Andy Lack labeled Ricky Castillo—referred to as "Ricky Katz"—his favorite sub-$7K DFS flier. Castillo popped for a T18 at TPC Craig Ranch thanks to a 314-yard driving average and +4.2 strokes gained on approaches over 175 yards. Lack blamed a Sunday 77 at Colonial for suppressing Castillo’s salary and projected ownership this week. With TPC Toronto’s wide corridors and 40% of approaches coming from 200+ yards, he expects Castillo’s combination of length and long-iron control to create eagle chances on the two true par-5s and plenty of mid-iron looks on the six 480-plus-yard par-4s. Lack is willing to live with Castillo’s streaky putter, arguing that flat bent/Poa surfaces level the playing field and make tee-to-green upside paramount.

Among the trio priced just behind Rory, Andy Lack said Ludvig Aberg is the only one he would consider at 16-1 to 20-1. The Swede averages 317 yards off the tee (7th on Tour) and is gaining a robust 0.38 strokes per round on 200-225-yard approaches, giving him separation tools Corey Connors and Shane Lowry lack. Aberg’s tee-to-green profile mirrors past winners at comparable flat, driver-heavy setups such as Craig Ranch and Vedanta. Lack conceded he may still pass on Aberg in outright markets because of the short number, but in match-ups and DFS he is firmly siding with the rookie over Connors and Lowry, projecting Aberg to gain over a stroke on the field per round off the tee alone.

Andy Lack pegged Taylor Pendrith as his early lean to win the Canadian Open, calling TPC Toronto a "way better" layout for the Ontario native than last year’s site. Pendrith carries the ball 311 yards on average, ranks 18th on Tour in strokes-gained off the tee, and gains 0.25 strokes per round on approaches from 200+ yards—exactly the statistical profile Lack’s model flags. The tout highlighted Pendrith’s proven form on comparable ‘driver-wedge or long-iron’ tracks: a win at TPC Craig Ranch, a top-10 at Quail Hollow, and a solid week in progress at Muirfield Village. With 37-yard-wide fairways inviting driver on nearly every hole and soft, flat greens diminishing short-game importance, Lack believes Pendrith can leverage home-crowd energy and power to become the second straight Canadian champion. He plans to fire an outright ticket in the 35-40/1 range and anchor balanced DFS builds around Pendy.

Andy Lack advised bettors to skip Shane Lowry despite his stellar ball-striking at Valhalla. Lowry’s 295-yard average carry distance and neutral strokes-gained numbers beyond 200 yards do not match the ‘bomb-and-gouge’ blueprint Lack’s course breakdown demands. He emphasized that 39% of approaches will come from 200+ yards and noted that Lowry loses 0.11 strokes per round on that distance bucket this season. With oversized, flat bent/Poa greens reducing putting volatility, Lack expects driving distance and long-iron proximity to be the primary separators—areas where Lowry grades only average. At a projected 18-1 to 22-1 outright price, Lack called the Irishman “all name value, no course fit” and is holding his fire until Lowry reaches a venue that rewards wedge play and scrambling.

Andy Lack said he is passing on Corey Conners at 16-25/1 in outright markets because TPC Toronto neutralizes the Canadian’s usual edge. While Conners is an elite fairway finder, Lack stressed that this week is all about raw power off the tee and 200-plus-yard approach play. Conners averages just 299 yards in carry distance (outside the Tour’s top third) and gains only 0.04 strokes per round on approaches from 200-225 yards, well behind the ‘long-iron merchants’ Lack expects to separate. With six par-4s playing 480+ yards and two converted par-5s stretched past 515, Lack believes Conners will be forced to hit longer clubs into greens than his peers, limiting birdie chances. He views the Canadian as a better top-20 candidate than an outright bet and recommended allocating capital elsewhere in the same odds band.

Andy Lack said Robert "Bobby Mac" MacIntyre could realistically defend his Canadian Open title because TPC Toronto accentuates his strengths even more than last year’s venue. MacIntyre sits 17th on Tour in strokes-gained total on layouts exceeding 7,400 yards and gains 0.31 strokes per round on approaches from 175-225 yards—both key buckets for this week’s 7,435-yard par-70. Lack noted that MacIntyre’s high launch left-to-right draw matches the preferred shot shape on risk-reward holes 1 and 3, giving him a chance to cut doglegs and reach the 542-yard opening par-5 in two. With soft, flat greens expected because of Thursday rain, MacIntyre’s streaky putter should have ample opportunity to heat up, mirroring Justin Rose and Billy Horschel’s leaderboard spikes at Valhalla. Lack advised keeping MacIntyre on outright cards (50-1 in some books) and treating him as a leverage DFS play in the sub-10% ownership range.

