Ben Coley invested 1.5 points each-way on Davis Thompson at 50/1 (1/5 odds, 8 places), pointing to three consecutive positive strokes-gained putting weeks that addressed the one weakness in an otherwise elite tee-to-green profile (20th on Tour). Thompson debuted at Silverado with a T9 two years ago and followed with a T30 last season while gaining with driver and irons both times. Fresh off a T11 at the Wyndham, he narrowly missed the FedExCup Playoffs by one spot, giving him clear motivation to climb into the 51-60 range that unlocks 2026 Signature Events and to crack the world top-50 for major access. Coley believes the extended rest compared with Ryder Cup participants is a net positive and expects Thompson’s sustained ball-striking plus recent putting uptick to put him squarely in the mix.

Ben Coley staked 3 points each-way on Collin Morikawa at 25/1 (1/5 odds, 8 places) to lift the Procore Championship. Coley argued that Silverado is effectively a home game for the California native and recalled Morikawa’s history here: PGA Tour debut on a sponsor invite, a T10 the following season, and overall only one missed cut in 17 California starts that include second, third, fourth and a major victory. Morikawa is gaining 1.22 strokes per round with his irons over the past month—virtually identical to Scottie Scheffler’s season-long 1.23—and has paired that with improved driving. Coley expects poa annua greens to spark the putter, notes the added motivation of justifying a contested Ryder Cup captain’s pick, and sees Scheffler’s course debut plus limited West-Coast form from other favorites as a window for Morikawa to win or place.

Gregory flagged Patrick Cantlay at +1800 after a season-best runner-up at East Lake where he led the entire field in strokes-gained tee-to-green and approach. With that fresh ball-striking clinic and no travel concerns ahead of the Ryder Cup, Gregory implied Cantlay’s outright number offers value relative to his current form.

Chris Gregory pointed out that Justin Thomas opens at +1600 for the Procore Championship after a T7 at East Lake. Gregory emphasized Thomas’ comfort at Silverado—five career starts have produced three Top-5 finishes and another Top-10—arguing that this blend of recent form and elite course history justifies backing him at 16/1 in the outright market.

Roberts backed Russell Henley at 14/1 as the best value alternative to Scheffler. Henley has climbed to a career-best No. 4 in the world on the strength of seven straight top-20 finishes, capped by a runner-up at the Tour Championship. While his course log at Silverado reads 41-MC-MC, those starts came in 2016 and 2018 when his form was nowhere near today’s consistency. Roberts noted Henley’s precise iron play and recent win at Bay Hill as indicators that a sixth career title is imminent. Because Henley and Scheffler paired to a 2-1 record at the 2024 Presidents Cup and are expected to partner again at the Ryder Cup, Roberts anticipates Henley will be fully dialed in and “run Scheffler the closest” this week.

Andy Roberts named Scottie Scheffler his "confident" outright bet at 5/2. Roberts pointed out that Scheffler has already piled up five PGA Tour victories this season and rolls in off a blistering run of 1st-3rd-4th-1st over his last four starts. With two weeks of rest after spending time with his wife and infant son, Scheffler arrives fresh and motivated to erase the sting of a poor showing at the last Ryder Cup. Roberts stressed that Silverado’s North Course usually turns into a birdie fest—an ideal setup for Scheffler, whose tee-to-green dominance allows him to lap weaker fields when the putter cooperates. Key rivals Rory McIlroy and Xander Schauffele skipped Napa, so Roberts believes the World No. 1 faces an unusually soft field and can “run away” with the trophy if the Spider putter heats up even modestly.

Harrison acknowledged Scottie Scheffler’s "machine-like" five-win season makes him a deserving +205 favorite, but he cautioned bettors against laying that pre-tournament price. A +205 outright implies roughly a 33% win probability—a number Harrison considers too rich in a 144-man field, even for the game’s hottest player. He advised either passing on Scheffler altogether or waiting for an in-tournament dip before getting involved.

For those hunting deep flyers, Harrison highlighted Adam Svensson at +30000 outright and as a top-10/20 option. Svensson is fresh off a T-14 two starts ago and opened that event with a sizzling 60. He’s also finished inside the top-15 in each of his last two trips to Silverado, suggesting the track suits his eye. Harrison thinks the Canadian is live to crack leaderboards again and could reward top-20 tickets at juicy prices.

Harrison flagged Tom Kim at a massive +14000, arguing the number is simply too big for a player who piled up three PGA Tour titles before turning 22, the youngest to do so since Tiger Woods. Kim’s 2025 form has been ugly, but Harrison views the outright ticket as a classic buy-low spot on elite talent that only needs one spike week to cash a 140-1 lottery ticket.

