Michael Bisping doubled-down on the violence angle for Paul Craig’s return to light-heavyweight, highlighting opponent Rodolfo Bellato’s back-to-back knockouts of Iho Petere (ground-and-pound) and Murtazza Talha on the Contender Series. Bisping framed the matchup as classic grappler-versus-striker but stressed that Craig fights rarely reach the judges because Craig either drags opponents into his guard to hunt triangles (a UFC-record four at 205) or gets clipped by heavy hitters. With Bellato’s 7 career KOs colliding with Craig’s six UFC submissions, Bisping urged bettors to target Inside-the-Distance or Under rounds props instead of money-line sides, predicting "explosive action" from the opening bell.

Bisping predicted an explosive, likely non-decision fight between submission savant Paul Craig and hulking Brazilian striker Rodolfo Bellato. Craig returns to 205 pounds with the weight cut behind him and brings a record six light-heavyweight submissions (four by triangle, a UFC-wide record). Bellato stands 6'3" with seven knockouts, recently fought Jimmy Crute to a draw, and owns a string of ground-and-pound KOs on Contender Series. Bisping believes the clash of Craig’s guard-pulling jiu-jitsu and Bellato’s power shots creates an almost binary outcome—either Craig snares a limb or Bellato lands a fight-ending bomb—making "Fight Doesn’t Go to Decision" or Under rounds props the sharp way to attack betting markets.

Billy Ward said the ideal in-fight angle is to wait until the end of Round 1, then pounce on Rodolfo Bellato’s money-line if Paul Craig empties the clip early. Ward noted Bellato’s Homer-Simpson durability—“he nearly dies in Round 1 of every fight, then rallies”—and Craig’s notorious cardio dump once opponents get slippery, making the Brazilian the higher-percentage side after the first five minutes. Ward expects a live number in the +300 range (better than the current +240 pre-fight price) to appear if Craig scores an early knockdown or extended top control, and stressed that Bellato’s youth (eight years younger) and ability to survive bad positions give him multiple comeback paths over the final two rounds.

Billy Ward hammered Paul Craig by knockout at +2500 on FanDuel, calling it 'an absurd line.' Ward argued Bellato is the light-heavyweight division’s most hittable fighter—knocked down in three of four UFC/Contender Series bouts, nearly finished twice by Jimmy Crute and stunned by Ihor Potieria. Bellato turns around only three months after absorbing heavy damage. On tape, the Brazilian 'plays jiu-jitsu' instead of doing MMA grappling, happily tying up underhooks while eating ground-and-pound. Craig, though an admittedly poor technician on the feet, swings hard and has scored past TKOs (Andre Muniz, Jamahal Hill’s dislocated arm). Ward believes one wild Craig hook or top-position elbow lands often enough to cash far more than the implied 3.8% probability.

Andy Lang warned listeners not to over-focus on the KO prop and instead lay the slightly juicier “inside the distance” number for Rodolfo Bellato. Lang argued Paul Craig no longer wrestles effectively – he has not completed a takedown in years – so Bellato can sprawl, force stand-ups and crack him at range. Once Craig inevitably face-plants, Bellato could just as easily jump on the neck as pound out a TKO, a scenario Lang compared to Carlos Ulberg’s surprise submission. Because KO is only a few cents better than ITD while leaving you exposed to the club-and-sub outcome, Lang believes ITD is the sharper wager. He still expects Bellato to starch Craig inside two rounds, but wants full coverage of all finish methods instead of sweating a ref’s timing or a quick choke.

Jim Malaro advised fading Paul Craig one more time, arguing the Scotsman’s late-career move to 205 spells disaster against Rodolfo Bellato. Craig is 0-4 in his last four stand-up heavy fights and was even out-struck by wrestling-first Bo Nickal. Malaro highlighted that Brendan Allen, Kyle Borralho and Johnny Walker all hurt Craig early simply by refusing to tangle on the mat, and he expects Bellato to copy that blueprint. Bellato is hardly elite but carries real power, a 74-inch reach and throws 5.9 significant strikes per minute—numbers Malaro says will snowball once Craig inevitably gases after the first failed guard pull. He also reminded listeners that Craig already exceeded the age he once set as his retirement cutoff, suggesting motivation is purely financial. The pick is Bellato by KO/TKO at anything +120 or better, with a hedge on Bellato Round-2 prop (+475) to capture the expected cardio collapse.

MMA Guru recommended backing Rodolfo Bellato to knock out Paul Craig, citing multiple red flags for the beloved underdog. Guru emphasized that Craig’s trademark game—body kick feints into guard-pulling and imanari rolls—has grown predictable and his chin has deteriorated, as shown in recent early stoppages by Caio Borralho and Johnny Walker. He contrasted that with Bellato’s ‘T-800’ style: durable, physically strong and willing to throw tight boxing combinations that punish opponents who over-extend. Guru pointed out Bellato’s experience surviving bad grappling spots against Jimmy Crute (who previously submitted Craig) and highlighted recent footage of Bellato sharpening his scramble defense with Luke Rockhold in camp. While acknowledging Craig’s historical upset wins over Magomed Ankalaev and Jamahal Hill, Guru argued those came at Craig’s peak and that the Scotsman now looks content with his legacy. Because Bellato should be able to stuff the first few takedowns, force Craig to pull half-hearted guard, and then rain ground-and-pound, Guru projected a mid-fight TKO and prefers Bellato KO/TKO props rather than laying a wide money-line.

