Matt Perrault recommended betting the Yankees team total Over 4.5 runs on Sunday Night Baseball. He noted Boston’s pitching staff owns a first-inning ERA north of 12, which would be the worst in MLB history if the season ended today. Rookie right-hander Hunter Dobbins draws the start with a 4.50 road ERA (7 ER in 14 IP) and shaky outings at Milwaukee (2 ER in 3 IP) and Detroit (5 ER in 5 IP) already on his resume. Even if Dobbins survives, Perrault expects Boston’s overworked bullpen to cough up runs. New York has plated 9 and 7 runs in the first two games of the series, is 21-11 at Yankee Stadium, and 16-7 straight up after a loss, underscoring how quickly the lineup bounces back. With Carlos Rodon sporting a 2.38 ERA and .154 opponent average at home, Perrault prefers isolating the Yankees offense rather than laying the expensive moneyline or volatile run line, calling Over 4.5 their clearest path to profit.

Matt Perrault leaned Yankees moneyline for Sunday Night Baseball, citing multiple edges. New York is 16-7 directly after a loss and owns a 21-11 record at Yankee Stadium. Carlos Rodon enters 8-3 with a 2.49 ERA overall and a 2.38 ERA in the Bronx, holding opponents to a .154 average over 41.2 home innings. Boston counters with rookie Hunter Dobbins, and Perrault called the Red Sox staff "garbage" after they surrendered seven runs Saturday. With the Sox’ bullpen exhausted and Trevor Story unlikely to repeat a five-RBI outburst, he doubts Boston’s offense can support Dobbins against a Yankees lineup that struck out Aaron Judge three times Saturday and is "due" for a rebound.

For Sunday Night Baseball Martin sees only one path: Yankees on the –1 run-line to mitigate what will be a heavy money-line. Carlos Rodon has been his ‘golden goose,’ riding an 8-3 record and seven straight victories while allowing just two earned runs total across his last four outings. New York also owns MLB’s top overall offensive metrics and a 20-10 record in the Bronx. Boston counters with 25-year-old rookie Dobbins (4.00 ERA) making a high-pressure start under the lights, a spot Martin deems a big ask. All factors—Rodon’s form, Yankee Stadium edge, and lineup disparity—steer him toward laying the run to grab a more digestible price.

Mark’s fourth official play is Yankees –110 at home against Boston. He acknowledged Garrett Crochet’s sparkling 1.90 ERA but emphasized that the Red Sox are inexplicably 0-6 in Crochet’s last six starts. New York owns one of the league’s best wRC+ marks versus left-handed pitching and just got Aaron Judge back in the lineup. Between that platoon edge and Yankee Stadium’s right-field porch, Mark expects the Bombers’ bats to out-slug Boston in what he projects as a lower-scoring game than Friday’s 15-run shootout.