Matty Betss is siding with Randy Brown and is playing the decision prop rather than laying –160 on the money-line. He trusts Dalby’s legendary durability—never KO’d in 11 UFC bouts—and expects the Dane to keep marching forward after a year-plus injury layoff. That forward pressure should gift Brown clean, accurate counters from range, where his 78-inch reach and snappy jab usually win minutes. Matty does not see Dalby completing enough takedowns or landing meaningful damage to steal rounds; instead he projects a repeat of Brown’s typical 80-plus significant strikes landed in space while stuffing the majority of level changes (73% career TDD). Sub is live if Dalby gets rocked, but at +600 Matty prefers the safer decision line (-110 to +120 depending on the book) and will anchor parlays with Fight Goes Distance –140 when it re-opens.

Jim Malaro projected that Randy Brown will cash as a sizeable favorite and, for once, do it violently. Dalby is 40, coming off an injury that left him unable to "support his own weight," and admitted in Danish media that he welcomed the fight’s postponement because of personal issues. Brown owns eight inches of reach, lands 5.1 significant strikes per minute, and mixes a stabbing front kick with a stiff jab that should keep Dalby at range. Dalby’s game—eating shots to force dirty boxing and late takedowns—relies on durability that Malaro believes finally cracks here. He highlighted Dalby absorbing 144 sig-strikes in his last two wins and noted his 38 % striking defense is the worst in the welterweight top-30. Brown, stung by a split-decision loss to Brian Battle, has publicly vowed to avoid judges and already records 0.83 knockdowns per 15 minutes. Malaro recommended Brown KO/TKO (+175) or Brown Rounds 1-2 prop, adding that the money-line is still parlay-able if bettors want a safer piece.

Picking Randy Brown by third-round TKO, The Weasle highlighted the Jamaican’s 6'3" frame and 78-inch reach that pairs with darting footwork, a piston jab and stabbing front kicks. Nicolas Dalby often resets after combinations—deadly against a lanky sniper who can touch him before disengagement. Dalby’s best chance is early leg-kicks into chain-wrestling, yet Brown has shown competent takedown defense since the Brian Battle fight. If Dalby elects to strike at range, The Weasle expects Brown’s straight right to ‘punch through paper’ again and trigger a late finish.

Millz Young laid the −260 on Randy "Rude Boy" Brown, projecting a clean 29-28 or 30-27 decision. He expects Brown’s eight-inch reach edge to let him pop the jab, circle, and style for the Kansas City crowd while Dalby relentlessly hunts the fence clinch. Millz conceded Dalby could bank one round via wall-and-stall or a well-timed level change, but does not see the Dane replicating that for 15 full minutes. Brown’s 64 % takedown defense, improved footwork, and willingness to break clinches with knees convinced Millz to play Brown by decision at plus money rather than the straight moneyline.

Jeff Fox sided with favorite Randy Brown (-225) due to a four-inch height and reach advantage plus six-year youth edge over the 39-year-old Dalby. Fox expects Brown to keep the fight at kicking range where he lands 5.3 significant strikes per minute and owns a 56% defensive rate. While acknowledging Dalby’s legendary durability, Fox believes Brown’s jab-heavy approach and 70% takedown defense will limit Dalby’s clinch entries, leading to a competitive but clear decision win for the Jamaican. Because Dalby has never been stopped, Fox prefers Brown by decision props rather than inside-the-distance odds.

Gumby Vreeland advised taking the +205 underdog price on Nicolas Dalby. He highlighted Dalby’s ‘insane’ gas tank and willingness to crowd opponents, the exact style that gives the long-limbed Randy Brown trouble. Dalby survived 11 takedowns from Renat Fakhrutdinov and still out-landed him in Round 3, showing he can push a frantic pace for 15 minutes. Vreeland also pointed to Dalby’s 6-1 stretch (only loss a razor-thin split) and the fact that he has never been finished in 29 pro fights. With Brown’s historical issues when opponents negate his reach (0-3 when absorbing 5+ clinch strikes per round), Vreeland sees Dalby grinding out a decision or landing late momentum-based volume to sway the judges.