Dan Tom told fantasy players Bellato is a superior high-salary DFS option compared to Michael Morales in the main event. Bellato scores in multiple columns: he throws in combination to the head, body, and legs, hunts ground-and-pound if he ends up on top, and owns legitimate knockout power at light heavyweight. Morales, while a massive favorite, does not aggressively pursue takedowns, rarely strings punches together, and could be stuck in a low-volume outside kickboxing match with Gilbert Burns—limiting fantasy ceiling. Tom expects Bellato to either secure an early KO (strikes bonus) or pile up significant strikes and potential knockdowns before finishing Craig, giving him 100-plus DraftKings point upside even at a $9K-plus salary. If you are paying up for one prohibitive favorite on this slate, Tom believes Bellato’s finishing style provides far better bang for the DFS buck.

Dan Tom agreed Bellato should finish Craig but argued bettors are "priced out" on the chalky money-line (north of –500), Inside-the-Distance (-280), and KO (-180). Instead, he suggested a plus-money stab on Bellato Round 2 at roughly +275 to +300. Tom explained that Bellato has an odd trend of getting his "stuff wrecked" in Round 1—Jimmy Crute mounted him for four minutes and Ihor Potieria rocked him early—yet he rallies once the adrenaline settles. Craig, meanwhile, is unlikely to replicate those fast starts because his stand-up is poor and he rarely initiates offense, relying on opponents to make mistakes. If Bellato uses his developing jab, body work, and calf kicks from his camp with Alex Pereira to stay safe early, Tom expects Craig to fade and Bellato’s power combinations to land in the second frame. The Round 2 prop captures both Bellato’s historical pacing and Craig’s tendency to wilt after an initial grappling flurry while still paying bettors better than 2-to-1.

Michael Lurato said the betting market is wildly inflated on Bellato at –550 but still expects the Brazilian to finish Paul Craig inside the distance. Lurato called Craig an "opportunistic-only" fighter whose wins come when opponents make catastrophic mistakes; he never sets anything up himself. Craig’s striking remains, in Lurato’s words, "pedestrian"—he throws from his hips, leaves his chin on a shelf, and has been hurt repeatedly whenever foes keep the fight standing. Bellato is a natural 205-pounder (Lurato even suggested he could be a small heavyweight) with real one-shot power, serviceable wrestling and the positional awareness to avoid Craig’s guard. Lurato noted Craig’s move back up to light heavyweight further tilts physicality toward Bellato and expects the Brazilian to “walk right through him” unless he voluntarily jumps into Craig’s guard. Because of those advantages, Lurato advised either passing the money-line altogether or building Bellato Inside-the-Distance into parlays if you must have action, predicting a knockout no later than the second round.

Gumby Vreeland called Rodolfo Bellato a "lock" so long as he refuses to follow Paul Craig to the mat. Vreeland reminded listeners that Jimmy Crute—a physically similar light-heavyweight—couldn’t bully Bellato in the clinch, while Craig’s entire win condition is coaxing opponents into his guard. Bellato owns a two-to-one significant-strike volume edge over Craig and has yet to be taken down in the UFC. Vreeland emphasized that Craig has been knocked out five times in his last ten fights and looks even smaller back at 205. As long as Bellato keeps it standing—something Vreeland says "only Magomed Ankalaev was once goofy enough not to do"—the Brazilian’s faster hands and heavier kicks should secure a mid-fight KO at chalk odds around –500.

Jeff Fox laid the –500 on Rodolfo Bellato, explaining Paul Craig’s time has passed. Craig has lost three straight and seven of his last ten, with five knockout defeats underscoring his deteriorating durability. Bellato, nine years younger, showcased stout takedown defense by stuffing every shot Jimmy Crute attempted, and Fox points out that is the sole requirement for beating Craig—stay upright and pick him apart. The Brazilian throws twice the significant strike volume of Craig (per UFC stats) and carries real pop, setting up a potential KO once Craig’s guard pulls fail. Fox also dislikes Craig jumping back to 205, fearing he’ll again be bullied by bigger, stronger men. He projects Bellato to sprawl, brawl, and finish inside two rounds.

Monk urged players to smash Paul Craig at $6,800 in large-field tournaments despite picking Rodolfo Bellato to win outright. The fight carries a –600 Inside-the-Distance line and an Under 1.5 rounds prop of –135, yet Bellato has never faced a legitimate submission threat: Jimmy Crute went 4:00 of top control and landed more strikes per minute, and the only other opponents to attempt takedowns (Talha on DWCS) went 0-for-5. Craig is back at light heavyweight, where his chin historically holds up better and his guard-pulling entries have tapped Jamahal Hill, Nikita Krylov, and Andre Muniz. DraftKings scoring loves his style—sweeps, reversals, and submission attempts—so Monk flagged the round-specific props of +1,600 (R2) and +2,000 (R3) for added leverage. He plans to be well over the field on Craig while still giving Bellato exposure, calling the bout a classic all-in GPP stack but emphasizing Craig’s ceiling relative to price.

Kunath advised backing Rodolfo Bellato inside the distance against Paul Craig. Craig has dropped five of his past six, is back at light heavyweight after an ill-fated cut to 185 and has hinted at retirement since before age 35—he is now 37. Kunath respects Craig’s resume (submissions of Ankalaev and Jamahal Hill) but emphasized the Scot still "offers very little on the feet" and relies on pulling guard. Bellato, meanwhile, is a grappler first who has shown increasing willingness to trade and the ability to survive bad spots (came back versus Ehor Potieria and battled to a draw with Jimmy Crute). Because Bellato can neutralize Craig’s guard and owns the heavier hands—landing 3.9 significant strikes per minute with 55 % accuracy—Kunath expects the Brazilian to find a knockout and possibly send Craig into retirement.