Welsh recommended a first‑five‑innings Philadelphia moneyline play, laying the modest juice on Zack Wheeler over Mets lefty David Peterson. He cited Wheeler’s 2.14 FIP and 31% K‑minus‑BB rate plus the Mets’ .289 team OBP versus righties. Because Peterson struggles to put away same‑side hitters, Welsh expects Turner and Bohm to scratch an early lead and prefers the five‑inning window to avoid the Phillies’ middle‑relief volatility.

Guy Boston advised taking Philadelphia on the first‑five money line (or run line for plus money) because Zack Wheeler versus David Peterson is a lopsided matchup. Wheeler owns elite underlying numbers—31 % K‑rate, 2.51 xERA—and usually only gives up damage deep in the seventh, which the F5 bet avoids. The Phillies mash left‑handed pitching (120 wRC+ vs LHP this season), while Peterson’s 55 % ground‑ball rate masks an unsustainable .241 BABIP that Guy says is "screaming regression." He also noted the Mets’ bullpen worked heavily the previous night, meaning Buck Showalter will leave Peterson out there even if trouble starts. With both relief units taxed, Guy wants to isolate the starting‑pitching edge and cash before the pens enter.

Brad Francis jumped on the Mets money line. His reasoning: Philadelphia has lost six straight contests at Citi Field and New York is ‘just on fire right now,’ winning five of their last six with a +18 run differential. Even though he originally leaned toward the Phillies with Sanchez on the mound, the Mets’ ability to manufacture late offense (league‑best .378 OBP in the 7th inning or later over the past week) convinced him to stay on the home side.

Seeing Zack Wheeler priced at just ‑115 surprised Purviance, but instead of backing the ace he prefers over 7.5 runs. He cited Wheeler’s 3.73 ERA through two starts and David Peterson’s 1.36 WHIP as indicators both clubs can score. Brian Howard agreed, stressing that a 7.5 total is low when both pitchers carry early‑season ERAs above 3.0 and the Mets bullpen has been shaky. Purviance framed the number as misaligned with the underlying base‑runners each pitcher is allowing and believes Citizens Bank Park’s hitter‑friendly environment could push the game toward 8‑plus runs.

Johnny Venezia pointed out Aaron Nola’s bizarre even‑year/odd‑year split and said 2024 is tracking like another rough campaign. Nola has opened with a 6.65 ERA, 1.66 WHIP and a career‑worst 9.2 % barrel rate. Although the Phillies’ offense should secure him wins, Venezia cautioned that the mounting hard contact could leave fantasy managers saddled with a 4.00‑plus ERA. He rated the panic level at 6/10—high enough to shop Nola while the name value still commands interest but not yet a total drop candidate.

Johnny Venezia put Trea Turner on his panic list, noting that the shortstop’s fantasy value craters when he is not getting on base. Turner is slashing .217/.308 with only one homer and four steals, and his hard‑hit rate has plunged to 30.2 % compared to his career norms. A 79 wRC+ in a stacked Phillies lineup underscores how rarely he is setting the table for run scoring. Venezia pegged his personal panic meter at 6.5 out of 10 and advised managers to treat Turner as a caution flag rather than a guaranteed buy‑low until the on‑base skills rebound.

Bevilacqua relayed that the Dimers model makes Mets +1.5 a worthwhile play at −156 on FanDuel for Wednesday’s 1:10 PM ET tilt with Philadelphia. The algorithm gives New York a 64.5% probability to stay within a run, producing a 3.5% expected value edge. Simulated distributions project a one‑run game 34% of the time, making the extra cushion particularly attractive in what the model grades as a coin‑flip matchup on the moneyline.

Kingpin Staff took Philadelphia on the moneyline, trusting Zack Wheeler to halt a two‑game slide. Wheeler’s 31% strikeout rate and 2.91 FIP dwarf David Peterson’s 18% K rate. The Mets have scored only nine total runs in Wheeler’s last four outings against them, while the Phillies’ offense owns a .355 wOBA versus lefties since 2023. The staff expects the bats to wake up after facing two straight right‑handers, projecting Philly for 4‑5 runs and Wheeler for a quality start.

