Cam Stewart locked the Raiders in at +3 as his Silver selection. He argued the number is simply wrong because the three best weapons on the field—Brock Bowers, Jacoby Myers and the running back Jenty—are all on Las Vegas, while New England is leaning on what he called a “washed” Stefon Diggs and an unproven rookie back TreVeyon Henderson. Stewart also pointed out that CB Christian Gonzalez may sit or play at only 70 percent, leaving Bill Belichick without a viable shadow option for Bowers or Myers. With the Patriots question-marks on offense and a compromised secondary, Stewart expects the Raiders to win outright and is happy to grab the field goal for betting cards and teasers.

Cam Stewart is backing Las Vegas as an underdog in New England, arguing the betting market is giving the Patriots far too much respect. Both franchises upgraded from disastrous coaching situations, but Stewart trusts Antonio Pierce’s offense—headlined by a superior skill group—and a markedly stronger defensive line to tilt the matchup. He contends Mike Vrabel’s arrival is being treated as if New England suddenly owns an elite staff, a narrative he rejects. With Vegas holding clear edges on both sides of the ball, Stewart likes the Raiders plus the points.

Just A Bet Outside grabbed Hunter Henry over 3.5 receptions at +135 on Bet365. In 11 starts with Drake May last year Henry cleared this number 8 times, averaging a 21.3 % target share and recording five games with 5+ catches. Josh McDaniels is back calling plays; in their 2023 stint together Henry saw 59 targets, 41 catches and 9 TDs in only 10 starts, confirming that the coordinator schemes looks for him. The Raiders now employ Pete Carroll, whose Seattle defenses ranked 8th, 14th and 13th in TE receptions allowed from 2021-23. Personnel hasn’t improved and Las Vegas surrendered the 5th-most TE catches (102) and yards last season. With Stefon Diggs as the only other established option, Henry remains May’s safety blanket; the tout doubts we’ll see this prop at plus money again and suggests a half-unit play.

Taking Las Vegas +2.5, Makinen believes betting love for the Patriots should swing to the Raiders. He highlighted the seamless pairing of new coach Pete Carroll and quarterback Geno Smith, a duo that posted prolific passing numbers in Seattle. The Raiders also imported explosive RB Ashton Jeanty while retaining defensive star Maxx Crosby. Although New England gets a culture reset with Mike Vrabel and promising QB Drake Maye, Makinen expects Carroll’s proven system to click faster, making LV a live dog in Foxborough.

Calling Las Vegas a "strong upset pick," Joyner assigned 4 confidence on the money-line and 5 on the +2.5 spread because Chip Kelly’s up-tempo scheme lets Geno Smith lean on two explosive rookies: TE Brock Bowers, "arguably the best pass-catching tight end in the NFL," and RB Ashton Jeanty, whom Joyner compares to Barry Sanders. The Raiders also catch a green-rated rush-defense matchup, a potential launch pad for Jeanty’s league-leading aspirations. New England counters with TreVeyon Henderson but plans a workload split with inefficient Rhamondre Stevenson, and Bill O’Brien’s offense lacks big-play upside. Joyner thinks that imbalance gives Vegas both the statistical and narrative edge.

Hill played Ashton Jeanty Over 16.5 rushing attempts. The sixth overall pick now works for new Raiders coach Pete Carroll, a noted run-first disciple. Hill believes Carroll will lean heavily on his prized back right out of the gate, especially in a matchup where Las Vegas projects to control neutral-situation snaps. That volume should clear the modest attempts prop.

Hennion took Las Vegas +115 on the moneyline, leaning on new coach Pete Carroll’s 52-34-3 career ATS record as an underdog (60.5%) and 24-16-3 at +3 or shorter. He expects the Raiders’ defense to rebound from 18th to something closer to its 2023 8th-place DVOA now that last year’s league-second-worst injury luck is behind them and the schedule eases. The front already ranked 10th in pass-rush win rate and 12th in run-stop win rate, a scary matchup for a Patriots offensive line that sat 31st and 32nd in the corresponding ESPN metrics. New England finished 30th in offensive DVOA and was never a market favorite in 2024 yet opens 2025 laying a key number. Since 2004, road underdogs in Weeks 1-2 that missed the playoffs and won 4-8 games are 84-38-5 ATS (68.9%), another box the Raiders check.

Iyer liked New England -2.5, highlighting Drake Maye’s fit in Josh McDaniels’ system and Mike Vrabel’s knack for squeezing extra juice out of a defense. He expects the Patriots to bottle up rookie back Ashton Jeanty and spoil Pete Carroll’s Raiders debut 24-20.

