BetMGM Betting recommended backing the Dodgers on the moneyline despite the steep -325 price. Their in-house model gives Los Angeles a 69.6% win probability and several data points back that up. Tyler Glasnow owns a .136 opponents’ average the first time through the order and a 59% two-strike K-rate, both tops among qualified starters since 2023. Meanwhile Pittsburgh’s lineup is slugging just .378 dating back to last year and strikes out 26% of the time against left-handers and 34% in lefty-lefty situations, indicating difficulty adjusting when Dave Roberts turns the game over to his bullpen’s southpaws. The Pirates are 0-12 when allowing five or more runs this season and 7-51 when giving up 10+ hits since 2024, while the Dodgers are 182-33 when holding opponents to four or fewer runs over that same span. LA has also cashed the moneyline in 11 of its last 14 at Dodger Stadium (+4.7 units). Put it together and BetMGM Betting sees plenty of justification for swallowing the chalk.

BetMGM Betting advised playing Mookie Betts Under 0.5 Total Bases (+190). Betts has failed to record a base in 13 of his last 15 games, a trend that has returned +10.5 units (47% ROI). Bailey Falter’s pitch mix—heavy first-pitch inside and soft-spinning curveballs—has actually succeeded at generating weak contact early in counts. With Betts showing a 27-point dip in hard-hit rate during this skid, the tout views the plus-money under as the sharper side until the former MVP snaps out of his funk.

BetMGM Betting pointed to the Over 0.5 Home Runs for Oneil Cruz at +400. Cruz has cleared this number in six of his last nine games, generating +21.85 units and a 243% ROI for anyone tailing the trend. Although facing Tyler Glasnow is a difficult assignment, Dodger Stadium’s afternoon conditions generally boost left-handed power and Cruz’s 118-mph max-exit velocity ranks in the top 1% of MLB. Bettors looking for a high-payout dart can ride the recent heater at four-to-one odds.

BetMGM Betting highlighted the Over 6.5 strikeouts (-150) for Tyler Glasnow. Since the start of 2023 right-handers are hitting just .167 against him and his 59% strikeout rate when he gets to two strikes is best in baseball. Opponents have produced only a .188 OBP the first time through the order, giving Glasnow extra chances to work deep. Pittsburgh profiles as a friendly matchup: its hitters own MLB’s lowest batting average on pitches outside the zone (.101) and have struck out in-zone 51% of the time, fourth highest in the league. The Pirates also fan 26% of the time against lefties and have struggled similarly versus premium velocity. Given Glasnow’s pitch efficiency, BetMGM Betting expects seven or more punch-outs.

Peterson recommended taking the Pirates +1.5 runs at +135 or better against the Dodgers and leaning Under 8.5. He noted Los Angeles has already won four games by exactly one run this season—uncharacteristic for a club that usually buries opponents on the run line—and is currently in a two-week offensive lull despite Shohei Ohtani and Mookie Betts posting elite OBPs. Tyler Glasnow’s 5.3 BB/9 gives Pittsburgh a chance to manufacture runs, while Bailey Falter has allowed three earned runs or fewer in three straight starts and rarely beats himself with walks. The Pirates’ lineup has shown incremental improvement with Oneil Cruz (6 HR) and Bryson Reynolds heating up, and David Bednar’s return stabilizes a bullpen that ranks mid-pack in ERA. With the Dodgers’ relief corps still without several injured arms, Peterson believes a tight, low-scoring game is the most likely script and is happy to pocket the insurance run.

Cash Out Sports Picks recommended Dodgers -1.5, highlighting Bailey Falter’s ugly 13 ER in his last 20 IP and the current LA roster’s gaudy .974 lifetime OPS (four HR) against him. Tyler Glasnow, meanwhile, has yielded two runs or fewer in three of four starts; Pirates hitters are just .173 with little hard contact against the big righty historically. Pittsburgh is reeling, the Dodgers just snapped a mini-skid, and their perceived issue versus lefties seems solved. The tout sees Glasnow turning the screws for six strong while LA’s stacked order turns Falter’s fly-ball profile into crooked numbers.

