Martin wants bettors on Seattle because Paul Skenes has been limited to 4–5 innings in his last two outings as Pittsburgh protects its prized rookie on a non-contending club. That hands a shaky Pirates bullpen plenty of work, and Pittsburgh owns a 12-29 road record. Meanwhile George Kirby has posted back-to-back starts of six innings, three hits, one earned run and sports a pristine 41:9 K:BB ratio. Seattle also owns a large recent-form lineup edge. Expect a short price due to Skenes’ name value, but Martin argues Kirby and the home split are worth betting.

Brad Pick Dawgz grabbed the Pirates money-line solely because "In Paul Skenes we trust." He forecasted a 1–0 or 2–1 type game and believes the rookie flamethrower can shut down Seattle long enough for Pittsburgh’s offense to scratch across the lone run it needs, even on the road.

Scott Reichel called Pittsburgh a live dog at +155 and urged listeners to fade Seattle’s -185 price tag because Luis Castillo’s underlying numbers are slipping. Castillo’s strike-out rate has dropped three straight months while his contact percentage has jumped, leading to eight homers allowed across his last five outings. His 3.55 ERA masks a 4.29 xFIP that hints at more regression. Reichel added that rookie right-hander Kyle Burrows has limited opponents to one run or fewer in three of four starts, and even if he only goes four or five frames that is enough to let Pittsburgh control the first-five market. With Seattle’s lineup ranking bottom-10 in wRC+ versus righties since mid-June, Reichel will fire on the Pirates at anything better than +140 and sprinkle a half-unit on the first-five money-line.