Guy Boston recommended betting Andrew McCutchen UNDER 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs for Wednesday’s meeting with Sonny Gray. Boston pointed out that McCutchen owns poor 2025 splits against right-handed pitching and specifically struggles with sliders, a pitch Gray leans on more than 30% of the time. In career matchups versus Gray, current Pirates have produced a .233 xBA and .288 xwOBA, while McCutchen’s individual run-value versus sliders is well into the negative. The tout noted that Pittsburgh’s veteran has just a .621 OPS against righties this season and whiffed on 38% of the sliders he saw in May. Because the play only requires Gray to neutralize McCutchen for two trips through the order—and Gray’s K-rate against this roster is 30.2%—Boston prefers the prop to risking full strikeout or pitcher outs lines.

Guy Boston likes backing Sonny Gray on the first-five run line at Pittsburgh. He acknowledged Gray’s underlying metrics show slight velocity and spin erosion but stressed the matchup overrides those concerns: against the current Pirate roster he owns a 30.2% strikeout rate, 4.2% walk rate, .233 xBA and .288 xwOBA across 96 plate appearances. Pittsburgh’s offense ranks near the bottom of MLB and mustered just one run Tuesday. Gray tossed 5 IP/1 ER against them earlier this year, and St. Louis has won five straight, seven of nine. Because full-game prices sit around –170/–180 and the Cardinals could lose their ninth-inning ABs as the home team, Boston prefers the first-five run line and is also eyeing Gray strikeout props given the historical 30% K-rate.

Razzle called Sonny Gray a "pretty solid play" at an $8,200 salary despite ugly recent box scores. Gray already handled these Pirates once this year and carries the slate’s top strike-out prop at 5.5 with juice to the OVER. His +160 win odds are third-best, and Razzle expects Gray’s home/road splits to normalize – last season he was dramatically better at Busch Stadium. The game total sits at 7.5 (second lowest on the slate, juice to the under) further boosting floor. In short, the skills remain intact and the matchup plus Vegas lines give Gray both strikeout upside and win equity in a price tier that won’t break roster construction.

Scott Reichel endorsed Mitch Keller over 4.5 strikeouts at +134. Keller fanned six Cardinals over 7.1 scoreless innings in their first meeting this year and has cleared five punch-outs in three of his last four starts when throwing at least 90 pitches. Reichel pulled the Cardinals’ last-30-plate-appearance splits versus right-handers and noted they rank bottom-10 in contact rate while carrying a 24% K-rate. With a low bar, plus money, and a matchup Keller has already dominated, Reichel sees this as a simple value play rather than chasing a high-variance ladder.

Lindquist recommended betting Cardinals left-handed power bats—specifically Lars Nootbaar, Brendan Donovan, and Alec Burleson—for home-run or total-base props against Mitch Keller. Keller’s recent surge in barrels allowed has pushed his expected slugging north of .470, and his four-seam/slider combo is far less effective versus lefties. Nootbaar’s leadoff role gives him max plate appearances, while Donovan’s on-base skills set up RBI chances. He cautioned bettors about Burleson’s late-game pinch-hit risk but still likes the price if books hang a long number. Wind and weather look neutral, making the matchup-based fade of Keller the key driver.

Cash Out Sports Picks sided with St. Louis, pointing to opposite trends for the two clubs. Pittsburgh has dropped nine of ten overall and the last four Mitch Keller starts, while its lineup has gone silent. St. Louis has won five of Sonny Gray’s seven outings and is finding a rhythm at Busch Stadium. Gray is 3-1 despite a six-run stumble last time out, whereas Keller’s season-long struggles resurfaced when San Diego lit him up. Against a Pirates offense averaging just three road runs, the tout trusts Gray to steady the ship and the Cardinals to cash the money line.

For the same matchup, Cash Out Sports Picks grabbed the under, highlighting Pittsburgh’s anemic bats. The Pirates rank 26th in road scoring at exactly three runs per game and have topped three runs only once in their last eight contests. Gray already shut this lineup down earlier in the season, and even Keller’s lone bright spot came against St. Louis back in April. With both pitchers capable of quality starts and the Pirates’ offense sputtering, the tout projects a low-scoring grind that stays beneath the total.