Wilfinger’s second best bet targets the Phillies First‑5 innings moneyline at -125 behind Zack Wheeler. He pointed to Wheeler’s elite underlying metrics—2.32 xERA, .197 xBA, top‑8% strikeout rate—and his long history of success versus the division rival Mets. Expecting positive regression for the perennial Cy Young candidate, Wilfinger projects a shutdown start in spacious Citi Field. On the flip side, lefty David Peterson has been serviceable (8 ER in 22 IP) but faces a Philadelphia lineup that owns him: Bryce Harper, Nick Castellanos, and Alec Bohm all carry strong career splits, and even Edmundo Sosa has produced in a small sample. By isolating the first five frames, Wilfinger removes bullpen volatility and banks on Philly’s bats giving Wheeler an early cushion, accepting a push if tied.

Savio recommended Phillies ‑125 on the moneyline, citing a clear pitching edge. Zack Wheeler (2‑1, 3.73 ERA, 0.99 WHIP) has opened 2025 in vintage form and dominated his lone 2024 Citi Field start (7 IP, 3 H, 2 ER). He faces David Peterson, whose surface line looks solid (1‑1, 3.27 ERA), but whose 1.36 WHIP and track record raise red flags after a huge 2024 jump from 2.90 ERA following a 5.03 mark in 2023. Philadelphia hit .273 off Peterson last season and owns the more potent lineup. Savio expects Wheeler’s efficiency plus bullpen support to neutralize a Mets club riding a brief hot streak, delivering value on the short road price.

Kingpin Staff hit over 7.5 strikeouts for Zack Wheeler. He averages 10.9 K/9 this season, is stretched to 105 pitches, and faces a Mets lineup with a 24% K rate versus power righties. Wheeler’s slider generated a 42% whiff rate in his last start, a pitch New York hitters slug just .318 against. Projected to work 7 innings, the model gives him 9.1 median Ks, well above the posted number.

Todd Zola said Griffin Canning is a sneaky streaming option for Tuesday because the right‑hander has quietly logged a solid first month (21 strikeouts in 21 innings) despite some wildness (10 walks). Canning draws a Philadelphia lineup that owns one of the league’s worst road splits and will be trading Citizens Bank Park for a far less hitter‑friendly venue. With the Phillies’ bats muted away from home and Canning’s 2.7% rostership in ESPN leagues, Zola views him as a low‑cost add who can deliver strikeouts and a shot at a win.

Kenny G advised taking the Mets at +110 as short home underdogs. He pointed out New York’s 10‑1 record at Citi Field and the third‑best bullpen ERA in baseball, a big edge over Philadelphia’s relief corps that he called “horrendous.” Starter Griffin Canning has allowed just one earned run over his last 12 innings, fanning 13 while walking only three, so Kenny expects him to keep the game close until the pen takes over. The Mets offense has shown life during their five‑game winning streak (5‑7‑3‑5‑4 runs) with Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso both hot, while the Phillies are just 4‑6 on the road. Even though Cristopher Sanchez has opened the season well, Kenny trusts the deeper Mets staff and the home/road split trend that has only five clubs with winning road records league‑wide. He labeled New York a potential "Underdog of the Day."

Kyle Purviance plans to back the Phillies –1.5 (projected +135) with Cristopher Sanchez opposing Griffin Canning. Sanchez’s sinker/change combo has produced a 58% ground‑ball rate and a 2.34 FIP through four starts, while Canning sports a 6.08 ERA and has allowed a .394 wOBA to left‑handed bats—bad news against Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, and Bryson Stott. Purviance mentioned that Philadelphia’s offense starts slowly, so he prefers the full‑game run line over a first‑five bet but will sprinkle a Phillies double‑result ticket if books post +180 or better. He is ignoring Canning’s 8‑K outing versus St. Louis as an outlier, pointing instead to his 20% K‑rate and 44% hard‑hit percentage.

Martin called the Phillies cheap at –120 with Christopher Sanchez on the bump. The left‑hander is 2‑0 with a sub‑3.00 ERA and a sparkling 31‑to‑6 K/BB ratio in 24 innings, and he dominated the Mets last season. Conversely, Griffin Canning went 2‑1 to start 2025 but was shelled by Philadelphia in his lone 2024 meeting, walking five. Because NL East rivals see each other repeatedly, Martin trusts the historical splits and the current form, recommending Philly and listing Sanchez.

