Cash Out Sports Picks laid the money line with San Diego, saying talent gap and Washington’s slide trump Dylan Cease’s rough road splits (0-6, 6.27 ERA, 1.39 WHIP in 51.2 away innings). The tout noted Cease’s perfect history against the Nats—one hit allowed over 16 career frames, including last year’s Nationals Park no-hitter—as a ceiling Washington cannot match. Opposing starter Michael Soroka has a 5.67 home ERA, and the Nationals have dropped his last six outings while scoring just 2.7 runs per game. With San Diego refreshed post-break and clinging to playoff position, the stronger lineup, bullpen, and defensive metrics make the Padres “the side to ride.”

Millz Young likes Dylan Cease to eclipse his 6-strikeout line. Cease has cashed this number in three of his last five starts (60% clip), and Young believes the All-Star break reset means the Padres right-hander will come out fresh and attack hitters the way bettors remember from his White Sox days. He projected Cease for seven or more Ks and played the over.

Perrault laid ‑1.5 runs with San Diego at +105, trusting the Padres to capitalize on Michael Soroka’s brutal form. Soroka sports a 5.67 home ERA, 1-4 record, and has surrendered 17 ER in 27 IP; Washington has dropped all six of his recent starts by scores of 8-1, 11-2, 8-2, 13-7, 10-6, and 4-3, covering the run line in five straight. Although Dylan Cease carries an ugly 6.27 ERA and 0-6 road record, Perrault believes post-break urgency and the Padres’ superior lineup give them clear two-run upside against a Nationals club that is 18-28 at home.

Smith doubled down on the Nationals, playing both the first-five and full-game moneylines. He argued that MacKenzie Gore is simply the better pitcher right now, while Dylan Cease’s recent form and shaky command make the Padres overpriced at –172. Although Washington’s bullpen is a concern, Smith believes the combination of Gore’s strikeout upside and the Padres’ inconsistent offense gives the Nats a realistic path to win outright, especially as a sizable home underdog.

Bamford recommended Washington first-five innings at plus money against Dylan Cease. Cease limped into the break at 3-9 with a 4.88 ERA and an alarming 6.27 mark on the road. Meanwhile, Nationals left-hander MacKenzie Gore—fresh off an All-Star nod—owns the superior underlying metrics and should keep San Diego in check early. Bamford wants no part of Washington’s 5.88 bullpen ERA, so isolating the first five allows bettors to attack Cease’s early-game vulnerability without exposing themselves to the relief corps.