Cash Out Sports Picks sided with St. Louis, pointing to opposite trends for the two clubs. Pittsburgh has dropped nine of ten overall and the last four Mitch Keller starts, while its lineup has gone silent. St. Louis has won five of Sonny Gray’s seven outings and is finding a rhythm at Busch Stadium. Gray is 3-1 despite a six-run stumble last time out, whereas Keller’s season-long struggles resurfaced when San Diego lit him up. Against a Pirates offense averaging just three road runs, the tout trusts Gray to steady the ship and the Cardinals to cash the money line.

Just A Bet Outside pointed to Willson Contreras as a hitter to lean on Wednesday because of his history versus Mitch Keller. Contreras owns a 7-for-22 career line against the Pirates’ right-hander, a matchup Stephen placed in his ‘good hitter matchups’ section. He suggested that history is reason enough to look at Contreras props such as 1+ hit or total bases and to keep the Cardinal backstop on DFS short-lists.

Cash Out Sports Picks backed the Cardinals on the money line, stressing St. Louis’ recent stranglehold over Pittsburgh at Busch Stadium. The Cards have taken five of the last six home meetings while holding a microscopic 2.29 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in that span. Offensively they sit top-5 in several categories and own a .260 team batting average (3rd in MLB). Matthew Liberatore is 2-0 with a 2.00 ERA in three 2025 home starts, whereas the Pirates limp in on a four-game skid after being shut out by San Diego. With Pittsburgh’s lineup in the bottom half of every major metric and St. Louis winning two-thirds of its home games, the tout believes the price is still short on the superior side.

Bryan Power advised grabbing St. Louis at +115 despite phenom Paul Skenes taking the ball for Pittsburgh. Power highlighted that the Pirates have dropped four straight, were swept by San Diego over the weekend, and blew another lead Monday because their offense cannot score (75 wRC+ last seven days) and their bullpen remains a liability (4.52 ERA). Skenes can only cover six innings, Power argued, leaving the final frames to that shaky relief corps. On the other side, Matthew Liberatore owns one of MLB’s top FIPs, suggesting his strong surface stats are sustainable. Add in the Cardinals’ deeper lineup and better bullpen and Power views the underdog price as value, even if Skenes shoves early. Once he exits, the Redbirds’ offensive edge and late-inning advantage should flip the game in their favor.

Peter Dewey recommended playing the First 5 Innings UNDER 4.5 runs (-175) in Pirates–Cardinals. He pointed to Paul Skenes’ 2.74 ERA and stingy 0.91 WHIP, noting the Pittsburgh right-hander has allowed more than three earned runs only once all year. Opposing him, Matthew Liberatore owns a 3.44 ERA and sparkling 2.34 FIP through six starts with just one outing above three earned. Dewey added that while St. Louis ranks No. 2 in batting average, it sits outside the top 10 in runs, and Pittsburgh’s offense has been dreadful—27th in runs and 28th in OPS. With both pitchers excelling and the Pirates’ bats stuck in neutral, Dewey expects minimal early scoring.

Guy Boston targeted Andrew McCutchen UNDER 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs at plus money in a game carrying just a 7-run total. Lefty Matthew Liberatore has held right-handed hitters to a .214 xBA and 30 % strikeout rate this season while leaning on a sweeping slider that accounts for 39 % whiffs. McCutchen owns a .196 average and 31 % K-rate versus sliders in 2025 and carries only three barrels in his last 59 batted balls. With Paul Skenes expected to neutralize St. Louis on the other side, Boston projects limited traffic and therefore few run-producing chances for any Pirate, especially a platoon-susceptible McCutchen who may get yanked for defense late. He likes anything at +100 or better on the under.

