballs over the past month. Conversely, Zac Gallen’s own heater matches up well with a Padres offense that sits 29th against the pitch in that same span. While San Diego has won both of Berger’s starts, the tout trusts Gallen’s 29 % K-rate and 3.01 SIERA far more. He conceded Arizona’s bullpen can be dicey, so the team-total over insulates bettors if Gallen stumbles. Both pens are rested after light usage Thursday.

JDBetsHQ targeted Zac Gallen over 1.5 walks issued. The ace has been a bit scatter-shot lately, posting 3.0 BB per start in his last three and sitting near the top of today’s board in projected walk rate. He now faces a Padres lineup that ranks near the league lead in free passes (3.6 per game) while owning one of the lowest strikeout percentages on the slate, forcing pitchers to nibble. Gallen’s pitch-count trend compounds the edge—he has thrown 100+ in four straight, giving extra opportunities for two balls to slip wide of the zone. With no glaring BvP red flags and a friendly 1.5 line, the capper labeled the walk prop his “weird but favorite” bet of the desert matchup.

It's The Final Round said Manny Machado is a must-bet for Saturday player props against Zac Gallen. The tout pointed out that Gallen has surrendered a .306 batting average to right-handed hitters over his last three starts, while Machado has obliterated righties for a .542 average in the past 10 days (26 PA). Machado has cleared 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs in 9 of his last 11, topped 1.5 total bases in 7 of 9, scored a run in 7 of 8, and logged a hit in 8 of 10. His launch-angle sweet-spot rate sits at 37.6%, ranking 67th in MLB, indicating quality contact. The tout also referenced the hitter’s decent history vs Gallen (4-for-13, .308). Recommended angles included over 1.5 total bases, Hits+Runs+RBIs, or simply parlaying him for a hit depending on posted odds.

The Bettor Mark locked in Padres +145 on the moneyline, calling the number 'fishy but too good to pass.' He noted Arizona starter Zac Gallen has quietly been leaking runs over his past four outings (4.82 ERA in that stretch) while San Diego’s bats have started clicking. On the other side, Padres arm Berger is settling into the rotation with two straight quality starts after transitioning from relief. Mark believes the market is over-valuing Gallen’s name brand and under-estimating San Diego’s upside, making the Padres a live underdog worth a full wager.

Drew Martin is taking the Padres at +130, predicting another rough outing for Zac Gallen. The Diamondbacks’ right-hander owns a 5.00 ERA/FIP combo, has issued three or more walks in three of his last four starts, and just surrendered five earned runs in five innings at home to Pittsburgh. San Diego counters with 25-year-old rookie Burghard (third MLB start) who fired 5.1 one-hit innings against Milwaukee, and the Padres possess a sizable bullpen edge. Martin likes riding the hot rookie arm while fading Gallen’s recent control issues and inflated run prevention, calling the underdog “the barking dog in the desert” for Saturday night.

Kenny G grabbed the Padres at +105, calling them his "dog of the day." He wants to fade Ryne Nelson, who owns a 5-plus ERA and has yet to face San Diego this season. Kenny pointed out Arizona’s fourth-worst bullpen ERA (5.10) and said that late-inning liability magnifies any early damage. While he respects the Diamondbacks’ lineup—top-3 in OBP, runs and slugging—he thinks Padre starter (he referred to him as “Colec,” the probable arm opposite Nelson) is "way better" and backed by a pitching staff that holds opponents to a sub-4 road ERA. San Diego is a .500 road club and 19-14-1 to the under away from Petco, numbers that often correlate with tight, lower-scoring games Kenny likes to play as short dogs. Even if the Padres’ bats are only average, he believes they won’t need a huge number to cash given the starting-pitching and bullpen disparity. He is comfortable playing San Diego down to even money.

B Wade loves Juan Soto OVER 1.5 hits+runs+RBIs at even money. The slugger snapped his May slump when Colorado came to town, then posted 6- and 5-total bases games versus Washington. He has cleared this number in five of six meetings with the Nationals this year and in seven of his last 10 overall. Soto owns a ridiculous 6-for-10 line with two homers against projected starter Michael Soroka, batting .600 with a .400 ISO in that matchup. Facing his former club – one he has torched all season – and with elite BvP plus recent multi-hit form, Wade called it possibly his favorite play on the slate.