Lonte Smith doubled down on Philadelphia, making their team total Over his favorite play and endorsing the –1.5 run line as well. Sanchez owns a 1.63 ERA over his last eight starts, allowing two earned or fewer in every one and never more than two runs at Citizens Bank Park all season. Boston’s pen is in danger of working back-to-back heavy nights, and Pivetta’s abbreviated outings won’t help. With the Phillies desperate after losing three straight series and averaging more than five runs per home game, Lonte expects their bats to explode again.

Malcom Bamford laid –1.5 with the Phillies because Cristopher Sanchez has turned into a metronome: three straight outings of 7 IP/1 ER and eight consecutive quality starts overall. During his last five, Philadelphia has surrendered 1-2-1-3-1 runs, so the pen is fresh. Meanwhile, Nick “Dick” Pivetta rarely survives the fourth, and Boston’s bullpen could be stretched after Walker Buehler’s short outing the night before. Philly is averaging 5.2 runs per game at home over its last seven, making a multi-run win the most logical outcome.

Lindquist plans to attack Cristopher Sanchez OVER 6.5 strikeouts at plus money when lines open. Sanchez carries a 26% strikeout rate, 2.81 xwOBA, and .338 expected slugging, and Boston projects far more whiffs versus southpaws because several of its best bats—Masataka Yoshida, Jarren Duran, Marcello Mayer—either sit or lose platoon advantage. Boston’s 23.8% K-rate against lefties jumps to 26% when the lineup skews right-handed, which Lindquist expects to happen here. He wants to monitor Yoshida’s status and pounce before sharper bettors move the price, but he said a 7.2 projection makes anything better than −110 a clear bet.

Cash Out Sports Picks grabbed the Phillies money line thanks to Cristopher Sanchez’s torrid run—nine straight starts allowing two runs or fewer and just one earned in each of his last five. Boston’s post-break offense cooled dramatically in Chicago, and their starter ‘Fits’ has been merely serviceable. With Philadelphia boasting a lineup capable of crooked innings, the tout believes Sanchez will quiet the Red Sox while the home bats supply enough support.

Matt Perrault advised betting the Red Sox team total over 3.5 runs at –104. He noted Boston leads MLB in batting average (.270) and RBIs (155) versus left-handed pitching, six more RBIs than the Yankees and 22 more than the Tigers. They face Phillies southpaw Christopher Sanchez, who is 8-2 with a 2.50 ERA (2.96 at home) but is making his first post-All-Star-break start and rarely works deep. Philadelphia burned four relievers in Monday’s 10-inning game, so several high-leverage bullpen arms could be unavailable. Perrault expects Boston to plate two runs off Sanchez and at least two more against a potentially taxed bullpen, clearing the 3.5 mark.

Kenny G advised eating the juice on Philadelphia at –210 because he expects Zack Wheeler to steam-roll Boston. Wheeler owns a 9-3 record with a 2.36 ERA and is coming off an uncharacteristic four-run stumble against San Diego; Kenny framed that as the perfect buy-low spot, citing Wheeler’s 2.88 xFIP and 29% strikeout rate at Citizens Bank Park this season. On the flip side, Walker Buehler has been a gas can in his first season with Boston—6.12 ERA, .302 opponent average—and has yielded 13 hits and six earned over his last 12 innings despite facing below-average Washington and Tampa lineups. Boston’s bats have cooled (6-0-1-4-1 runs in the last five), and the Sox are just 22-27 on the road. Philadelphia is 31-18 at home, and even with a shaky 4.30 bullpen ERA, Kenny believes a seven-inning Wheeler gem masks that weakness. He called Phillies –210 a potential “lock of the day” if the number doesn’t balloon past –225.

Cash Out Sports Picks labeled the Phillies moneyline a must-play behind Zack Wheeler. Wheeler sports a 2.36 ERA, 0.86 WHIP overall and a 1.91 ERA with a .164 opponent average at Citizens Bank Park (66 IP). Over his last 46 innings he’s yielded just 27 hits and 7 ER. Boston counters with Walker Buehler’s blown-up 6.12 ERA (8.66 on the road, .342 BAA). The tout called it a massive mound mismatch and expects Philly to cruise.

Dylan Rockford is happy to lay –1.5 with Philadelphia, making them a –215 favorite on his numbers. Wheeler has been nearly untouchable in Philly (1.91 ERA, 6-1, opponents hitting .164) and enjoys an even longer rest coming out of the break. Rockford expects Boston’s recent offensive slump to continue— the Sox managed just one combined run Friday/Saturday and have struggled to string hits together since the All-Star Game. On the other side, he projects Bueller to allow at least four earned runs given his 8+ road ERA and month-long fade leading into the layoff. Add Wheeler’s strikeout upside and a deep Philadelphia lineup, and Rockford sees the short run-line price as the cleanest way to attack the matchup.

Malcom Bamford skipped the big moneyline and attacked a Phillies team-total over, pointing to Walker Bueller’s brutal road numbers (8-plus ERA away from Fenway) and six-week skid that saw his June/July ERA balloon north of 6.00. Philadelphia’s bats have already flashed, hanging 14 combined runs on Friday and Saturday, and they stay at hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park. Bueller hasn’t toed the rubber since July 10, so rust is an added concern. Bamford trusts Zack Wheeler to keep Boston quiet (1.91 ERA, 6-1 record, .164 BAA at home) and expects the Phillies to do most of the scoring. He recommended isolating a Phils team total rather than sweating the big price tag.

Eric Lindquist recommended building a strike-out ladder on Zack Wheeler when books open. He expects the opening line around 7.5 (+ money) and is willing to push tickets to 8.5 and 9.5. Wheeler has vaulted to NL Cy Young favoritism thanks to both volume and dominance, and Lindquist noted that Boston’s projected top three (Jarren Duran, Roman Anthony, Masataka Yoshida) still offers enough swing-and-miss despite Yoshida’s low K-rate. The Red Sox own only a 103 wRC+ versus right-handers and sit middle-of-the-pack in K-rate since the break. With Wheeler’s innings security and 29.4 % season-long strike-out rate, Lindquist sees double-digit Ks well within range.

B Wade is fading Walker Buehler’s strikeout prop, taking under 4.5 Ks. Buehler has cleared this number in only 4 of 16 starts and just once in eight road outings. Away from Fenway he’s averaging a mere three strikeouts per game. Wade noted the Phillies can chase pitchers early—if their bats heat up, Buehler may not even see the fourth inning. Given the poor road K-rate and matchup risk, Wade likes the under despite the line sitting around –222 in traditional odds.

B Wade said Zack Wheeler is a strong bet to clear 7.5 strikeouts Monday. Wheeler is averaging just above eight punch-outs per start on the season and has eclipsed this line in 12 of 19 outings. Wade highlighted Wheeler’s home dominance: 8.8 K per game with four straight overs in Citizens Bank Park. After failing to reach eight K’s in San Diego last time out (only six), Wheeler has historically responded—bouncing back in four of six similar spots this year. The matchup sweetens the play: Boston owns MLB’s 3rd-highest strikeout rate (only the Angels and Rockies whiff more) at roughly nine per game. All of that led Wade to lock in the over.