The tout paired LA with the UNDER, citing Pittsburgh’s road offense ranking 24th in MLB at just 3.0 runs per game and a 3-10-1 road under record. Glasnow’s swing-and-miss stuff should keep the Bucs below two runs, while the Dodgers have been inconsistent at Chavez Ravine (6-7 to the over) and could coast once ahead. With cooler nighttime temps and both bullpens rested, Cash Out Sports Picks projected a 5-1 or 4-2 type final, safely below the posted total.

Kingpin Staff backed the Twins moneyline (-160) over the visiting Dodgers. Joe Ryan sports a 2.84 ERA and 0.96 WHIP, and faces Dodgers prospect Jose Soriano, who has lasted just 4.1 IP on average with a 12% walk rate. Despite the star power of Betts and Freeman, Los Angeles ranks only 18th in OPS versus right-handers in April. Minnesota’s balanced order (Buxton, Correa, Julien) owns the 8th-best hard-contact rate and should capitalize on Soriano’s control lapses, while Target Field’s cool temps suppress the Dodgers’ power upside.

Kingpin Staff recommended Tyler Glasnow over 6.5 strikeouts against Pittsburgh. Glasnow’s fastball/slider combo has produced a 36% K-rate and 15.2% swinging-strike rate through four starts. The Pirates strike out 25.9% of the time vs right-handed pitching and rank 28th in contact percentage. With Los Angeles favored by ‑310, Kingpin projects Glasnow to work at least six innings, giving him 95-plus pitch upside and a strong path to 7+ punch-outs.

Peterson is comfortable up to –148 on the Dodgers run line and likes the over as long as books deal 8.0. The handicap starts with Mitch Keller’s drastic home/road splits—career 5.14 ERA and 1.4 HR/9 away from PNC—paired with diminished whiff rates (just 8 K/9 this year). Roki Sasaki finally looks settled, allowing three runs over his last 11 innings after early command meltdowns, but Peterson still projects L.A.’s bullpen (Evan Phillips, Tanner Scott, Kirby Yates) to cover 8–9 outs because the rookie’s pitch count stays modest. That is fine against a Pittsburgh lineup that has only one player (Oneil Cruz) with more than three homers; Swaggerty, Suwinski, and Henry Davis are all under the Mendoza line. Offensively the Dodgers are overdue for positive regression—Shohei Ohtani and Mookie Betts both own OBPs north of .360 yet have a combined 12 homers, something Peterson expects to climb versus Keller’s flat four-seam. He set the total at 8.6 thanks to Dodger bats plus a shaky Pirates bullpen where Caleb Ferguson and Colin Holderman are the only trustworthy arms behind a struggling David Bednar. In short: fading Keller’s road woes, leaning on L.A.’s depth, and expecting enough late runs from both pens makes Dodgers –1.5 and over 8 a correlated parlay in Peterson’s numbers.

Despite both clubs ranking poorly in batting average, the tout played OVER the total because of volatile pitching and tired bullpens. Sasaki’s walk rate keeps extra runners on base, and Keller has given up 15 hits in his last three starts even while limiting damage. The under has already cashed 24 times between these teams this year, creating what he believes is a discount on the number. With each lineup overdue for positive regression and Dodger Stadium’s mild spring temps favoring hitters, he projects the total sneaking past the posted line late.

It's The Final Round likes Freddie Freeman’s chances versus Mitch Keller, noting an 8-for-15 lifetime record (.533, 1 HR) against the Pirates right-hander. Keller’s four-seam (39 % usage) has yielded a .324 average, while his slider (.357) and changeup (.333) are equally vulnerable. Freeman owns a .250 mark vs four-seamers this season but a .333 clip vs both the slider and change, plus a .500 (1-for-2) vs Keller’s occasional sweeper. The only hesitation: Freeman has just five hits across his last eight games (nine if he goes hitless in the early Saturday game), so the tout said he will scale exposure if the mini-slump continues. Still, if Freeman registers a knock earlier in the day, over 1.5 total bases is firmly in play.

