Greg Peterson said the best way to attack Sunday’s Rays-Padres matchup is the full-game Over 8 at even money. Peterson projected the total 8.3 runs because Tampa starter Zack Littell has already surrendered eight homers in just 29 innings (2.48 HR/9), a red flag even in pitcher-friendly Petco. While Randy Vasquez has yet to allow a long ball in 13.2 frames, Peterson called that "bound to correct" given his career 1.2 HR/9 and merely average 20% strikeout rate. He still trusts both elite bullpens, but expects damage to be done early: Fernando Tatis Jr. (8 HR, .370 OBP) anchors a deep San Diego order and Yandy Diaz plus breakout Christopher Morel head a resurgent Rays offense that now carries a .330 team OBP. With Littell’s fly-ball profile meeting Padres power and Vasquez unlikely to keep a perfect homer ledger, Peterson believes anything at 8 or lower is a buy on the Over before books inch the number toward his 8.3 projection.

Peterson hung Tampa Bay at +151, implying San Diego should be closer to –151, so he is happy to lay the current –120ish number with the Padres. He admitted Randy Vasquez is volatile—dominant for two starts before being shelled by Detroit—but still prefers him to Zack Littell, who brings a contact-heavy profile and barely seven strikeouts per nine. San Diego’s lineup is rounding into form with Fernando Tatis Jr. healthy, Luis Arraez setting the table and Manny Machado heating up, whereas the Rays are still searching for offense beyond Yandy Diaz and a hobbled Randy Arozarena. With Petco’s spacious dimensions, a ground-ball leaning Vasquez should keep the ball in the yard, and the Padres can deploy Robert Suarez and Wandy Peralta in leverage spots. Peterson would play San Diego to –135 and, with his model spitting out 7.9 runs, is neutral on the flat eight but looks to pair the money-line position with live unders if it creeps to 8½.

Despite dropping the first two games at Petco, Kenny G is "very aggressively" backing San Diego –120 to stop the skid against Tampa Bay. He regards Randy Vasquez’s 3.97 ERA as misleading; outside of a 6-ER blip versus Detroit, the rookie has been lights-out at home and now hands off to MLB’s best bullpen (1.69 ERA). Tampa counters with Zack Littell, winless at 0-5 with a 5.28 ERA and plagued by hard contact—his 1.48 HR/9 and .301 opponent average both sit bottom-10 among qualified starters. Kenny highlighted the under-the-hood Padres metrics that scream positive regression: 4th in batting average, 6th in OBP, 10th in slugging but just 18th in runs. Against Littell, he expects those base-runners finally to cash in. Tampa’s offense is league-average (15th in runs, 7th in average) and the Rays bullpen is solid (3.22 ERA), yet he believes the Padres’ pitching edge and home dominance (12-2 overall, now angered by two straight losses) justify the short favorite price. With both clubs skewing under (TB 13-11-2, SD 15-10-1), Kenny is passing on the total of 8 and focusing on San Diego to win behind a Vasquez rebound and Littell’s continued struggles.

Despite siding with Tampa, the tout also leaned OVER the full-game total because both starters are leaking oil—Littell’s April ERA sits at 6.26, Vasquez at 5.40. Each club owns a top-7 team batting average (TB .252, SD .257) and their last ten head-to-head meetings have hit the over six times (3 unders, 1 push). With warm afternoon conditions projected and both lineups faring far better against right-handed pitching than their recent WRC+ suggests, Cash Out Sports Picks sees enough early damage to push this past the posted number before elite bullpens can lock things down.

Cash Out Sports Picks grabbed Tampa Bay on the money-line, pointing to San Diego’s offense collapsing without Jackson Merrill, Luis Urias and Jake Cronenworth—just a .565 OPS and 66 wRC+ versus right-handers the past ten days. Zach Littell has strung together two strong turns and already limited this roster to 3-for-35 with only one extra-base hit lifetime, while Randy Vasquez owns an April 5.40 ERA and watches the current Rays slash .474 with two doubles and a homer off him. Both bullpens rate top-five in WAR, so the tout expects Tampa to score early, hand it to the ‘pen and squeeze out a tight win at Petco.

JD Bets is going straight back to the NRFI well in Rays-Padres after cashing it the previous night. His spreadsheet shows both clubs ranking top-8 in NRFI hit rate and bottom-10 in first-inning runs over the past month. Projected starters Zach Littell and Adrian Vasquez (both carrying 25%+ strikeout rates and solid outs props) give him enough quality on the mound, while each offense has cooled: Tampa’s collective wOBA versus righties has slid under .300 the last two weeks and San Diego’s ISO has cratered outside the first inning. JD figures any damage these lineups do will come later, so he is betting on a scoreless opening frame at roughly ‑115.