At +4500, Harrison called Max Homa a "horse for this course" even after what he labeled a nightmare 2025 season. Homa flashed a pulse when he led the final round of the John Deere Classic before settling for T-5, his best finish of the year. More importantly, he dominated Silverado from 2022-23 with back-to-back wins and followed that up with a T-7 last year. Harrison believes the proven course history makes Homa an enticing bounce-back target at long-shot odds.

Harrison recommended betting Maverick McNealy at +2500, noting the American will be looking to prove a point after being left off the U.S. Ryder Cup roster. McNealy has logged six top-25s in his last nine starts and was solo third at the BMW Championship two tournaments ago, giving him seven top-10s on the year. He also finished runner-up at Silverado in 2021, so he can lean on positive memories while chasing his second PGA Tour victory.

Michael Harrison said he is opening his betting card with Sam Burns at +1800 to win the Procore Championship. Burns tied for 7th the last time he played Silverado in 2021 and has been one of the tour’s steadiest performers since May, rattling off five top-7 finishes—including a playoff loss at the RBC Canadian Open, a T-4 at the BMW Championship, and a T-7 at the Tour Championship. Harrison argued that if the heavy favorite Scottie Scheffler slips, Burns’ current form positions him to collect career win number six at a price that still offers real upside.

Jacobs advocated a 70/1 flutter on Patrick Fishburn, stressing a rare double dose of course history and comp-course form: 3rd at last year’s Procore debut and 5th at this year’s Valero Texas Open, a tournament he shows is strongly correlated to Silverado through winners like Brendan Steele and Kevin Tway. Fishburn arrives with two top-10s and three top-18s in his last five starts, including an 8-under closing 65 for 8th at the Wyndham. His irons have popped—Wyndham was his second-best approach week of the season behind Texas—and he gained steadily Tee-to-Green during that run. Jacobs believes only modest improvement over last year’s effort is needed for Fishburn to contend and recent ball-striking suggests that jump is imminent.

Calling Bhatia his “banker” at 40/1, Jacobs highlighted two prior PGA Tour victories (including the Barracuda in California) plus a Valero Texas Open trophy on a course he deems highly correlated to Silverado. Bhatia owns marquee finishes this season—9th at Genesis, 3rd at THE PLAYERS, 6th at the FedEx St. Jude—and has logged six top-25s since May. He ranked inside the top-8 in SG Tee-to-Green in two of his last three starts and briefly led both the 3M Open and the FedEx playoff opener. The 22-year-old (9th here as an 18-year-old in 2020) now returns to his home state with form, course fit, and elite ball-striking converging, making him Jacobs’ safest each-way play.

Jacobs recommended 45/1 on college star Jackson Koivun, pointing out the amateur just anchored the U.S. Walker Cup side with a 3-0-1 record and has finished 11th, 6th, and 5th in consecutive PGA Tour starts. His irons have sharpened over those two most recent outings and the overall Tee-to-Green profile is trending. Born in California, Koivun returns to familiar Poa greens while many top opponents may be looking ahead to the Ryder Cup. Jacobs invoked Nick Dunlap’s 2024 American Express victory as precedent for a non-pro breakthrough and believes Koivun has the mindset and numbers to follow suit.

Tom Jacobs called David Lipsky the week’s best value at 150/1, noting the Californian is 3-for-4 making the cut at Silverado and was runner-up here last year after sitting 10th at halfway on debut. Lipsky comes in hot with two 3rd-place finishes and five straight made cuts, ranking top-25 in Strokes Gained: Approach in each of his last four measured starts and top-20 Tee-to-Green in the last three. Jacobs added that Poa-annua comfort, local roots, and a 4th at the Sony Open – a proven comp to this tournament via past winners such as Patton Kizzire – reinforce the upside. He argued the market is underrating a player whose ball-striking is peaking at exactly the right time.

Matt Cradock called Akshay Bhatia a live long shot at +4000. Bhatia closed the regular season with a T6 at the FedEx St. Jude and T13 at the Tour Championship, showing gains across driving, irons and putting. While he missed the cut here in 2023, Cradock reminded readers of Bhatia’s T9 at Silverado in 2020 as evidence the course can suit him. With many bettors focused on the 10 U.S. Ryder Cuppers, Cradock believes Bhatia’s all-around form and proven upside offer sneaky win equity at 40-1.

Elliott Heath backed Justin Thomas at +1600, citing three sparkling finishes at Silverado—5th in 2023, T4 in 2019 and T8 in 2016—as proof the North Course suits his eye. Heath added that Thomas rode a hot putter to a T7 at the Tour Championship, suggesting the swing tweaks he made mid-summer are finally clicking. With only Scheffler shorter on the board, Heath argues the combination of elite course history and trending form makes Thomas a logical outright wager.