Cash Out Sports Picks took a swing on Pittsburgh at juicy plus money. The Dodgers have lost three straight and rookie phenom Roki Sasaki has battled command (16 walks to 16 Ks). Meanwhile, Mitch Keller has settled in, allowing only five runs across his last 18.1 frames. Pittsburgh has quietly pieced together wins against quality opponents, and with LA’s offense scuffling in the mid-table for runs scored, the tout sees legitimate upset potential worth more than a 2-to-1 payoff.

He also grabbed OVER 8 (model 8.6). Keller’s lack of swing-and-miss stuff and Sasaki’s wildness (7.2 BB/9) open doors for crooked numbers on both sides, and the late-game bullpens are no sure thing. Peterson believes nine or more runs cashes more often than not.

Peterson laid -1.5 -120 because Mitch Keller’s strikeout rate has cratered to 6.4 K/9, a bad match for a Dodgers lineup averaging 4.9 runs at home. Rookie Roki Sasaki owns a passable 3.20 ERA but an ugly 5.15 FIP thanks to matching walk and strikeout rates (7.2 per nine), so Pittsburgh’s starter is unlikely to keep pace. Peterson priced the run line at -148.

Todd Zola advised sitting — and potentially temporarily dropping — Mitch Keller for his road turn against the Dodgers. Los Angeles owns MLB’s top ISO (.197) and the second-highest walk rate, a brutal combination for Keller’s sometimes shaky command. Zola noted Keller’s next scheduled start (home vs Padres) is more palatable, so managers in shallow leagues can cut him now, stream the roster spot, and reclaim him next week when FAB runs.

Scott Reichel is laying the -1.5 run line at -115 because, in his words, “this is the Padres handicap all over again.” Los Angeles is 10-2 at Chavez Ravine with a +45 run differential, while Pittsburgh is 4-9 on the highway and just blew a late lead in Anaheim. Mitch Keller owns a 4.18 ERA and a .292 opponents’ average his second time through the lineup, and the Bucs have only one dangerous bat (Oneil Cruz) in a bottom-five wRC+ offense. Rookie Roki Sasaki has trimmed his ERA to 3.48 after the Dodgers simplified his pitch mix, and Reichel expects the strikeout-prone Pirates to make him look even better. He acknowledges the Dodgers’ rotation is dinged up—Glasnow left his last start, Snell is on the IL, Kershaw rehabbing—but trusts their top-three offense to give Sasaki breathing room. Reichel projects a 6-2 final and thinks any RL number at -120 or better is value over a prohibitive moneyline.

Lonte Smith called Saturday a full-blown Dodgers smash spot and recommended combining Roki Sasaki’s strikeout prop over (listed 5.5) with the L.A. moneyline to create an even-money ticket. Sasaki’s slider has generated a 34 % whiff rate over his last two outings, and Pittsburgh strikes out 25.9 % of the time against right-handers. At home, the Dodgers slug .483 and average 5.7 runs; the Pirates manage just 3.1 runs per road game. Smith expects Sasaki to log 6–7 punch-outs in five or six clean innings while the offense takes advantage of Keller’s 40 % hard-hit rate. He is willing to play the parlay to -105 and still sees value, noting that Sasaki’s confidence has grown each start since the club shortened his pitch count and leaned on his best two offerings.

Mike Maher said fantasy managers could "copy-paste" Wormeli’s Canning logic for Andrew Heaney, who also lines up for two starts next week and is available in most leagues. Heaney’s 28% career strikeout rate always provides upside, and Maher notes that his swinging-strike rate remains north of 12% even with a lackluster surface ERA so far. If you need volume, Heaney should give you double-digit strikeouts and a decent shot at a win in leagues that count them, making him a perfectly acceptable one-week rental where ratios are less critical.