Along with their 4-3 score prediction, Data Skrive advised betting Under 8 runs. The model leans on several run-suppression trends: the Padres have played under the total in eight of their last 10, averaging just 2.1 runs per game with a 2.90 team ERA over that stretch. Tampa Bay games have stayed under in seven of their last 10 as the Rays offense has sputtered to 3.3 runs per night and a modest five homers in that window. Both bullpens are in strong form—Padres relievers sport a combined 9.1 K/9 over the last 10, while Rays arms carry a 3.39 ERA—and PETCO Park historically knocks down right-center power (park factor 0.87 for HR). All told, the math and recent performance make the Under 8 a worthwhile play.

Data Skrive projected a 4–3 San Diego victory and recommended laying the short –115 moneyline with the Padres. Their model gives San Diego a 59% win probability—roughly a 5.5-point edge over the implied 53.5% odds. The Padres have thrived in this role all year, going 11-4 (73.3%) when favored and 10-4 specifically when listed at –115 or shorter. Tampa Bay has been far less reliable as a dog, winning only 45.5% of those games (5-6 when priced –104 or longer). Recent form supports the play: despite a 3-7 record over their last 10, the Padres’ staff owns a sparkling 2.90 ERA and 9.1 K/9 in that span, while the Rays are managing just 3.3 runs per game. With Fernando Tatis Jr. slashing .347/.392/.653 and carrying a two-game hit streak, Data Skrive believes San Diego’s modest offense plus elite pitching is enough to cash the moneyline ticket at home.

Zola recommended deploying Tampa Bay’s left-handed bats, highlighting Jonathan Aranda (and Brandon Lowe) against Padres rookie righty Randy Vasquez in Petco Park. Vasquez has allowed a .360 wOBA and 1.5 HR/9 to left-handed hitters in limited big-league work, while Aranda owns a career .370 OBP and .200 ISO versus righties. Even though Petco suppresses right-handed power, it plays neutral for lefties, giving Aranda enough park factor plus platoon edge to warrant a Sunday stream.

Peterson took Padres –115 and Over 8. Zack Littell’s home-run issues (8 HR, 5.28 ERA, 5.89 FIP in five starts) set the table for San Diego. Randy Vasquez isn’t missing many bats (3.8 K/9) but has allowed 2 ER or fewer in four of five and is protected by a Padres bullpen that leads MLB with a 1.76 ERA. Peterson’s numbers: Padres –151, total 8.3, giving multiple angles of value.

Peterson priced San Diego at –154 and grabbed the money line along with Over 7 runs (he made the total 7.2) in Dylan Cease vs. Ryan Pepiot. He argued Cease’s ugly 6.04 ERA hides a sparkling 2.62 FIP, 10.5 K/9 and just two homers allowed; poor BABIP luck and one meltdown versus Sacramento are doing the damage. Pepiot is the shakier arm despite a 3-walks-per-nine profile—eight homers surrendered in 28 innings and a career road HR/9 nearly 40 % higher than at the Trop give San Diego clear power upside even with injuries (Jackson Merrill, Luis Arraez) thinning the order. Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. remain healthy middle-of-the-order threats, while the Rays’ young core (Jonathan Aranda, Junior Caminero, Jake Mangum) has quietly produced a .300-plus collective average, helping push the game over a strangely key number of seven. Tampa’s bullpen still features Pete Fairbanks and Mason Montgomery but has been inconsistent early; conversely, Cease is backed by a steadier Padres pen led by Robert Suarez and Wandy Peralta. Peterson will not lay the run line in what he expects to be a tight contest, but he is comfortable swallowing chalk on the straight ML and riding a discounted Over 7.

Brad Francis is selling Dylan Cease’s punch-out upside, betting Under 6.5 Ks. Cease has failed to clear that number in three of his first five starts, and Francis believes the underlying form backs another short outing: command issues have elevated his pitch counts, and opponents are chasing less frequently than they did during his White Sox peak. With the strikeout prop still posted at 6.5, Francis sees value in betting against a rebound.

He also fired on the OVER in Rays-Padres. Dylan Cease has struggled versus Tampa (5.40 ERA) and Ryan Pepiot sports a 4.82 ERA with a history of getting torched by elite offenses. Both pens threw heavy innings in the opener, leaving high-leverage arms unavailable. With Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado and company anxious to break out, plus a Rays lineup that makes contact and runs, the tout expects traffic on the bases and plenty of crooked numbers. He projects 9-10 total runs, clearing most market totals comfortably.