Cash Out Sports Picks backed the Phillies on the money line because everything lines up for them. Cristopher Sanchez has given Philadelphia four straight wins, owns a 2‑0 record, and just fanned 12 in his last start. Across 24.1 innings he has a 31/6 K/BB ratio and now draws a Mets lineup whose OPS falls from .716 vs righties to .660 vs lefties. On the other side Griffin Canning has walked 10 in 21 innings and sits near the bottom of the league in hard‑contact rate. Philadelphia’s offense has scored 5+ runs in five of the last seven and has yet to drop three games in a row all season. Add New York’s five‑game streak creating a potential let‑down spot and the host’s vulnerability to southpaws, and the tout sees clear value on the Phillies to bounce back.

Zerillo set the Phillies‑Mets total at 7.37 and recommends Under 8 at -115 or better. The handicap leans on two surging starters: Cristopher Sanchez’s three‑pitch mix all grades 115+ Stuff+ and he’s bumped his strikeout rate by 10.4%, while Griffin Canning’s increased slider usage and higher horizontal release have produced a career‑best 54% ground‑ball mark. With both clubs carrying respectable bullpens and Citi Field’s pitcher‑friendly backdrop, Zerillo expects runs to be scarce.

Peterson scooped up Mets +111 (projects +104) and Over 7.5 (projects 8.1). Cristopher Sanchez’s ERA nearly doubles on the road (2.39 at home vs 4.73 away, 0.7 HR/9 vs 1.4). Griffin Canning, fresh off a career‑worst 2024 (5.19 ERA, 6.8 K/9), looks reborn with a 3.43 ERA and 9.0 K/9 through four starts. With Sanchez in his weaker split and a warmer Citi Field forecast, Peterson expects enough scoring to clear the total while the resurgent Canning plus home bats give New York upset equity.

Although Cristopher Sanchez is flashing Cy Young form (1.4‑1.6 mph velocity bump, 116 Stuff+, 2.64 xERA, 56.9% GB rate), Zerillo still wants the Mets at +120 or longer because the model makes them +108. New York has the better offense and defense, posting a projected 116 wRC+ versus left‑handed pitching compared to Philly’s 112 versus righties. Griffin Canning’s revamped delivery and 54% ground‑ball rate give the Mets a fighting chance to match Sanchez inning for inning, and their bullpen results have been stronger to date. Wait for +120, then fire on the Mets.

Reichel laid −125 with Philadelphia, citing a sizable edge on the mound. Cristopher Sanchez fanned 12 in his previous start and owns a 2.89 FIP, whereas Griffin Canning is coming off a 104‑pitch outing that could sap his velo an extra day later. The Mets are an eye‑popping 9‑1 at Citi Field, but Reichel views that as baked into the price; he still makes Sanchez the superior pitcher and trusts the Phillies’ deeper order to scratch out enough against a possibly tired Canning before turning it over to a rested back‑end bullpen. Given the cheap number on the better arm, Reichel felt the value lies with Philadelphia despite the Mets’ perfect home aura.

Donnie Rightside backed the Mets as slight home favorites because Philadelphia’s bullpen is in shambles after blowing big leads Saturday (up 11‑4) and Sunday (up 4‑1 vs Miami). Although surface stats make it look like Aaron Nola (6.65 ERA) is worse than Tylor Megill (1.40 ERA), analytic numbers tell a different story: both pitchers sit around a 3.40 xFIP. That puts the game in late‑inning relievers’ hands, and DRS says New York’s rested pen is vastly more trustworthy than a Phillies unit that was "chewed up and spit out" over the weekend. With Francisco Lindor waking up, Juan Soto and Pete Alonso all swinging it well, Rightside prefers the Mets moneyline.