Elliott Heath said Patrick Cantlay is worth backing at +1600 to win the Procore Championship, pointing to a clear uptick in ball-striking over the last month. Cantlay followed a T9 at the FedEx St. Jude with a runner-up at East Lake, his two best iron-play weeks of 2025. Heath likes that the Californian returns to his home state, eliminating travel concerns, and noted Cantlay has not lifted a trophy since the 2022 BMW Championship—fuel for extra motivation. With Scottie Scheffler soaking up most of the win equity at +225, Heath believes Cantlay’s recent form and course fit make 16-1 a fair outright price.

Despite a rough 2025 campaign that features only two top-25s, DaSilva sees value in Adam Svensson at a juicy +17500. Svensson has posted back-to-back top-13 finishes in his two career starts at Silverado (13th in 2023, 12th in 2024). DaSilva thinks that strong course fit — coupled with a tee-to-green profile that excels on shorter par-72s — makes Svensson an intriguing long-shot lottery ticket.

DaSilva recommended sprinkling on Matt Kuchar at +8000 because the veteran quietly churns out good results at Silverado: he has three straight finishes of T-13 or better here. Kuchar flashed more life in July with a T-5 at the John Deere Classic, suggesting the 45-year-old still owns a top-10 ceiling on a positional course that rewards his fairway-and-greens approach.

DaSilva threw a dart at world No. 1 amateur Jackson Koivun at +4500, noting the Auburn junior just helped Team USA win the Walker Cup at Pebble Beach. He labeled Koivun a "budding star" whose polished all-around game could translate immediately against a Ryder Cup-heavy field that might be more focused on Rome than Napa.

Although Sahith Theegala’s 2025 season has been disappointing, DaSilva likes taking a stab at +8000 because the Pepperdine alum absolutely owns Silverado. Theegala won this tournament in 2023 (then the Fortinet Championship) and has finished seventh (2024) and sixth (2022) in his other two most recent starts. Returning to his home state on a track where he’s posted four top-14 finishes in his last five visits gives DaSilva confidence Theegala can flip the switch despite shaky year-to-date stats.

Coley placed 2 points each-way on Akshay Bhatia at 30/1 (1/5 odds, 8 places), highlighting a statistical run of gaining strokes on approach in eight straight starts since the U.S. Open and solid off-the-tee numbers. Bhatia finished ninth at Silverado in 2020 without a Tour card and owns two PGA Tour victories, one of which came at TPC San Antonio—a course strongly correlated with Silverado through multiple champion crossovers such as Brendan Steele and Patton Kizzire. The tout also cites Bhatia’s sharpened short game, recent signs of putting life after a mid-season slump, and extra incentive to show Ryder Cup selectors what they missed. Given the field strength boost from 10 U.S. Ryder Cuppers, Coley still trusts Bhatia’s current ball-striking to outclass most non-elite names and contend for a third title.

DaSilva called Patrick Fishburn a sneaky contender at +6600. Fishburn finished solo third in last year’s tournament, just six shots behind Patton Kizzire in his first look at Silverado. He showed additional upside at August’s Wyndham Championship, tying for eighth after back-to-back weekend 65s. DaSilva argues that combination of immediate course success and recent low-round ceiling makes Fishburn an attractive mid-tier outright bet.

DaSilva believes Cameron Young is undervalued at +2200 after a breakout stretch that earned him a Ryder Cup roster spot. Young captured his first PGA Tour title at the Wyndham Championship in early August and followed that with a fourth-place finish at the Tour Championship. DaSilva thinks that momentum, paired with Young’s elite ball-striking profile, makes him a legitimate threat despite this being his Procore debut.

DaSilva highlighted California native J.J. Spaun as a live option at +2800. Spaun’s three most recent trips to Silverado produced finishes of T-9 (2021), T-11 (2023) and T-26 (2024), proof the North Course suits his game. Because Spaun relies on accuracy more than length off the tee, DaSilva feels the shorter 7,123-yard setup neutralizes his biggest weakness and gives him realistic win equity on familiar West Coast poa greens.

Cameron DaSilva said Sam Burns is worth backing at +2000 because the LSU product enters Napa as, in his words, "arguably the hottest putter on tour." Burns flashed clear course comfort the last time he showed up at Silverado, grabbing a T-7 finish in 2021 when the tournament was still branded as the Safeway Open. DaSilva believes that combination of elite current form on the greens and proven results on this shorter, 7,123-yard par-72 layout sets Burns up for another high finish while he tunes up for the Ryder Cup later this month.