Cash Out Sports Picks grabbed Tampa Bay on the money-line despite the Rays being road underdogs. San Diego has been shut out in back-to-back games and has produced only two total runs over its last three. Dylan Cease owns a gaudy 5.40 ERA through six career starts against Tampa, and the Friars’ overworked bullpen offers little safety net. Ryan Pepiot has been inconsistent, but the Rays arrive on a three-game win streak and have cashed tickets in four straight outings when getting plus money. With the Padres’ offense frozen and Tampa’s bullpen fresh, the tout believes the Rays are the far safer side.

Reichel is betting Padres –1.5 at +150, citing San Diego’s outrageous 12-1 record at Petco Park and a clear edge on both sides of the ball. Dodgers cast-off Pepiot has unraveled—12 earned runs over his last three starts, 4.82 season ERA—while Dylan Cease, though still inconsistent, has allowed just four earned across his previous two outings. Reichel noted Tampa Bay is only 2-4 on the road after playing 19 of its first 25 at home, and their young lineup has struggled to string rallies together. Given San Diego’s talent gap and a rested bullpen following Thursday’s off-day, he prefers the generous run-line price to a –150 moneyline.

Mike Maher called Chandler Simpson "basically free speed" and said his roster percentage should be "north of 90%." Simpson has already swiped two bags in his first four games and batted leadoff twice for Tampa Bay, giving him a clear path to volume. Statcast grades him as "the fastest guy in the world," and Maher expects 40-plus steal pacing if he sticks atop the order. While there is zero power upside, Simpson’s contact skills should keep his average respectable—he projects for a .280-plus batting average thanks to elite sprint speed and high BABIP profile. Available in roughly two-thirds of Yahoo leagues and nearly 80% of ESPN formats, Simpson is a must-add for anyone chasing steals or trying to climb roto standings quickly.

Erick Halterman said Chandler Simpson should be added immediately anywhere you need steals or batting-average help. Simpson swiped 104 bases last season and 94 the year before, all while posting single-digit strike-out rates that separate him from past no-power speedsters like Esteury Ruiz, Mallex Smith, and Billy Hamilton (who all hovered in the 15–20 % K-range). Halterman expects Simpson to hit for a useful average by legging out infield singles, projects plenty of runs atop Tampa’s lineup, and even recommends grabbing him in trade-friendly leagues just to flip to the manager who really needs speed. The only risk he flagged is a potential demotion when Josh Lowe returns in May, but the upside comp he used was Juan Pierre—an outfielder who could go a whole year without homering yet still finish as an elite fantasy asset thanks to 60-plus steals.

Kenny G called San Diego a fair bet at –150 with Michael King (3-0, 2.57 ERA) on the bump. The Padres have won four of King’s five starts and support him with MLB’s best bullpen (1.76 ERA). Tampa Bay counters with Shane Baz, who owns a solid 3.22 ERA but just labored against the Yankees. The Rays arrive after a late game in Arizona and are only 1-4 on the road, while San Diego is an eye-popping 12-1 at Petco Park. Tampa’s lineup has cooled (7-1-0 runs last three) and the Friars’ pen should slam the door if King exits with a lead. Add the light West-coast travel edge and Kenny feels the Pads should be closer to –170, so he is comfortable laying up to –160 here.

Ceraulo suggested attacking Michael King’s strikeout prop Over 6.5 at –115. King has punched out 31 batters in five starts and has hit the 7-K mark in three of his last four, including both of his Petco Park outings (8 Ks in a complete game vs Colorado and 11 Ks in five innings vs Cleveland). Tampa ranks in the league’s bottom half in contact rate and must face King without having to contend with San Diego’s injury-riddled offense on the other side, making the K prop a cleaner path. The handicap hinges on King’s home splits and recent momentum: a 29 % K rate at Petco and an average of 9.8 Ks per nine there. While Ceraulo admitted he “doesn’t love” laying juice on the Padres’ money line given their battered lineup, he sees value in needing only seven strikeouts from King at near-even money.

Lindquist circled a Fernando Tatis Jr. home-run prop (waiting for confirmed lineup and best price at FanDuel) because Rockies right-hander Cal Quantrill is surrendering a 10.9% barrel rate and 10.8° average launch angle in a park that still offers carry to left-center. Tatis already owns a 50% hard-hit rate and 101.5 mph average HR exit velocity in 2024, and his power plays up against Quantrill’s sinker that averages just 92 mph. With San Diego implied around five runs and Tatis batting leadoff, Lindquist believes anything north of +400 is value on a long-ball, especially given Quantrill’s career .472 expected slugging to right-handed bats.