Bisping reluctantly sided with Nicolas Dalby over Randy Brown, stressing that Dalby owns “more ways to win.” Brown enters with 5-inch height and 6-inch reach advantages and lands 4.42 sig. strikes per minute, yet Bisping pointed out his 66 % takedown-defense continues to be his Achilles’ heel, citing the Jack Della Maddalena R1 choke. Dalby averages 1.46 takedowns per 15 and scrambles well enough to survive on bottom when he shoots recklessly. He is also 5-1 since returning to the UFC, showing cardio to push pace late and a willingness to mix clinch knees, body kicks and level changes. Bisping expects Brown to win early exchanges but predicted Dalby drags the Jamaican-born striker into dirty clinch exchanges, scores a couple of takedowns and sneaks a 29-28 decision. Bettors looking for plus money can target Dalby by decision props.

Cody Saftic mirrored Paul’s handicapping but hammered home that Brown’s –250 price tag is dangerous in a matchup tailor-made for Dalby’s stalling tactics. Cody highlighted Brown’s vulnerability to body-lock trips—Zaleski dos Santos secured four takedowns despite 20 % career accuracy—and the Jamaican’s struggles disengaging from the fence. Dalby, 40, owns just 28 % takedown accuracy himself, yet consistently wins minutes by pinning foes to the cage and emptying the gas tank late (the ‘Homer Simpson’ strategy). Still, Saftic trusts Brown’s 6'3" frame and 78-inch reach to rack up touch-and-go strikes in open space and believes his cardio has held up far better than Dalby’s recent opponents. He is playing Brown by decision at plus money and may sprinkle the split-decision variant but warned listeners not to rely on the money line in what he called a “tight and greasy” fight.

Paul Shaughnessy expects a greasy, low-impact slog where Nicholas Dalby stalls with clinch control while Randy Brown snipes from range. Brown’s improved offensive grappling and 78-inch reach should edge the cards, but Paul pointed out that Dalby’s last four UFC wins came via decision, two of them split. Dalby routinely holds opponents against the cage—exactly the position that cost Brown vs Brian Battle and allowed Elizeu Zaleski to rack up four takedowns. Because Brown fights in a full-size cage here (not the Apex) and owns significant height/reach advantages, Shaughnessy still picks him to win, but he hates laying –250 on a bout likely to reach the judges. His preferred wager is “Fight Ends in Split Decision” at +400 (half-unit) with a lean to Brown on the cards.

Kunath called Randy "Rude Boy" Brown a mismatch for Nicolas Dalby, comparing the bout to “coughing baby versus hydrogen bomb.” Brown owns huge measurable edges—4" height, 6" reach, youth, and far superior hand‑speed. Technical edges follow: better footwork, multi‑strike combinations, and calf‑kick diversity that Dalby simply cannot replicate. Dalby’s lone path is to pin Brown against the fence and knee the body for 15 minutes, but Brown’s range weapons and underrrated whizzer defense should keep him off the cage. Brown’s proven gas tank (three straight fights clearing 100 total strikes attempted) lets him maintain pace. Kunath’s advice: take Brown by unanimous decision (-120 prop) and fade Dalby in DFS, as his clinch‑heavy style carries no ceiling if he can’t control.

MMA Guru picked Randy Brown to defeat Nicolas Dalby, predicting either a late‑second‑round TKO or a clean 30‑27 decision. Brown’s 6'3 frame and five‑inch reach advantage blunt Dalby’s trademark head‑kick counters, and Dalby lacks the concussive power that has troubled Brown in past losses. Guru praised Brown’s recent evolution into a strategic round‑manager—citing competitive showings against Chaos Williams and Brian Battle—and said the Jamaican is now comfortable winning on points if the finish is not there. Dalby, nearly 40, remains a durable "fraud checker," but Guru expects him to struggle initiating wrestling exchanges without getting caught in Brown’s clinch knees or guillotine. Recommendation: Brown moneyline, with sprinkles on decision and TKO props.

Bedtime MMA took Randy "Rude Boy" Brown by unanimous decision over Nicolas Dalby. He called Dalby "perfectly acceptable" but noted Brown’s sizable reach, superior foot positioning, and underrated jab that will keep the Dane on the end of long straights and uppercuts all night. Brown’s robbery loss to Brian Battle proves he can hang with faster athletes than Dalby, and Bedtime believes the New Yorker’s rangy boxing—"flicking that jab right in his mush"—will bank at least two rounds without needing high‑variance grappling or knockdowns. He sees no reason to overthink it: Brown out‑points Dalby from range.