Lonte Smith is grabbing Miami on the first-five moneyline, projecting a 1-0 or 2-1 Marlins lead before the pens get involved. Edward Cabrera has allowed two or fewer earned in four straight and sports a 2.60 ERA at home, flashing swing-and-miss stuff with 5 K’s in his first seven batters last time out before leaving with a minor ankle tweak. Cabrera’s chief issue—efficiency—actually works for the wager because it keeps the shaky Miami bullpen off the field. Cristopher Sanchez is steady (two runs or fewer in six of seven road starts), so Smith also leans first-five under, but Miami’s improved at-bat quality (they just took a game off Philadelphia) gives him confidence in a small underdog price. He refuses to touch the full-game because Philly’s bullpen is far superior.

Kenny G labeled the Phillies moneyline at –180 his potential 'lock of the day.' He trusts Christopher Sanchez, who owns a 2.89 ERA in June and has completed at least six innings in three of his last four starts, to stifle a Marlins offense that ranks 23rd in runs and 19th in slugging for the season and has produced only two, eight, two, three, four and 11 runs in its past six games. Miami’s 4.53 bullpen ERA sits neck-and-neck with Philadelphia’s relief mark, but Kenny noted the Phillies pen grades noticeably better in underlying metrics and has held opponents to a .218 average over the last two weeks. He expects limited resistance from Edward Cabrera—solid but not dominant in his last three turns—and highlighted that Miami is just 15-21 at home while Philadelphia is 19-17 on the road and 21-14-1 to the under away, suggesting a low-scoring Phillies win. If you want a secondary angle, Kenny said the full-game Over 7.5 is playable because both bullpens can implode late, but he made it clear the primary wager is Phillies ML at anything –190 or better.

Lindquist wants to buy back on Kyle Schwarber’s home-run prop at roughly +320 in Miami after Wednesday’s golden-sombrero disaster. Edward Cabrera brings a live arm (25% K-rate) but combines it with a 10% walk rate and 44.3% hard-hit percentage, giving Schwarber plenty of chances to see mistake fastballs. The Marlins’ bullpen piles on free passes as well, ranking bottom-five in BB% since June 1. Although loanDepot Park suppresses power, Schwarber’s 17.6° launch angle and 93 mph average exit velocity travel anywhere, and Lindquist believes the market over-adjusted to the stadium factor after Tuesday’s flop.

Drew Martin is also betting Edward Cabrera’s strikeout prop to the over despite backing the Phillies to win. Cabrera has recorded 25 Ks over his last four starts and regularly touches the upper-90s. Martin noted that the Phillies can be overly aggressive, making six or more strikeouts in roughly five innings a realistic projection. He will monitor the posted number but expects value on the over.

For the Phillies-Marlins matchup, Drew Martin recommends Philadelphia −1.5 with Cristopher Sanchez on the mound. Sanchez has surrendered two or fewer earned runs in four straight outings and threw a nine-inning, three-hit shutout the last time he faced Miami. Martin expects the Phillies’ potent lineup to pressure Edward Cabrera early and force a shaky Marlins bullpen into extended duty. Given Philadelphia’s offensive ceiling, Martin feels comfortable laying the run line price instead of the heavy money line.

With the Marlins still undecided on a starter (Freddy Tarnok likely), Bamford locked in Miami’s team total under. Ranger Suarez brings a 2.32 ERA and 1.07 WHIP into the matchup and has been ‘really, really good’ at suppressing contact. Tarnok has tossed only one MLB inning, so Malcom eliminated the side market but trusts Suarez to keep the Marlins quiet in spacious LoanDepot. No line was posted yet, but he plans to hit the Marlins TT Under once numbers open.

B Wade is on Brandon Marsh over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs against Miami rookie Adam Mazur, who owns a career 7.49 ERA and 1.80 WHIP in the majors and is making his 2025 debut. Marsh has surged after a brutal April, clearing this number in seven of his last eight outings, yet books still list him at 1.5 while most Phillies sit at 2.5. Marsh carries a .266 average off right-handed pitching, and Wade expects Philadelphia’s lineup to punish the inexperienced Mazur, giving Marsh multiple paths to the over.

B Wade is on Brandon Marsh over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs against Miami rookie Adam Mazur, who owns a career 7.49 ERA and 1.80 WHIP in the majors and is making his 2025 debut. Marsh has surged after a brutal April, clearing this number in seven of his last eight outings, yet books still list him at 1.5 while most Phillies sit at 2.5. Marsh carries a .266 average off right-handed pitching, and Wade expects Philadelphia’s lineup to punish the inexperienced Mazur, giving Marsh multiple paths to the over.

B Wade said to smash the under 2.5 earned-runs line on Ranger Suarez for Wednesday’s start in Miami. Suarez began 2025 on a rehab delay and looked gassed in his first two outings, but he has allowed only three earned runs total across his last five starts (0.60 ERA, .185 BAA). Wade noted the left-hander is now working deeper into games and currently looks like the Phillies’ best arm. The Marlins still sit bottom-five in team wOBA despite a minor uptick this past week. For this prop to lose, Suarez would have to give up as many runs in one night as he has in the last month combined, a scenario Wade calls highly unlikely.