Kenny G also leaned toward OVER 8 runs in the Phillies‑Mets game. He is fading a Phillies bullpen that owns a 5.81 ERA and believes Aaron Nola’s early‑season struggles (6.65 ERA, 9 hits and 7 runs in his last start) continue against a Mets lineup headlined by Pete Alonso (.345 / 6 HR / 24 RBI). On the flip side, Philadelphia’s offense has cranked out 5, 11, 7 and 6 runs their last four and ranks 8th in runs. Although the Mets bullpen is elite, Kenny doubts Tylor Megill’s low‑1s ERA sustains versus a top‑10 on‑base unit. Given the combination of shaky starting pitching on both sides and a soft total of eight, he expects runs to show up before the bullpens fully settle in, making the over a solid play.

Kenny G advised backing the Mets at –120. New York just swept St. Louis and sits 9‑1 at Citi Field, powered by a bullpen sporting a 2.27 ERA (3rd in MLB). Starter Tylor Megill has a 1.40 ERA and, despite a blip at Minnesota, has yet to allow more than two earned runs in any other start. Philadelphia counters with Aaron Nola, whose 0‑4 record and 6.65 ERA include a seven‑run meltdown versus San Francisco and a 2‑run dud against Washington. Compounding matters, the Phillies bullpen is an eyesore at 5.81 ERA, second‑worst in baseball. The Philly offense is respectable—8th in runs, 3rd in OBP—but loses Brandon Marsh (hamstring) and still lacks slugging punch. Kenny trusts New York’s relief corps and home form to neutralize Pete Alonso’s supporting cast issues and sees the Mets extending their win streak.

Calling it one of his favorite bets of the card, Lonte Smith laid the modest –120 on the Mets behind Tylor McGill. New York is 9‑1 at Citi Field and leads MLB in runs allowed per game (2.7), ERA (2.45) and homers allowed (9). McGill has thrown 9 1/3 scoreless innings at home this year and has surrendered two earned runs or fewer in all four starts. Aaron Nola, by contrast, is 0‑4 with a 6.65 ERA, a 40% hard‑hit rate and five plus hits allowed in two of four outings. Smith added that the Phillies have yielded double‑digit runs three times in their last six, while the Mets offense woke up against St. Louis and now faces a staff that ranks 23rd in bullpen WAR. He is comfortable with the full game price and would consider the –1 run line at plus money.

Stephen highlighted Pete Alonso’s dominance of Aaron Nola and suggested betting both the total bases (+150) and hits‑runs‑RBIs (over 1.5 at –110) props. Alonso is 16‑for‑50 lifetime off Nola with eight extra‑base hits and five homers. At home this year he has cleared both lines in 6 of 10 games and has gone over in 5 of 9 contests versus right‑handed starters. Overall, the Polar Bear has at least one hit in 15 of 22 games. Nola’s form is shaky—Stephen called it “mightily struggling”—which further tilts the matchup in Alonso’s favor. Given the hitter’s history and Nola’s current woes, Stephen believes Alonso is primed to eclipse both prop lines again.

Cash Out Sports Picks advised taking the Over, noting Philly has plated 34 runs in its last five games and the Over has hit in four of those contests. Aaron Nola’s 6.65 ERA and a bottom‑two Phillies bullpen (5.81 ERA) set the stage for runs, while New York has surrendered 4+ runs in four of its last six. With both offenses clicking and shaky relief on the Philadelphia side, they project another high‑scoring affair surpassing the listed total.

Cash Out Sports Picks backed the Mets moneyline, pointing to an across‑the‑board advantage. Tyler Megill has allowed one run or fewer in three of four starts and carries a 1.40 ERA, plus a 2.51 ERA and .198/.266/.279 slash allowed across 86 PA versus current Phillies hitters. The Mets are 9‑1 at Citi Field, 13‑4 in their last 17 overall, and own MLB’s No. 3 bullpen ERA at 2.27. Philadelphia is winless in Aaron Nola’s four starts; Nola sports a 6.65 ERA and has yielded 11 runs in 16.2 April innings while the Phillies’ pen sits 29th with a 5.81 ERA. Add the Phillies’ 0‑for‑road‑series record and Cash Out Sports feels New York is the clear side.

Despite ribbing him for a recent no‑show, the host is going back to Nick Castellanos because he is 4‑for‑8 (.500) off Tylor McGill and has a hit in 11 of 14 games overall. He likes Castellanos for over 1.5 total bases and as a mid‑tier DFS outfield play in a favorable park.