Zerillo grabbed the Cardinals at +110, trusting Matthew Liberatore’s breakout and fading the support behind Paul Skenes. Skenes still boasts elite indicators (2.60 xERA, 109 Stuff+, 113 Pitching+) but has consciously sacrificed strikeouts (-8.3% K rate YoY) to pitch deeper, exposing games to a Pirates bullpen that ranks 24th in xFIP and 23rd in K-BB%. Offensively Pittsburgh is anemic (79 wRC+, 29th MLB). Liberatore, meanwhile, has unlocked a sharper slider that neutralizes righties (2.95 xFIP, 20.6% K-BB% vs righties) and pairs it with drastically improved command (2.3% walk rate, 105 Location+). His career-best 2.94 xERA and 2.91 xFIP suggest he’s a mid-rotation quality starter right now. With St. Louis holding the better bullpen and lineup in front of a surging Liberatore, Zerillo saw + odds as generous.

Bettor Mark leaned to the Cardinals +115 to spoil another "Paul Skenes Day." He reminded listeners that blindly fading Skenes has already produced multiple plus-money cashes for the channel because Pittsburgh still cannot hit—the Buccos sit 28th in wRC+ since April 15. St. Louis roughed up the Pirates bullpen Monday (6–3 lead during recording) and now sends lefty Matthew Liberatore, whose new slider has trimmed his hard-hit rate to 30%. Mark believes the cheap price reflects nothing more than Skenes’ prospect buzz and called it "a great spot to fade the rookie on the road."

Kenny G recommended attacking the 7-run total rather than picking a side in Pirates-Cardinals. He noted both starters have been tagged by this exact opponent: Paul Skenes surrendered 5 ER over 6 frames to St. Louis earlier in the year, while Matthew Liberatore coughed up 5 ER across 6.1 innings when he faced Pittsburgh. Neither bullpen inspires confidence—Pirates sit at a 4.26 ERA and the Cards an even worse 4.37. Offensively the Pirates are ice-cold (28th in runs, 29th in slugging), but Kenny trusts the Cardinals’ surging bats, who rank 12th in runs and have produced 6-5-6-3-1 runs their last five, to do most of the heavy lifting. Busch Stadium has played 21-13-2 to the over and St. Louis is 13-6 at home, while the Pirates’ road mark is 5-12 with totals frequently suppressed into this 7 range. With both pitchers carrying opponent-specific scars and two middling pens waiting in relief, Kenny expects at least eight combined runs and called Over 7 “the only number that makes sense.”

Power grabbed Pittsburgh at +125 after St. Louis played (and swept) a double-header Sunday. He routinely fades clubs the day after twin bills and does not trust starter Miles Mikolas despite zero homers allowed: the right-hander owns a 4.66 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and just 5.3 K/9. The Cards’ bullpen is bottom-7 in ERA as well. Pittsburgh was just swept by San Diego, creating what Power calls a classic buy-low/sell-high spot.

Guy Boston played Jared Triolo under 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs at –160 (he prices it closer to –170). Triolo has stayed under this combo prop in all 19 games this season, slashing just .125 (4-for-34) with one RBI, zero runs and a meager 6.8 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. He now faces Miles Mikolas, whose slider/sinker mix limits righties to a .259 average and .269 wOBA. Boston emphasized that Triolo’s worst pitch-type results are against sliders, the very pitch Mikolas leans on most. Other books already have the line in the –170s, so the current –160 at MGM offers perceived value. Boston expects Triolo’s cold streak to continue and is willing to eat the juice.

JD Bets backed the Cardinals at –140 on the moneyline, leaning on Miles Mikolas’ current groove and Pittsburgh’s free-falling offense. He highlighted that the Pirates are 2-8 over their last ten with a four-game skid, ranking near the bottom of MLB in every run-creation metric on his spreadsheet. Mikolas, meanwhile, has allowed three or fewer earned runs in four straight—including scoreless outings against Cincinnati and Atlanta—while containing power: Pirates hitters own high batting averages against him (.382, .381, .359) but zero home runs and only four RBI across 66 combined plate appearances. JD called them “singles merchants” who fail to push runners across. With St. Louis riding a 6-4 stretch thanks to pitching and enjoying home-field, he labeled the Cards a “safe moneyline play” and passed on all prop markets for this game.

Todd Zola recommended scooping up Lars Nootbaar (available in roughly 70% of ESPN leagues) for Monday’s home date with rookie right-hander Carmen Mlodzinski and a Pirates bullpen graded a C– by THE BAT X. Busch Stadium is expected to feature warm hitting weather, and St. Louis owns a 4.9 implied run total. Zola also mentioned Willson Contreras, Masyn Winn, Alec Burleson and Victor Scott II as widely available Cards who can exploit the matchup, but singled out Nootbaar’s .365 career OBP versus righties as the safest plug-and-play.

