Just A Bet Outside said to bet Cristopher Sanchez over 5.5 strikeouts at –122 on FanDuel. Cincinnati owns the league’s highest strike-out rate versus left-handed pitching over the past three weeks (≈30%), and six projected hitters whiff at 24% or higher, highlighted by Elly De La Cruz (30%) and Spencer Steer (28%). Sanchez has cleared this line in five of his last six starts and in seven of 13 road appearances, with recent gems of 11 K at Houston and eight at San Francisco. Because the Phillies left-hander regularly works deep—his outs prop sits at 18.5 and he has logged six innings in 10 of his last 12 outings—the tout needs only one punch-out per frame. Volume plus a strikeout-heavy Reds lineup makes the over the preferred play.

Just A Bet Outside said Cristopher Sanchez is in a premium K environment against Cincinnati. The Reds have run a league-worst 30.9% strike-out rate versus left-handed pitching over the last three weeks, and Sanchez already owns 151 punch-outs in 144.2 innings. He has cleared six strikeouts in five of his past six outings and shows no meaningful platoon drop-off (identical righty/lefty K splits). Even though his road strike-out rate sits at 23.5% compared to 28.8% in Philly, the host expects Sanchez to work deep enough to beat any posted prop—projecting 7–8 Ks provided he reaches his typical 90-pitch workload. That makes the over on his strike-out line and K ladders an attractive betting angle.

Eric Pathy said bettors should grab the Cincinnati Reds as a home underdog for Wednesday. He called them a “live dog” and cited a 33-30 record in his last 63 documented spots backing the Reds in the underdog role. Pathy expects oddsmakers to open Cincinnati as a plus-money side and argues the club’s consistent profitability in these dog situations outweighs the lack of an announced price. The play is framed as a classic value grab—take the short-priced home dog and trust the long-term edge that has already produced a winning record and positive ROI.

Alongside the total, Kenny G is "definitely interested" in Philadelphia at –140. He trusts Christopher Sanchez’s current form (eight-inning shutout of Detroit followed by one earned run over six in Texas) and notes the Phillies’ bullpen has improved to a 4.22 ERA. Hunter Greene has not pitched since June 3rd and is coming off a groin injury, so Kenny questions how deep he can work. With the Reds posting only a 16th-ranked batting average and inconsistent run totals, he believes the price is still short on the superior starter and deeper lineup.

Bill Harrelson advised taking the UNDER 5.5 hits-allowed prop on left-hander Cristopher Sanchez against Cincinnati. The Reds are batting just .203 versus southpaws over their last 30 games, a bottom-five percentile mark. Sanchez has held Cincinnati below this number in both prior meetings and owns a 61% season hit rate to the under (13-of-20, 6-of-10 most recent). Although four of his last five road starts went over, Harrelson believes the opponent’s weakness plus Sanchez’s overall trend outweigh the split. He also noted that Underdog is the only book still hanging the 5.5, giving bettors an edge before the market moves.

Eric Lindquist advised taking the outs prop on Cristopher Sanchez, targeting both 17.5 (for parlays up to –200) and 18.5 outs (anything +110 or better). Lindquist reminded listeners that Sanchez was cruising through Detroit in his previous start before Philadelphia shortened his night for workload management, artificially inflating his betting line in this spot. Prior to that hook Sanchez had cleared 18 outs in four of five turns and still owns an elite 61 percent ground-ball rate. Facing a free-swinging Reds lineup that ranks bottom-five in walk rate and will be without a fully stretched-out Hunter Greene on the other side, Lindquist expects Rob Thomson to let Sanchez work deep to spare the bullpen on the road.

B Wade recommended the under 2.5 earned runs for Ranger Suarez, calling the number a discount created by recency bias. Suarez has allowed three-plus runs in four of his last five outings, but Wade pointed out his previous dominance: before a July 11 skid he was among the league’s most efficient starters. Cincinnati has not solved him—Suarez surrendered only one run across 12 innings in two starts versus the Reds over the past two seasons (one this year, one last year). He has been especially stingy on the road, clearing 2.5 ER just once in 2025 away from Citizens Bank Park and averaging only 1.1 earned runs per road start. Wade expects regression toward those road splits and sees the current –119 price as strong value for bettors.

Kenny G offered a light lean to Philadelphia at –150, noting the matchup favors Ranger Suarez over Brady Singer. Suarez limited Cincinnati to one run in five innings on July 5, and while his last two appearances were rough, Kenny expects a bounce-back to "fine" form. Brady Singer is coming off a three-and-two-thirds, four-earned-run meltdown in Pittsburgh and has been erratic all season. Philadelphia’s bullpen “continues to be a bit of a problem,” but Kenny sees incremental improvement, whereas Cincinnati’s offense has cooled dramatically. Those factors give the Phillies a slight edge, though Kenny stressed this is only a lean without strong conviction.

Lindquist advised passing on Kyle Schwarber’s home-run prop, which opened between +160 and +175. Schwarber certainly demolished one Tuesday, but Lindquist reminds bettors that anything south of +225 is historically unprofitable for even the league’s elite sluggers. Schwarber’s HR/FB rate sits at 24 %, implying fair odds closer to +240 once ballpark and pitching matchup are baked in, so a +175 ticket leaves too little margin. With books shading prices after his recent walk-off blast, Lindquist suggests waiting for a more reasonable number or pivoting to alternate markets.

Mills Young played Kyle Schwarber (mispronounced as Karl Swarov) over 1.5 total bases and tossed in a home-run sprinkle. Schwarber is coming off a week with a .620 slug and draws a middling right-hander whose four-seam sits dead red at 92 mph — exactly the velocity band where Schwarber’s ISO jumps to .350. Young likes how the Phillies keep him in the two-hole, ensuring extra plate appearances to reach the bases prop, while the wind is forecasted out to right at Citizens Bank Park, juicing the long-ball bonus.

Bill Harrelson said he is fading Trea Turner on Monday, taking less than 1.5 total bases against Cincinnati. Turner has stayed under this line in 8 of his last 10 games and 13 of his last 20 (65%). In nine recent meetings with the Reds he has fallen short six times, most recently finishing with just one base a month ago. The matchup is tough: Andrew Abbott gets the ball for Cincinnati and Turner is only 1-for-8 lifetime (.143) against the left-handed ace. While Turner is still seeing roughly 4.5 plate appearances a night, his season-long under rate is 61%— up from 53% a year ago— and Harrelson noted that Caesars, DraftKings, Fliff, Novig and Sleeper are all pricing the under aggressively. With Turner mired in his coldest stretch of the season, Harrelson is comfortable betting the under on 1.5 total bases.