Just A Bet Outside backed the Phillies to win behind Ranger Suarez, noting his absurd 0.87 ERA and .192 opponent average across 20.2 road innings. Philadelphia is 5-3 in his starts, and two losses came when the offense scored two runs or fewer. The matchup is Adam Mazur, whom the tout called a fill-in arm after posting a 7.50 ERA, 5.71 xFIP, 14% K-rate, and 13.3% walk rate last season. Philly owns the stronger lineup (11th in wRC+ vs RHP the last three weeks) and a fresher bullpen, while Miami used key relievers Tuesday. He expects a comfortable victory and likes combining the ML with Detroit in a plus-money parlay or laying the run line separately.

It’s The Final Round pointed to Trea Turner’s run line (-115 on Outlier for 1+ run) as a viable bet versus Adam Mazur. Turner mirrors Bohm’s heater with a .393 clip, 11 hits, two bombs and seven runs over the past week. With Philadelphia’s offense rolling and Mazur’s middling minor-league numbers (4.50 ERA in AAA) plus last year’s big-league struggles, Turner’s top-of-order slot gives him multiple plate appearances against a hittable fastball/slider mix. The tout considers any Turner hit or total-bases prop a secondary option but prefers the run market given his recent walk rate and RBI bats behind him.

It’s The Final Round advised backing Alec Bohm for a single (listed ‑170 on Outlier) or alternative hit markets against Adam Mazur. Bohm is scorching at .393 over the last seven days with 11 hits, two homers and 11 RBI. The analyst emphasized that Mazur’s control-first profile forces him into the zone, a recipe for Bohm’s high-contact approach. Given Mazur’s .267 AVG allowed to right-handed hitters in his brief 2023 stint and Bohm’s present form, the tout expects another knock and possible multi-RBI upside.

It’s The Final Round advised backing Alec Bohm for a single (listed ‑170 on Outlier) or alternative hit markets against Adam Mazur. Bohm is scorching at .393 over the last seven days with 11 hits, two homers and 11 RBI. The analyst emphasized that Mazur’s control-first profile forces him into the zone, a recipe for Bohm’s high-contact approach. Given Mazur’s .267 AVG allowed to right-handed hitters in his brief 2023 stint and Bohm’s present form, the tout expects another knock and possible multi-RBI upside.

It’s The Final Round said Max Kepler is a prime prop target against Miami rookie Adam Mazur. Mazur’s four-seam sits 95-98 with almost no movement and he was torched in eight MLB starts last year (7.50 ERA, 1.81 WHIP, .329 AVG to lefties, .267 to righties). Kepler enters with a seven-game hit streak, eight total hits, three homers, five RBI and a .333 average over the past week. Outlier shows his run prop at +120 and the tout expects at least one knock, noting that any total-bases or hits+runs+RBI ladder can be built off the base-hit expectation.

Lindquist recommended the Phillies on the run line because he views Adam Mazur versus Ranger Suarez as the biggest starting-pitching mismatch on the board. Philadelphia’s lineup is humming with Trea Turner locked in and Nick Castellanos batting cleanup after a brief disciplinary dust-up. Against a thin Miami bullpen, Lindquist expects the Phillies’ offense to give Suarez plenty of cushion and sees -1.5 as the best way to attack the game.

After dropping Tuesday’s game, Cash Out Sports Picks expects the Phillies to right the ship and laid out a money-line bet behind Ranger Suarez. Suarez sports a 2.32 ERA, a 5-1 record, and faces a Marlins club that ranks near the bottom of MLB vs left-handed pitching. Even if Kyle Schwarber or Trea Turner sit, the tout trusts Philly’s depth to supply enough offense while Suarez neutralizes Miami.

Eric Lindquist said Kyle Schwarber’s 2-plus total bases prop is worth a look against Sandy Alcantara. Lindquist pointed out Alcantara’s 345 xwOBA and modest 17.7 % strikeout rate, noting the right-hander is far more hittable than past seasons and is also walking hitters at an elevated clip. Schwarber already draws walks at a high rate but still profiles for loud contact when Alcantara does challenge him. Even in the spacious loanDepot Park, Lindquist likes Schwarber’s chances to clear two bases if books hang the usual plus-money number because any barreled ball will play up against a pitcher allowing that much hard contact.

Just A Bet Outside highlighted Philadelphia’s right-handed trio as prime DFS targets against Sandy Alcantara. Trea Turner (13-for-30; .433), J.T. Realmuto (11-for-36; .306) and Alec Bohm (10-for-27; .370) all carry long-term success versus the Marlins ace and are swinging hot bats. Alcantara’s swinging-strike rate has dipped to 10.4% this season and he is allowing a .326 average the third time through the order, creating stack appeal in tournaments. The tout suggested building Phillies mini-stacks around Turner’s speed/power combo for tournaments, expecting multiple baserunners and opportunities for crooked numbers.