On the total, the tout took the under. He cited Busch Stadium’s run-suppressing tendencies, the Cardinals’ dip in batting average and RISP production at home, and a power outage on both sides—St. Louis and Pittsburgh are bottom-10 in home runs. With Mikolas pitching to contact and the Pirates’ staff limiting long balls and walks, Cash Out Sports Picks projected a tight, low-scoring affair.

Shubham Soni pushed Oneil Cruz at +280 to go deep in St. Louis. Cruz is doing everything in 2025—.243/.377/.505 with eight bombs, 18 RBI, 20 runs and 14 steals in only 32 games—and Busch Stadium plays friendlier to left-handed power than people think. Miles Mikolas has coughed up a 4.66 ERA and 1.34 WHIP over 29 innings and has always been softer on lefties. Soni likes the combination of Cruz’s elite bat speed, plate discipline and park factors against a righty who is struggling to miss bats.

Pittsburgh at +130 holds a 43% implied chance, but Kingpin AI sees 46% (≈+6% EV). The model downplays St. Louis’s traditional home aura and favors the Pirates’ energetic young core to pull the upset often enough to justify a wager.

Cash Out Sports Picks endorsed the Cardinals moneyline in the series opener. Pittsburgh has lost six of seven and brings a slumping lineup into Busch Stadium, while Miles Mikolas has quietly delivered steady, low-walk, contact-management outings. The Cardinals rank top-10 in team batting average and strikeout avoidance, and their bullpen sits top-10 in suppressing homers and walks. He also flagged the Pirates’ plate-discipline issues and recent cold stretch as reasons St. Louis should control the contest.

Lonte Smith joined Reichel on the OVER, noting that two of the three April meetings already went past the number and that St. Louis is 7-3 at home while averaging 5.2 runs per game there. Smith admitted Pittsburgh has dropped four straight and eight of 10, but he chalked that up to facing the Dodgers, Cubs and Padres back-to-back. Majinski’s high-contact profile (1.5 WHIP, just 6.4 K/9) paired with limited length forces manager Derek Shelton to expose a Pirates bullpen that owns a 4.67 ERA on the road. Smith sees Mikolas as only marginally better—he’s allowed 10 runs on 18 hits across his last 11 innings—and expects both clubs to be into their mediocre relief corps by the sixth thanks to the Cardinals’ Sunday doubleheader. His call: 6-5 final, comfortably over 8.5.

Data Skrive projects Cardinals 6-5, recommending STL ‑145 and Over 8.5. Miles Mikolas sports a 3.02 ERA at home versus 6.71 on the road, and he’ll face a Pirates lineup that sits 29th in ISO against righties. Carmen Mlodzinski’s 6.58 ERA and .397 wOBA allowed to left-handed hitters sets up well for power bats Nolan Gorman and Lars Nootbaar. Both bullpens are bottom-10 in strand rate, so the model expects late fireworks to push the combined score past the posted total.

Kenny G advised backing St. Louis at –152, arguing Miles Mikolas’ recent form plus the Pirates’ punchless bats create a clear edge. Mikolas followed seven shutout frames in Atlanta with 5 1/3 scoreless at Cincinnati, trimming his ERA to 4.66 and, according to Kenny, rediscovering the sinker that fueled his 2022 All-Star season. He now faces a Pittsburgh lineup that ranks 27th in runs, 27th in batting average and 29th in slugging and has dropped seven of its last eight. Opposing opener-turned-starter Carmen Mlodzinski sports a 6.58 ERA and rarely reaches the fifth inning, forcing an early handoff to a 4.08 bullpen. Kenny is not ready to crown the Cardinals’ own relievers (4.51 ERA) but notes their offense is still top-5 in average and OBP and should grab the early lead. He made the Cards –170 on his numbers and is willing to lay the current –152.