Halterman wants fantasy managers to scoop up Tony Gonsolin before his season debut later this week. With Blake Snell shut down, Gonsolin should lock down the back-end rotation spot—always lucrative for wins in L.A. The right-hander owns a career 2.51 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, and 25 % K-rate prior to his 2023 Tommy John campaign. He reached five innings in his final rehab start, so quality-start volume is plausible immediately. While 2023’s 4.98 ERA shows risk, Halterman is willing to ride the Dodgers carousel: roster the current fifth starter, bank ratio help and wins, then churn when the next arm surfaces.

Lindquist pounded the first-five under 3.5 at ‑110 between Paul Skenes and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, calling it one of the rare half-unit gems all season. Skenes owns a microscopic .237 xwOBA while Yamamoto sits at .244, numbers Lindquist believes already place them among the five best starters in baseball. Offensively Pittsburgh brings little firepower – they just optioned Jack Suwinski – and although the Dodgers’ lefty stack is scary, Lindquist expects Skenes to limit damage in his platoon splits. With two elite strikeout-plus-command profiles on the bump and no pressure from mediocre bullpens in the early frames, he views anything north of 3.0 as a gift.

Brian Howard wants a piece of the FIRST FIVE UNDER when Paul Skenes squares off with Yoshinobu Yamamoto on Friday. The full-game total opened at a stingy 7, so Howard expects the F5 number to surface at 3.5 (possibly juiced) or 4 flat. He argued the early innings favor a pitchers’ duel: • The Dodgers strike out a ton for a contending lineup, giving Skenes upside even though his triple-digit heater has appeared less frequently (only 17 pitches at 100+ mph so far). • Pittsburgh’s offense is bottom-five in wRC+, meaning Yamamoto can dominate with his splitter even if Skenes is merely solid. • Both starters routinely work into the sixth, allowing bettors to eliminate the volatile Pirate and Dodger middle relievers that exploded in their last series. Howard said he will fire on any 3.5 at –120 or better and might parlay it with his previously discussed Rockies–Reds F5 under to sweeten the payout.

Just A Bet Outside hammered Yoshinobu Yamamoto over 6.5 strikeouts at -138, calling the number a full K too low. Yamamoto enters with a microscopic 0.93 ERA, 35.2% strikeout rate, and 0.86 WHIP, fresh off three straight scoreless outings (19 IP, 24 Ks) against the Cubs, Phillies, and Rangers. He has cleared 6.5 in three of five MLB starts, with the two misses coming in his Japan opener and a rare clunker versus a low-K Philadelphia lineup. The Pirates strike out at the 11th-highest clip versus righties, and recent examples like Ortiz (8 Ks) and Irvin (6 Ks) show their vulnerability. Yamamoto’s 20 whiffs last game plus consistent 6–7 inning workloads give him ample volume; the tout said the market should be dealing 7.5 at roughly the same juice.

Data Skrive’s model spit out a 4-2 final score and labeled Under 7 runs the preferred total bet. Key reasoning: Pittsburgh starters have posted a 3.00 ERA over the last 10 contests, while the Dodgers’ offense has averaged 4.4 runs in the same stretch and stayed under in six of their past 10. Conversely, L.A.’s pitching has been volatile (5.42 ERA last 10), but the 10.4 K/9 suggests run prevention upside against a Pirates lineup that has just a .250 team average and ranks bottom-third in slugging. With both clubs combining for only 22 total homers in the last 10 games and Dodger Stadium’s marine layer often suppressing offense in night games, the projection expects limited scoring and recommends taking the Under.

Data Skrive projected a 4-2 Dodgers victory and advised laying the juice on Los Angeles even at a pricey -204 moneyline (or the -1.5 run line at +111). The model gave the Dodgers a 61% win probability and pointed to several supporting trends: Los Angeles is 15-7 overall as a favorite this season and 7-1 when books hang them at -204 or shorter. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, has won only 5 of 15 games as an underdog (33%) and is facing its longest implied odds of the year at +169. The article also noted the Dodgers’ strong strikeout rate the past 10 games (10.4 K/9) against a Pirates lineup striking out seven times a game, suggesting L.A.’s pitching can control the matchup. Those factors combine to make L.A. the recommended side for moneyline or run-line bettors.