It's The Final Round backed Pete Alonso props against Aaron Nola, noting the unique overlap where Alonso excels against the very pitches Nola struggles with. Versus Nola’s sinker (38 % usage) Alonso is 6‑for‑17 (.353) with a homer. The bigger edge is Nola’s surprisingly poor knuckle curve: hitters are 4‑for‑10 (.400) with a homer off it this year, while Alonso owns a .333 mark and three homers on curves over the last three seasons. Alonso is also mashing four‑seamers (.500, 5‑for‑10, 3 HR). Head‑to‑head he’s 6‑for‑21 with 3 bombs (.286). Alonso has hits in 13 of 17 games, nine of them multi‑hit, so the tout recommends betting him to record a hit, laddering total bases, or using him as a DFS cornerstone in hitter‑friendly Citizens Bank Park.

Projected score: Mets 4, Phillies 3. That edges New York as a ‑120 favorite while pointing to an Under on the 8‑run total. Tylor Megill has been lights‑out (1.40 ERA, 0.95 WHIP) and now faces a slumping Philly order that has scored three runs or fewer in four straight. Aaron Nola’s surface numbers are ugly (0‑4, 6.65 ERA) but his 3.41 xFIP hints at a rebound, making runs scarce on both sides. Citi Field has played as a bottom‑5 home‑run park in early April weather, reinforcing the Under call.

For player props, Shepardson took the "Higher" side on Juan Soto 1.5 Total Bases at Sleeper (2.24x) and Underdog (1.17x). Baseball Savant shows Soto with a .579 SLG (.676 xSLG) and three home runs in 51 career plate appearances against Aaron Nola. Given Nola’s current 6.65 ERA and elevated hard‑contact profile, Shepardson expects Soto to tally at least two bases tonight.

Shepardson played the "Higher" on Pete Alonso 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (1.80x at Sleeper, same line at Underdog). Alonso has torched Aaron Nola for six homers, three doubles and a .731 slugging percentage in 57 career PA (17 hits overall). He’s also scorching in 2025 with 27 hits, 24 RBIs and a .346/.453 slash across just 95 plate appearances. That mix of current form and dominant BvP makes the over a strong value.

Shepardson recommended building Mets stacks around Juan Soto because Aaron Nola owns a bloated 6.65 ERA, 1.66 WHIP and 1.66 HR/9 through four starts, with near‑neutral platoon splits (.322 wOBA to LHB, .313 to RHB) dating back to 2024. Soto himself is rolling with a .385 OBP, .179 ISO and 133 wRC+ in 2025, and he’s 10‑for‑38 with three doubles and three homers off Nola lifetime. With the Mets favored at -120 in an 8‑run total at Citi Field, Soto profiles as a cornerstone spend‑up for DFS lineups.

Carty’s model recommends betting UNDER 5.5 strikeouts for Aaron Nola at +110. Projection shows only a 47% chance Nola reaches six punch‑outs (53% to stay under), yielding an $11.34 expected value. The call is driven by Nola’s 92.3 mph average fastball—24th percentile among starters over the past two seasons—and a Mets lineup that ranks league‑average in K% but profiles well versus below‑average velocity.

Sean Zerillo played Under 8 runs (to -110) in Phillies‑Mets. Despite Aaron Nola’s ugly 0‑4, 6.65 ERA start, Zerillo pointed to steadier indicators (4.01 xERA, 3.44 xFIP, 104 Stuff+) and expects regression toward his career norms. Mets hitters have an .833 OPS in 312 PAs off Nola, but Tylor Megill counters with a revamped arsenal—sinkers and a reshaped slider now 45% of his mix (both >104 Stuff+)—and has held Philadelphia to a .545 OPS over 94 PAs. Both bullpens grade top‑7 in K‑BB% and Stuff+ (Phillies rank first at 108 Stuff+, 3.07 botERA). Game‑time temps hover 54° with a real‑feel 45°, muting a mild 10 mph wind to left. Zerillo’s model spits out 7.43 runs, creating enough cushion to back the under.