Billy Ward wants to exploit Petr Yan’s notorious slow starts by grabbing Marcus McGhee at +3.5 points on the pre-fight spread (-105) and then hunting a discounted Yan money-line live after McGee likely pockets Round 1. Ward argued that the 35-year-old McGee is every bit as explosive and durable as teammate Sean O’Malley—who many believe lost to Yan despite the decision—and brings fight-changing power plus takedown defense that has yet to be cracked in the UFC. Meanwhile, Yan routinely surrenders the opening frame (the analyst coined it “Petr Yandez”) before turning up wrestling and pressure late. Ward expects a similar script here: McGee lands the more eye-catching shots early, cashing the +3.5, then Yan’s grinding clinch-and-trip game secures Rounds 2 and 3. If Yan drops to roughly -200 after the first stanza, Ward will pounce, aiming to cash both the spread bet and the live ML for a middle that pays no matter whose hand is raised.

Matty Betss is backing Petr Yan either by decision or with the 12-to-1 Round-3 prop. He reminded listeners that Yan notoriously gives away Round 1, then ramps up volume, leg-kicks and wrestling as the fight wears on. Betss expects McGhee—an older late-career prospect—to land something flashy early, but doubts he can handle Yan’s combination punching and calf-kick assault once the former champ downloads reads. Yan has out-struck elite names like Deiveson Figueiredo 121-53 and Corey Sandhagen over five rounds, and Betss believes he can wrestle here if he wants to add banked control time. Because the Russian often turns it on in the back half, Betss likes pairing Yan moneyline with “fight to start Round 3,” or taking the longshot Round-3 finish as a secondary angle while keeping the safer decision ticket in pocket.

Bedtime MMA picked Petr Yan to edge Marcus McGee by 29-28 decision. He acknowledged Yan’s trademark slow starts and forecast McGee stealing Round 1 with busy calf-kicks, sharp jabs and solid all-around striking. Once the ‘data download’ finishes, Bedtime expects classic Yan adjustments—stance switches, heavy body kicks, well-timed level-changes and brutal clinch knees. Yan’s defensive layers and hand speed should blunt McGee’s boxing exchanges, while his opportunistic wrestling keeps the American guessing. By Round 3 the tout anticipates a “master-class” sequence: Yan flowing through counters, mixing trips and head-kicks, and out-working McGee everywhere. Because McGee is durable and well-rounded, Bedtime sees no late finish but a decisive second-and-third-round swing that cashes Yan decision tickets.

Sniper recommended sprinkling Marcus McGee at $6,900 as a salary-saving punt. The bantamweight is 10-1 overall, 4-0 in the UFC and owns three finishes plus a dominant win over Jonathan Martinez, yet comes in as a +300 underdog. Sniper emphasized that Petr Yan’s "terrible fight IQ" leaves room for an upset; a McGee victory would almost certainly land him on the DraftKings optimal lineup. Even in a decision loss, McGee’s activity could produce 30–40 points—acceptable value for the price. Sniper will be overweight on McGee in tournaments while still acknowledging Yan wins the matchup a majority of the time.

Sniper said Petr Yan is usable in cash games but should be underweight in GPPs because the matchup projects for a low-scoring decision. Yan is a –400 favorite over Marcus McGee and the fight is –260 to go the distance, yet he carries a $9,300 DraftKings salary. Sniper projected roughly 150 significant strikes if this stays at range, translating to only 90 DK points—well short of the 110-plus normally required to smash that price tag. With little wrestling or knock-down equity expected, Yan’s ceiling is capped. Sniper will roster him mainly in head-to-heads and double-ups for win security, choosing to allocate most tournament salary to higher-variance fights.

Dan Tom said the smartest way to bet this matchup is Yan by decision at –150 and he staked 2.5 units there. Tom argued Yan’s high-guard boxing and patient “download the data” approach neutralize McGee’s only real win condition—an early, explosive KO. He pointed out that Yan has never been cleanly stopped in 20 professional bouts, while McGee’s gas tank has betrayed him whenever opponents force extended pocket exchanges. Because Yan typically turns up the volume after feeling an opponent’s power, Tom sprinkled less than 0.25 units on Yan Round 3 at +1000 as a cheap hedge that still covers the decision exposure. Tom noted the lack of trustworthy parlay legs on this card, calling the decision prop a stand-alone anchor that avoids laying –375 on the money line yet still captures Yan’s most likely path given McGee’s durability through Rounds 1-2 and Yan’s historical preference to win on minutes rather than chase reckless finishes.

Michael Lurato recommended backing Petr Yan despite the hefty –375 price, calling him a safe parlay piece against the volatile Marcus McGee. Lurato noted Yan’s clean, layered boxing, underrated offensive wrestling, and improved emotional discipline—traits that kept him competitive in razor-close losses to Sean O’Malley and Aljamain Sterling. McGee’s win condition hinges on landing an explosive power shot, something Lurato views as unlikely given Yan’s high guard and ability to build reads over five rounds. He dismissed the notion that Yan is declining, pointing to the O’Malley fight many observers scored for Yan and reminding listeners that unforced errors, not skill erosion, cost him against Sterling. Unless Yan shows up injured or fights an uncharacteristically sloppy game plan, Lurato sees McGee’s ‘party-trick’ explosiveness failing against a top-five bantamweight who checks every box—making Yan a reliable piece for two-team parlays or round-robins.