Just A Bet Outside said the Phillies are worth a play at -130 on FanDuel, arguing the number should be closer to -150. He trusts Philadelphia’s league-best 27–12 road record and their top-five wRC+ against right-handed pitching to back rookie Mick Abel, while fading Sandy Alcantara, who has been excellent in two straight outings but those came against weak line-ups. With Miami’s offense ranking 28th in OPS and posting just 3.7 runs per game at home, he expects minimal run support for Alcantara. The host is laying a half-unit on the Phillies moneyline and advised bettors to move quickly before the books correct the price.

Dylan Rockford backed the Phillies at -124, calling the price 'very cheap' given how the two clubs are trending. He pointed out that Philadelphia has started to swing the bats again, hanging 11 runs on Sunday and now sitting right around .500 away from Citizens Bank Park. Rockford is not buying Sandy Alcantara’s recent two-start rebound because those outings came against the Rockies and Pirates, two of the league’s weakest lineups. He reminded listeners that Alcantara was 'smoked' by the Phillies earlier this season. On the other side, rookie Mick Abel has only one road start, but it was a quality outing in Toronto, a far tougher assignment than Miami. With Philadelphia’s lineup hot, Abel’s road poise, and a Marlins offense that still ranks bottom-five in OPS, Rockford felt the Phillies moneyline was the play.

Kenny G said the Phillies are a strong play at -130 on the road in Miami. He likes rookie Mick Abel’s overall body of work (2.35 ERA through three starts, dominant outings versus Toronto and Pittsburgh) and expects a rebound after Abel’s homer-marred effort against the Cubs. Conversely, Sandy Alcantara owns a 7.14 ERA, was ‘absolutely obliterated’ by these same Phillies in April, and has only looked competent against weak lineups (Pirates, Rockies). Kenny highlighted that both bullpens are shaky, but Miami’s 4.63 ERA is even worse than Philadelphia’s 4.50. Offensively the Phillies rank 10th in runs, 5th in OBP and have scored 11, 3, 8 and 7 runs in their last four, while the Marlins remain 23rd in runs and have managed more than four runs just once in their last seven. With the hotter lineup, better starter, and minimal juice, Kenny believes the Phillies moneyline is ‘way too cheap’ and calls it an ‘excellent value play’.

Jay Yang advised betting the over 8.5 runs in Monday’s Phillies-Marlins game. He outlined four pillars behind the play: 1) Pitching volatility – rookie Mick Abel flashed nine strikeouts over six scoreless frames in his debut but is still finding his footing, while 2022 Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara is coming off Tommy John surgery and has surrendered 4+ earned runs in several starts this season. 2) Recent trend – Philadelphia totals have gone over in three of their last five, signaling an offense in rhythm. 3) Bullpen pressure – if Abel exits early or Alcantara gets tagged, both middling relief corps must cover extra innings, opening the door for late scoring. 4) Lineup firepower – the Phillies’ stacked order can string together multi-run frames, and Miami’s bats have shown life of late, giving the game a better chance to erupt than the market implies. Factoring all those edges together, Yang expects the combined lineups to push the score past 8.5 more often than not.

B Wade bet Sandy Alcantara UNDER 17.5 outs, pointing out the right-hander has completed six innings in only three of 13 starts this season—and those came against Cincinnati, Colorado, and Pittsburgh, three sub-par offenses. In Alcantara’s most recent turn versus Philadelphia he lasted just two frames (six outs). While some bettors view his back-to-back quality lines against the Rockies and Pirates as a turnaround, Wade attributes them to weak competition. With the Phillies historically roughing him up and still eager to break out offensively, Wade expects Miami to pull Alcantara before he reaches the 18-out mark again.

B Wade wagered on Mick Abel OVER 15.5 outs (needs 16). The rookie logged 18 outs in his debut shutout of Pittsburgh, 16 outs in his second start, and was lifted after four innings versus Chicago only when the fourth got messy. Overall, he has allowed just four earned runs across three MLB starts. Wade notes Miami sits in the bottom quartile for runs and rarely drives starters out early. He expects Philadelphia’s staff to extend Abel past the fifth now that he has three outings under his belt—Abel threw only 84 pitches in the six-inning start, hinting at leash room. Against this light-hitting lineup, six frames are well within reach.

B Wade played J.T. Realmuto OVER 0.5 singles instead of the hits + runs + RBIs combo because the catcher has two more singles than HRR games in his last 20. Realmuto faces Sandy Alcantara, whose ERA is hovering around 7.00 and who surrendered six runs in just two innings to Philly earlier this year. Alcantara’s only respectable outings came versus Colorado and Pittsburgh, the league’s two lowest-scoring offenses. Realmuto is batting .306 (11-for-36) with two homers against Alcantara lifetime and has singled in eight consecutive games versus Miami dating back to last May. Wade believes the former Marlin “eats” again in this matchup.