Steven Rawlings advised backing Aaron Rai outright on the Betfair Exchange at 55.0 (roughly 54/1) for the BMW PGA Championship. Rawlings noted that Rai’s recent form is better than it looks: although he missed the cut at the European Masters two weeks ago, he rebounded with a second-round 65 that vaulted him from 136th to a tie for 68th. Prior to that, Rai logged T22 at the St Jude Championship, T33 at the British Masters, and a fifth-place finish when defending at Sedgefield— a tree-lined track Rawlings calls a strong Wentworth comp course. Wentworth itself clearly suits him: his last four visits read 14-MC-4-2, including a runner-up finish two years ago when he ranked third in Scrambling. Rawlings stressed that Scrambling and Greens-in-Regulation are historically the two most predictive stats on the West Course, citing that 11 of the last 19 winners ranked top-four in GIR and recent champions all landed top-10 in Scrambling. With high-street books posting only 35/1, Rawlings argued the 55.0 exchange price is a clear mis-price, making Rai his lone pre-tournament bet.

Mike McClure’s SportsLine model flagged Ben Griffin at +2500 as a value outright and DFS play, projecting a realistic shot at the title. Griffin owns two PGA Tour wins this season and enters Silverado on a heater with four consecutive top-12 finishes. Statistically, he ranks inside the tour’s top-25 in strokes-gained tee-to-green, scrambling, putting, and total, while his adjusted scoring average is sixth-best overall. Only two players have recorded more birdies this year, matching the birdie-fest profile often rewarded at the Procore. Despite those metrics, eight golfers carry shorter odds, prompting McClure to label Griffin a "steal" for outright tickets and DFS lineups.

Mike McClure’s SportsLine simulation model, which is up more than $8,000 on PGA best bets since 2020 and has correctly called 16 majors, advised fading Russell Henley at +1600 despite his status as the second betting choice. The model projects Henley to “barely crack the top-10” because Silverado’s North Course added distance this year, exposing his season-long weakness off the tee (159th in driving distance, 96th in strokes-gained off-the-tee). Henley’s poor course history—41st place in three appearances with two missed cuts—further compounds the risk. McClure noted that Henley’s elite putting cannot offset the tougher approach shots he will face from consistently longer yardages, making other options better value in outright or DFS builds.

Bamford fired a 0.5-pt each-way dart at 175/1 on Harry Higgs, citing course history and sneaky form. Higgs was runner-up here in 2020 and owns a stack of California top-20s—9th (2020) and multiple cashes at Torrey, 18th at Pebble, 18th at PGA West. Over his last 10 starts he’s made eight cuts with a runner-up at the Myrtle Beach Classic and four additional top-30s. That surge is backed by ball-striking: Higgs ranks top-10 in this field for both eight-week SG Approach and SG Tee-to-Green despite a lineup that includes 10 U.S. Ryder Cuppers. Bamford also pointed to Higgs’s comfort on Bent/Poa agronomy, evidenced by Korn Ferry wins in Missouri and Kansas plus a career 1st and 3rd SG Putting on similar surfaces earlier this summer. With confidence high and a proven knack for Silverado’s tricky greens, Bamford believes Higgs can threaten the places—and maybe more—at triple-digit odds.

Bamford recommended Akshay Bhatia at 30/1, highlighting the 23-year-old’s affinity for West-Coast Poa surfaces and a sharp playoff run. Bhatia owns a top-10 at Silverado (9th in 2020) and captured his maiden PGA win on Northern California Poa (2023 Barracuda). His last three California starts read 13th (Torrey 2024), 22nd (Pebble 2025) and 9th (Torrey 2025). Arriving 45th in FedEx Cup, Bhatia surged with 6th SG Tee-to-Green at TPC Southwind (6th place) and 26th at Caves Valley, then posted a solid 13th at East Lake while ranking 8th SG Tee-to-Green for the week. With no Ryder Cup distractions and comfort on tight, tree-lined tracks, Bamford expects his elite iron play (top-15 eight-week SG Approach) to shine and sees win equity plus each-way value in an event where aggressive scorers thrive.

Steve Bamford backed Sam Burns each-way at 16/1, arguing the Louisiana native is set for a statement week in Napa. Burns closed the Playoffs with 4th at the BMW and 7th at the Tour Championship, results that earned him Keegan Bradley’s final Ryder Cup spot. Bamford stressed that form spike plus Burns’s proven ceiling—five PGA Tour titles including a WGC and two Valspars—makes the 29-year-old the class of this non-signature field. Silverado suits his resume: he led by two after 54 holes here in 2020 before settling for 7th, and the short, dog-leg layout mirrors prior venues where he has lifted trophies (Innisbrook, Colonial, CC of Jackson). With an 18-month victory drought, no FedEx Cup pressure and a desire to justify his Ryder Cup selection, Bamford sees Burns converting the recent T2G gains (top-10 Off-the-Tee and Putting in eight-week data) into a win.