Jay Croucher explained why his projection simultaneously shows value on Pittsburgh +1.5 runs at -115. Paul Skenes has worked at least six innings in all four MLB starts and has held opponents to three earned runs or fewer in three of them while fanning 23 batters in 26 innings. With the game total sitting at 7.0 and the Under 4-1 in the Pirates’ last five against National League foes, Croucher expects runs to be at a premium. Los Angeles dropped two straight one-run games to the Cubs this week, reinforcing the likelihood of another close finish. His model spits out a 59% probability that Pittsburgh keeps the margin to one run or wins outright, giving bettors roughly a 6-point edge over the implied probability on the +1.5 run line.

Although both starters own sub-3.00 ERAs, Jay Croucher’s projection makes Over 7.0 the highest-EV total play. He noted that the Dodgers’ offense is heating up—Teoscar Hernandez is slashing .385 with a homer and 5 RBI over his last three games—and that Oneil Cruz just went 6-for-16 (.375) in Anaheim as Pittsburgh’s lineup finally shows signs of life. Croucher also pointed out that Skenes averaged 97.8 mph on his heater in his last start but has surrendered seven barrels in 26 innings, signaling possible HR regression. Yamamoto will be on regular four-day rest after a 101-pitch outing, so L.A. could need 9-12 outs from a bullpen that was used in back-to-back nail-biters at Wrigley. Factoring park-adjusted run environments and neutral weather, his model projects 7.6 runs—enough cushion to clear the listed total.

Jay Croucher said the Dodgers’ moneyline is still playable at -215 because every market factor favors Los Angeles. Rookie import Yoshinobu Yamamoto owns a microscopic 0.93 ERA and just blanked Texas for 7 innings with 10 strikeouts and zero walks. The club has won five straight home games against Pittsburgh and sits 4-1 on the run line this season when they have a rest advantage at Dodger Stadium. Even though Paul Skenes has flashed a 2.87 ERA, the Pittsburgh offense has scored three runs or fewer in three of his four starts and now flies cross-country after a 4-3 loss to the Angels. Croucher pointed to Teoscar Hernandez’s hot bat (5-for-13, HR, 5 RBI in Chicago) and the deeper L.A. bullpen as additional edges that keep the true price closer to -250 in his model, making the current moneyline worth a wager.

Storin endorsed Oneil Cruz at +390 to homer off Angels lefty Tyler Anderson despite the same-handed matchup. Cruz has opened 2025 with an 18.5% barrel rate (93rd percentile), a 56.6% hard-hit rate (94th) and his customary 100th-percentile max exit velocity. Anderson’s 62.3% fly-ball rate this year continues a multi-season trend, and he has been vulnerable to left-handed power: 1.82 HR/9 to LHB in 2023, 1.77 HR/9 in 2024, and all three long balls allowed in 2025 have also come from lefties. Anderson’s modest 18.2% strikeout rate in the split should give Cruz plenty of contact opportunities, leading Storin to label the Pirates shortstop a strong long-ball bet.

Caleb Wilfinger recommended betting Under 7 runs (-110, playable to -120) in Friday’s Pirates-Dodgers clash, calling it a classic pitchers’ duel. He highlighted Paul Skenes’ 2.87 ERA across five starts and even sturdier underlying numbers—a 2.06 xERA, 3.4% walk rate, .237 xwOBA, and 56.6% ground-ball clip that all sit in the top-10 percent of MLB. Skenes has yielded only 10 earned runs this year and has already stifled L.A. in limited exposure. On the other side, Yoshinobu Yamamoto owns a microscopic 0.93 ERA with a 35.2% strikeout rate, 63.5% ground-ball rate, and just three earned runs allowed in 29 innings. Wilfinger argued the Pirates’ light-hitting lineup won’t crack Yamamoto, while Skenes should neutralize a Dodgers offense that hasn’t solved him yet. With two Cy Young frontrunners on the mound and both inducing grounders at elite clips, he expects a low-scoring game that stays below the posted total.