Will Hill took Justin Herbert Over 23.5 rushing yards. The Chargers’ injury-riddled offensive line has driven Herbert’s scrambling spike—he’s logged 31, 62, and 57 rushing yards the past three weeks. Facing a Steelers front that blitzes at the league’s 5th-highest rate, Hill expects another dozen yards over expectation via broken-play scrambles and designed keepers.

Taking Pittsburgh +3, Tafur admitted he’s been burned by the Steelers defense before but likes the matchup: the Chargers rank 29th in pressure rate allowed (40%) whenever left tackle Joe Alt is out, and T.J. Watt’s group finally regained form against the Colts. He expects the pass rush to decide the game.

Brooke Cersosimo issued a caution flag on Justin Herbert with his protection unit in shambles. Herbert has already taken 28 sacks (third-most) and a league-high 80 QB hits, and now loses bookend tackles Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt for the season. Even after the Trevor Penning trade, Cersosimo doubts a patched front can withstand a Steelers pass rush ranking third in sacks and second in hits. She’s fading Herbert in DFS, likes the Steelers D/ST, and leans Pittsburgh +136 on the moneyline.

Despite being burned by Pittsburgh earlier in the year, Tafur jumped back on the Steelers at +3, pointing to a glaring mismatch in the trenches. The Chargers surrender a 40% pressure rate—29th in the league—whenever rookie LT Joe Alt is out, and Tafur expects T.J. Watt and company to capitalize. With Justin Herbert likely to face heat all night, Tafur believes the three points provide plenty of cushion.

Scott Pianowski made the Steelers +3 his best bet, arguing that Pittsburgh habitually plays to the level of its opponent and therefore tends to be live as an underdog against stronger teams. With the Chargers entering Week 10 as playoff contenders, Pianowski expects Mike Tomlin’s defense to ratchet up its blitz rate and ugly the game into a one-score slog, the exact environment where Pittsburgh has thrived. He also noted that Justin Herbert’s offense has sputtered in protection-heavy matchups, giving the Steelers a clear path to hang inside the number or steal an outright win.

Eric Moody pegged Oronde Gadsden II as a week-winning tight end. The rookie has seen five-plus targets in four straight, scoring 11-plus fantasy points each time with two 18-point efforts. Pittsburgh allows the third-most fantasy points to TEs and owns the league’s third-best pass-rush win rate (48.1%), a matchup that should force Justin Herbert to fire quick, middle-of-the-field throws. With L.A.’s line 29th in pass-block win rate, Moody views Gadsden as Herbert’s primary hot read and a bargain $4.1K DraftKings play.

MacMillan grabbed +3 with Pittsburgh, citing the Chargers’ nightmare tackle situation—both starters on IR—against a front that already pressures on 22.7% of dropbacks and ranks 3rd in sacks (27). L.A. allows an NFL-high 26.5% pressure rate and its once-stingy defense has slid to 17th in DVOA, giving up 5.2 yards per play. He expects Justin Herbert to be under duress all night. Bet: Steelers +3 (-110, BetMGM).