Lindquist recommended attacking Miles Mikolas with Oneil Cruz HR and over 1.5 total-bases props. Mikolas owns a 16.2° average launch angle against—worst among qualified starters—and just a 14.7% strikeout rate, giving Cruz every opportunity to elevate. Cruz’s splits versus righties are elite (62.2% hard-hit, .587 xSLG) and his 112-mph max exit velo plays up in Busch’s humid evening air. Lindquist pointed out that St. Louis has started yanking Mikolas early after back-to-back outings under five innings, so bettors should consider same-game parlays including Pirates first-five team total over 2.5. He is allocating a full unit across Cruz HR (+475) and a smaller ladder on 2+ total bases at even money.

Scott Reichel bet the full-game OVER 8.5 because both pitching staffs arrive compromised. Pittsburgh hands the ball to rookie Martin Majinski, who carries an 8.44 ERA and rarely reaches the sixth inning, while Miles Mikolas is being asked to lay –160 despite a 4.88 ERA and only one quality start in his last four. Reichel expects shortened leashes after the Cardinals played a Sunday doubleheader against the Mets, burning four relievers in the process. He added that the Pirates took two of three from St. Louis in early April with two of those tilts clearing the total, and Busch Stadium’s early-season run rate (4.9 per game) suggests neutral weather conditions. With tired bullpens, shaky starters and a modest 8.5, Reichel projects both teams to reach four runs and cash the over.

Shubham Soni recommended Oneil Cruz at +280 to go deep in St. Louis, noting the 6'7" shortstop’s two-way dominance (.243/.377/.505 slash with 8 homers, 14 steals in 32 games). Cruz bats left-handed against Miles Mikolas, who sports a 4.66 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, and well-documented struggles versus lefties in Busch Stadium. Soni likes the blend of Cruz’s elite contact quality, base-running aggression that guarantees plate appearances, and a vulnerable veteran arm to create one of the slate’s best value power tickets.

Peterson fired on Over 8.5 (made it 8.6) because neither starter miss bats and both bullpens leak. Miles Mikolas has miraculously avoided a homer through 29 innings, but his 5.3 K/9 and 4.66 ERA suggest that streak ends soon, especially with a St. Louis relief unit ranked 25th (4.73 ERA). Pirates opener Carmen Mlodzinski sports a 6.52 ERA but a much better 3.52 FIP. His five-inning cap exposes a bullpen carrying a 4.26 ERA (19th). With plenty of traffic expected once the starters tire, Peterson sees nine runs as the most likely outcome.

Michael Savio advised fading Miles Mikolas and backing the Pirates ML at +122. He reminded readers that the veteran right-hander owns a 1-2 record, 4.66 ERA and 1.34 WHIP, and Pittsburgh has owned him historically: a .296 team batting average over 142 plate appearances. Individual tormentors include Adam Frazier (.382 in 34 AB), KeBryan Hayes (.381 in 21 AB) and Bryan Reynolds (.359 in 39 AB). While Mikolas has strung together three decent outings, Savio argued the familiarity angle and the Pirates’ track record trump the mini hot streak. Even though Carmen Mlodzinski comes in with a 6.58 ERA and 1.81 WHIP, Savio noted the Cards’ lineup has cratered to a .630 OPS over the last week and is batting just .135 lifetime off the young right-hander. Given St. Louis’ offensive funk and Pittsburgh’s success versus Mikolas, Savio expects the Bucs to steal one on the road.

It's The Final Round said Brendan Donovan is a top betting/DFS target Monday against Pirates right-hander Carmen Mlodzinski. Mlodzinski leans on a four-seam fastball 39 % of the time and has already yielded a .304 average and one homer with it, while Donovan is batting .367 with a homer off four-seamers. Donovan is also 3-for-3 (.444) on sweepers and .333 on cutters, pitches Mlodzinski mixes 21 % apiece and is allowing .300-plus batting averages on both. In their tiny head-to-head sample Donovan is 3-for-5 (.600). The Cardinal has registered a hit in 22 of his last 25 games and owns a 43.9 % sweet-spot launch-angle rate (14th-best in MLB). By contrast, Mlodzinski sits 210th of 368 pitchers in limiting that contact. The tout expects Donovan to clear his hits/total-bases props and serve as a cash-game anchor in DFS contests.