Andy Lack highlighted Thomas Detry as a "phenomenal" course fit after the Belgian’s 4th-place finish at the long-iron heavy PGA Championship at Valhalla. Detry ranks top-20 on Tour this season in strokes-gained off-the-tee and is gaining 0.26 shots per round on approaches from 200-plus yards—exactly the two buckets Lack believes will decide this week. With TPC Toronto offering 37-yard fairways and nearly 40% of approaches beyond 200 yards, Lack expects Detry’s combination of 305-yard average carry distance and reliable mid-to-long-iron play to give him multiple eagle looks on the two reachable par-5s and scoring chances on the six 480-plus-yard par-4s. He recommended Detry for outright tickets (40-1 range in early markets) and as a core DFS option in the balanced $8K tier that lets lineups avoid fragile sub-7K punts.

Andy Lack said this week’s venue, TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley, is tailor-made for bombers and singled out Rory McIlroy as the main beneficiary. Six of the 12 par-4s stretch beyond 480 yards, the course has been converted to a par-70 by turning two reachable par-5s into 515-plus-yard par-4s, and the 3.75-inch Kentucky bluegrass rough creates a real advantage for anyone hitting mid- to long-irons from the fairway instead of the cabbage. With 37-yard-wide fairways allowing drivers on virtually every hole and massive, flat bent/Poa greens mitigating the need for elite putting, Lack expects McIlroy’s length and high-end long-iron play to separate. He called the layout the "best Canadian Open course for Rory" and warned that the Northern Irishman will be "damn tough to beat," making him a priority in outright betting markets and a cornerstone DFS spend-up despite likely chalky ownership.

Patrick McDonald warned bettors off Ludwig Aberg, noting the Swede added the Canadian Open only because his form has cratered. McDonald highlighted across-the-board regression: negative strokes gained in approach and off-the-tee in four of his last five non-major starts, short-game still middling, and putting trending down. Even the trademark driver that routinely touches 330 yards has been slipping, culminating in a poor driving performance at Valhalla. While Aberg’s talent keeps his ceiling high, McDonald sees no statistical evidence of an imminent bounce-back and will wait until the irons and driver turn before investing again.

Jason Sobel advised fading Rory McIlroy despite the Northern Irishman likely opening as a short favorite. Sobel cited a month of negative headlines after the Masters win and, more importantly, uncharacteristically poor driving in all three starts since Augusta. McIlroy’s strokes-gained off-the-tee numbers have slipped into the red, a troubling trend with TPC Toronto’s four-inch rough and demanding finishing stretch. With the market still pricing Rory on reputation, Sobel prefers to allocate bankroll elsewhere until the ball-striking rebounds.

Patrick McDonald said Sam Burns should be on bettors’ short lists for TPC Toronto. McDonald noted that the new 7,400-yard par-70 has almost four-inch rough and ranks third-fewest in bunkers on Tour, making total-driving paramount. Burns, who already ranked top-20 last season in both driving distance and strokes-gained off-the-tee, showed signs of heating up with a low Friday round at Colonial and a week of clean ball-striking. McDonald expects the beefy setup to accentuate Burns’ biggest edge—long, accurate tee shots—and thinks early prices will be attractive before the market fully bakes in the course fit.

Pat Mayo advised passing on Max Homa in both outrights and single-entry DFS because sportsbooks continue to post him in the 35-to-40-1 neighborhood despite shaky form. Mayo noted that Homa can still flash one elite round, but he rarely strings four together; at the Memorial he followed a promising opening 69 with a second-round 79 (+7) that torpedoed any chance to contend. Until Homa proves he can sustain ball-striking for an entire week, Mayo views the price as pure name tax and recommends reallocating exposure to similarly priced players with stronger recent ceiling performances.