Taking 2.5 points with Las Vegas, Prisco acknowledged the long East-coast trip but expects Pete Carroll to outfox Mike Vrabel in both coaches’ debuts. He trusts Geno Smith’s experience to edge a Patriots squad still installing Vrabel’s system. Prisco’s 24-23 scoreline makes the Raiders live on the moneyline and valuable against the spread.

MacMillan took Raiders +3, saying the market is overly bullish on New England’s projected Drake Maye leap and Mike Vrabel’s debut. He noted Las Vegas quietly fielded a defense that ranked between 10th-15th in most 2024 metrics and upgraded under center with Geno Smith, a "much more consistent quarterback." Until the Patriots prove the hype is warranted, he wants the field goal in his pocket.

Eric Polzin recommended taking Raiders +3, arguing that Las Vegas owns the superior offense while New England is getting inflated because of Drake May’s preseason buzz. He noted Jakobi Meyers stayed despite trade rumors, Geno Smith provides veteran stability, and first-round back Ashton Jeanty should add balance. By comparison, Polzin questioned the Patriots’ pass-catcher depth, pointing out that Kayshon Boutte flashing in camp "is not a good thing" and that Stefon Diggs may not be fully healthy for Week 1. With coaching and defense “a toss-up,” he thinks the full three points are too generous to pass up.

Best Ball Guy said Brock Bowers is an auto-click any time he slips beyond the mid-first round of Eliminator drafts. He argued the rookie could legitimately ‘lap the field’ at tight end because no other Raider profiles as a high-volume option. Bowers’ first three games—Patriots, Chargers, Commanders—feature secondaries that ranked 25th, 30th and 27th in fantasy points allowed to the position last year, giving him a runway to spike weeks right out of the gate. BBG added that Bowers’ raw target projection is higher than Garrett Wilson’s on a per-game basis thanks to Las Vegas’ condensed tree, making the cost break versus wide receivers even more attractive in a format where you only need weekly ceiling.

John Murray said sharp bettors immediately scooped up Las Vegas +3.5 for Week 1 at New England because he believes the opening number overrates the Patriots. Murray pointed to the growing buzz around Drake May, an aggressive free-agent spree, and the hiring of Mike Vrabel as narrative drivers that have already been fully priced into the market. With public perception likely pushing the Pats higher all summer, Murray expects New England to be an early-season ‘sell’ and views +3.5 as clear value, predicting the Raiders can keep the game inside a field goal or win outright.

Evan Abrams countered that the best numbers on this game already belong to New England. He sees a flat –2.5 (-110) in the marketplace and projects the line to close at Patriots –3.5 once summer hype around Drake May, Mike Vrabel and the overhauled roster gains traction. Abrams framed it purely as a numbers play: lock in –2.5 now, bank the likely 1- to 1.5-point of closing-line equity, and, if desired, buy back on Las Vegas at +3.5 just before kickoff. He does not expect the spread to finish under a field goal barring major injury news, making today’s –2.5 the best of the number for Patriots backers.

Chris Raybon said he will only get involved on the Raiders side of the Week 1 matchup if the spread drifts back to +3.5 or better. His logic: this is Drake May’s first real NFL action with an almost entirely new receiving corps (Stefon Diggs and rookie Marvin Williams expected to headline) plus a brand-new coaching staff, offensive line shuffles and Diggs rehabbing an offseason injury. Historically, rookie quarterbacks favored in their debut cover just 43 %, and Raybon doubts May will be fully in sync by September. By contrast, Las Vegas brings a higher “floor” than the market is pricing—veteran head coach Pete Carroll and an experienced Geno Smith should stabilize a roster that otherwise looked headed for a rebuild. Raybon thinks public enthusiasm for New England will push the number north of a field goal, at which point Raiders tickets provide both closing-line value and what he calls “the materially better side.”

Raybon said he is eyeing the Raiders +3.5 (and anything above a field goal) at home against New England because early hype around the Patriots has pushed the line too far. He noted that Week 1 will feature Drake May’s first real action with an almost entirely new receiving corps—Stefon Diggs, Rome Odunze and an incumbent depth piece—leaving timing concerns that rarely gel by September. While Raybon loves New England’s long-term outlook (he bet their season win total months ago), he argued that rookie quarterbacks historically cover only 43 % in their first NFL start when favored. The Raiders retained continuity on offense, upgraded their pass rush with Christian Wilkins and added a proven offensive mind in Kliff Kingsbury, making them closer to league-average than market perception. Raybon expects this line to settle near Patriots –2 once sharper money fades the preseason Patriots buzz, so grabbing +3.5 now offers valuable cushion around the key number of three.