Kunath called Petr Yan a classic co-main-event ownership trap. With only three rounds to work, Yan historically fails to produce slate-breaking numbers and instead grinds to decisions that hover in the 70-point range. Kunath expects Yan’s name value to inflate ownership in DFS despite a capped ceiling, urging players to pivot elsewhere in the high-salary range.

For cash games, Kunath recommended Marcus McGhee at $6,900 as the punt who "probably loses but ideally goes the distance." In McGhee’s lone UFC fight he would have scored 41 DFS points had he lost, so a 25-30 point floor is realistic. That stability allows players to jam high-priced favorites while avoiding volatile exposure. Kunath made it clear he would not play McGhee in tournaments but likes him for salary relief in double-ups.

THE MMA GURU forecasted a vintage Petr Yan performance, calling for a 29-28 (possibly 29-27) decision over Marcus McGhee in their three-round Abu Dhabi bout. Guru expects McGhee’s size and slick boxing to steal the first round, but stressed that bantamweight has steep "barrier-reef" tier drops and Yan occupies a level McGhee has never reached. He noted that McGhee’s best win is a narrow 29-28 over Jonathan Martinez, a result Guru called flimsy given Martinez immediately found the answer with low kicks and then coasted. By contrast, Yan has already out-classed elite names—dominating prime Jose Aldo, going life-and-death with Cory Sandhagen, and surviving Sean O’Malley’s best looks. Guru added that Yan actually *speeds up* in three-rounders, “condensing his work” instead of starting slow like in five-round title fights. He believes Yan’s high-guard boxing, punishing low kicks and body work will begin to snowball late in Round 2, forcing McGhee backward and possibly flirting with a 10-8 or late finish in Round 3. Betting angles he implied: Yan money-line, Yan by decision, and live-betting the Russian if he drops the first frame.

For the third leg of his PrizePicks card, Guru is fading volume, projecting Marcus McGee to land FEWER than 72.5 significant strikes. He believes McGee’s power-punch approach and finishing instincts will keep the bout from turning into a high-paced kickboxing match, making 73 lands unlikely.

TheWeasle sided with Petr Yan by decision against surging striker Marcus McGee. He praised McGee’s top-five-caliber boxing—slick southpaw/orthodox switches, multi-layered combinations and perfect timing that produced knockouts of JP Buys and Gaston Bolaños—but warned that Yan’s 54 % significant-strike accuracy, proven five-round cardio and elite mid-fight reads make him the division’s smartest gun-slinger. The potential swing factor is wrestling: McGee is 7-for-7 in UFC takedown defense, yet those attempts came from JP Buys and Journey Newsom, not a former champion who rag-dolled Aljamain Sterling and Deiveson Figueiredo with outside-step trips and crisp doubles. McGee’s compact, constantly switching stance will blunt some of Yan’s trip entries, but TheWeasle expects Yan to hunt takedowns more aggressively than usual, mix in top control, and dictate pace. In striking exchanges, he advises Yan to initiate rather than sit in the high guard, because standing still allows McGee’s angle-entry combos. If Yan stays offensively present and sprinkles in two to three takedowns, TheWeasle believes the scorecards tilt 29-28 across the board. Betting angles: Yan money line or Decision prop; small hedge on McGee KO for hedge value.

Gumby Vreeland said the best way to attack this bantamweight matchup is to grab Marcus McGhee at +3.5 rounds on the point-spread prop (+120). Vreeland reminded listeners that Petr Yan notoriously gives away the opening frame while downloading reads—he has lost Round 1 on three of the four judges’ cards in his last two fights. McGhee, by contrast, fires immediately; he landed 30 significant strikes in the first five minutes against Jonathan Martinez and averages 6.8 per minute in Round 1 across his UFC tenure. Vreeland expects that early surge to bank McGhee a 10-9 before Yan’s championship experience takes over, meaning bettors only need McGhee to avoid a 30-26 or finish. He labeled the prop a “discounted way to fade Yan’s slow starts without having to call for the outright upset.”

Gumby Vreeland laid out why Petr Yan is still an elite bantamweight striking test that Marcus McGhee is not ready to pass. The only men to beat Yan—Aljamain Sterling (grappling-heavy), Merab Dvalishvili (takedown barrage), and a razor-thin split with Sean O’Malley—either wrestled relentlessly or benefited from questionable judging. McGhee, by contrast, prefers the same pocket-boxing exchanges that Yan excels in. Vreeland noted Yan has out-landed opponents by nearly one strike per minute at the championship level, whereas McGhee’s best scalp is Jonathan Martinez, a sizable step down. He expects McGhee’s early aggression to fade once Yan’s pressure, framing, and combination work start adding up, leading to a clear decision or late stoppage for the former champ. Even at –360, Vreeland believes Yan is a parlay anchor; bettors looking for a better price can take Yan by decision at plus money because every pure striker who has stood with him has been out-pointed over 15 minutes.

Bedtime MMA expects Petr Yan to outclass Marcus McGhee over three rounds, stressing that Yan’s seamless wrestling-boxing mix and championship shot selection will trump McGhee’s size and power. He warned, though, that McGhee trains with Sean O’Malley, so judges might be "pre-loaded for another robbery"—bettors should consider Yan by decision but be prepared for split-card chaos. Compared with Deiveson Figueiredo, McGhee’s raw physicality should pose a tougher puzzle early, yet Yan’s ability to chain takedowns with slick combos will accumulate control time and damage to secure at least two rounds and cash favorite parlays.