Guy Boston Sports likes Cincinnati’s team total over against Arizona spot-starter Nabil Crismatt. Crismatt has only one 2025 start (5 IP, 1 ER in Coors) and just two career starts overall, so the tout questions his ability to turn a lineup over. BallparkPal shows a +10 % run-environment bump at Great American Ball Park, another green light for runs. Although the Reds are notoriously streaky—he dubbed them the “Cincinnati roller-coasters”—their last ten games feature eight outings of five or more runs. He expects Andrew Abbott to provide serviceable pitching on the Cincinnati side while the offense capitalizes, highlighting Miguel Andujar and Noelvi Marte as prop considerations.

Kenny G fired on Cincinnati –130, underscoring Andrew Abbott’s 8-3 record and sparkling 2.28 ERA. The left-hander just blanked Milwaukee over seven innings with seven strikeouts and, crucially, no walks—continuing a two-start stretch with zero free passes. Kenny expects Abbott to neutralize an Arizona lineup that has slipped to league-average since the trade deadline. On the other side, Nabil Crismatt is making only his second start of the season, and the Diamondbacks’ bullpen owns one of MLB’s worst ERAs (4.90). Cincinnati’s relief corps has steadied lately, and Kenny believes a loss in game one would only sharpen the Reds’ focus, elevating this play to near ‘lock of the day’ status.

Lindquist recommended betting Corbin Carroll to go deep at +255 or better against Zach Littell. He called Littell’s biggest weakness "tons of lefty power" and has repeatedly profited from Carroll—his second-most profitable long-ball pick of the year. The Diamondbacks’ rookie owns double-digit barrels off right-handers, and the Rays’ opener/long-relief setup has allowed a .192 ISO to left-handed bats since July 1. If books hang the usual +255 number, Lindquist wants it on his home-run card.