Pat Mayo said he will fire an outright ticket on Luke Clanton the moment books hang anything higher than 45-to-1. Mayo called the Florida State phenom a “real wild card,” predicting public steam will drive the number down once bettors digest how TPC Toronto rewards fearless bombers and hot iron play—a skillset Clanton showcased while contending in multiple PGA Tour starts this spring. Because he expects the odds to shorten quickly, Mayo urged listeners to shop opening lines Monday morning and grab the inflated price before it disappears. DFS players looking for capped upside in the mid-$7k range can leverage the same ceiling, but Mayo’s primary recommendation is a pre-steam outright sprinkle at 45-1 or better.

Pat Mayo warned bettors not to chase Davis Riley if books hang a 50-1 outright. While Riley leads the field in 175-225-yard proximity over the past 12 rounds, Mayo compared his trajectory to Michael Kim’s earlier in the season—red-hot run followed by regression to baseline. Riley missed the cut at Colonial and often cools quickly once the initial surge fades. Mayo prefers long-shot Ricky Castillo (projected 150-1) who owns similar ball-striking metrics but a depressed price due to cold putting. Unless Riley drifts into triple-digit territory, Mayo believes there’s little value in an outright or DFS ownership that will likely be inflated by recent form.

Mayo labeled Cameron Champ a pure price-sensitive flyer. Champ sits sixth in his short-term model, powered by +1.2 strokes gained off the tee and improved 200-plus-yard proximity over the last 12 rounds. That profile meshes with TPC Toronto’s bomber-friendly par-4s and two reachable par-5s. The catch: Champ’s approach play is still volatile and the market sometimes prices him in the 70-1 range on name value alone. Mayo said he would have no interest at 70-1 but would gladly sprinkle outrights, first-round leader tickets, and GPP DFS exposure if books open closer to 300-1, where the upside finally justifies the risk.

Pat Mayo’s 12-round build spit Antoine Rozner out as the top overall play despite extremely long projected odds. Rozner has gained on both approach and off the tee in three straight worldwide starts and is 8-for-8 hitting greens from 175-225 yards—Mayo’s key proximity bucket because of TPC Toronto’s six 480-plus par-4s. Although only 53rd in driving distance, Rozner ranks top-20 in strokes gained on par-4s of 450-500 yards thanks to that long-iron precision. The putter is finally positive after a miserable stretch; Mayo said Rozner merely needs to avoid the blow-up minus-4 weeks to contend. At triple-digit outright prices and a sub-$7k DraftKings salary, Mayo likes him for outrights, top-20s, and as a salary-saver in balanced DFS builds.

Pat Mayo identified Taylor Pendrith as the Canadian most likely to contend at TPC Toronto and a priority outright/DFS play. Pendrith ranks 30th in driving distance and 12th in strokes-gained off the tee over the past 24 rounds, an ideal blend for a 7,400-yard par-70 featuring six par-4s longer than 480 yards and only two par-5s. Through three rounds at the Memorial he sat T18 while gaining both off the tee (+1.8) and on approach (+0.8) but hemorrhaging strokes with the putter, a profile Mayo likes to buy before a potential spike. He contrasted Pendrith’s ceiling with Corey Conners—better long-iron numbers but less raw power—and plans to leverage Pendrith against the inevitable Rory-heavy DFS chalk.

Pat Mayo said he will fade Rory McIlroy in outright markets if sportsbooks hang a number in the +250 to +300 range. Mayo acknowledged TPC Toronto is almost tailor-made for Rory’s driver and that he has already won two of the last four Canadian Opens, but pointed to a month-long iron malaise. McIlroy’s approach play was mediocre at the PGA Championship and merely average at the Truist Atlanta signature event, where nearly all of his strokes gained came from the driver and putter. Mayo expects McIlroy to treat the week as a tune-up before the U.S. Open, making the short price an unnecessary risk. His advice: keep bankroll free for live bets if the irons suddenly pop or look elsewhere for pre-tournament outrights and DFS builds.

Mayo called TPC Toronto a "very nice Ryan Fox course" thanks to the Kiwi’s combination of raw distance and high-ball trajectory with long irons. Fox ranks 6th in this field in strokes-gained off the tee over his past 50 rounds and is top-10 in GIR percentage from 200+ yards—exactly the window Mayo weighted at 9% in his model. The venue’s minimal penalty fescue and only three water hazards allow Fox to lean on his power-fade without the big-number risk that plagued him at tree-lined Colonial. Mayo reminded listeners that Fox already won an alternate-field event this spring and held the 36-hole lead at the PGA Championship before slipping to T28, evidence of ceiling. At 45-1 in outright markets and sub-$8k on DraftKings, Mayo likes Fox as a core betting piece and a leverage play against the Rory-centric builds he expects to dominate lineups.

Pat Mayo singled out Alejandro "Toasty" Tosti as a classic course-fit play. FantasyNational’s rolling report shows Tosti gaining 5.6 yards over field average in driving distance across his last four measured rounds—an uptick from his long-term baseline. Mayo chalked up the missed cut at Colonial to a "less-than-driver" layout and expects the Argentine to air it out on the 7,400-yard, two-par-5 setup. Tosti ranks 11th in weighted par-4 scoring from 450-500 yards over his past 36 rounds and is neutral with the putter on bent/poa surfaces. Given TPC Toronto’s forgiving rough and only three water hazards, Mayo believes Tosti’s aggression will be rewarded. He recommends exposure in first-round leader markets (80-1+) and volatile DFS tournaments where eagle potential on the drivable 6th and reachable 18th can swing leaderboards.

Mayo’s custom FantasyNational build spit Matti Schmid out fifth overall, ahead of several bigger names. Schmid is 20th in driving distance in this field and has gained strokes on approach in five straight events, ranking 4th over the past 24 rounds. Mayo down-weighted Schmid’s career-worst surface (Bermuda) and noted that the German gained a gaudy 8.6 strokes putting at Colonial—an outlier that explains his T8 finish there. Even if the putter regresses to neutral on bent/poa, Schmid’s combination of length and long-iron proficiency (top-15 from 200+ yards) fits the six 480-plus par-4s at TPC Toronto. Mayo sees Schmid as under-priced in DFS ($7,200 range) and a live top-20/top-10 bet at +450 and +900 respectively.

Pat Mayo flagged Ricky Castillo as a deep-field dart worth sprinkling in outrights and GPP DFS builds. Castillo ranks top-10 in the field in strokes-gained approach over his past 24 rounds and grades out well in Mayo’s model for both 175-to-200 and 200-plus proximity—crucial buckets on a 7,389-yard par-70 with six par-4s longer than 480 yards. His driver is hardly a weakness (Mayo noted Castillo’s off-the-tee strokes gained are "really good"), and short-game numbers have quietly improved with positive around-the-green figures in three of his last four starts. The red flag is putting, where he loses 0.35 strokes per round on Bermuda. Mayo thinks the bent/poa mix at TPC Toronto could bring him back to neutral since Castillo has no negative sample on those surfaces. If the flat stick is merely average, Mayo believes the ball-striking spike gives Castillo top-20 and FRL equity at 150-1 or longer.

Pat Mayo argued that TPC Toronto is effectively tailor-made for Rory McIlroy and labeled him a must-have anchor in outrights and high-stakes DFS. Mayo echoed earlier length arguments—six 480-plus par-4s, only two par-5s, and a 7,400-yard par-70—but added that McIlroy’s elite scrambling keeps him live even if the course turns into the windy, low-GIR grind that torched the PGA Tour Americas field last September. He also pointed out McIlroy’s two wins in the last five Canadian Opens and the tournament’s marketing push that features Rory alongside Canadian stars in every advertisement, suggesting extra motivation and comfort. Mayo’s takeaway: "Bombers in calm, scramblers in wind—Rory does both, so he is immune to the forecast and worth the short price."

Eric Patterson said TPC Toronto’s scorecard quietly tilts toward elite drivers such as Rory McIlroy and Ludvig Aberg. The course stretches to 7,400 yards as a par-70, with six par 4s measuring 480-plus yards and four eclipsing 500. Despite wide fairways and oversized greens, Patterson noted that length off the tee will allow the tour’s longest players to hit higher-lofted approach shots into those massive putting surfaces and separate from the field. He suggested leaning on McIlroy in outrights, first-round leader bets, and high-ceiling DFS builds, adding that the Northern Irishman has already won two of the last five Canadian Opens on similarly spacious layouts. Patterson framed the track as a “big ballpark” where 320-yard carry numbers translate into legitimate scoring chances that mid-pack hitters simply will not generate.