Kenny G recommended taking Cincinnati at –105 to finish off a three-game sweep. He trusts Nick Lodolo (3.21 ERA) far more than Cleveland’s inconsistent Logan Allen (4.42 ERA and bouncing between rotation and bullpen). Kenny pointed out that the Reds’ relief unit, once a weakness, has settled at 3.82 ERA, while Cleveland’s famed pen has slipped to 3.66 and no longer provides a massive edge. Offensively, Cincinnati has surprised him: seventh in runs, 10th in slugging, 11th in OBP, and they have posted scoring lines of 7, 4, 13, and 4 in four of their past five before Tuesday’s pitchers’ duel. The Guardians, meanwhile, have plated four or fewer in six straight and were three-hit in game two; they sit 24th in runs, 24th in average, 22nd in slugging, with Jose Ramirez essentially the entire threat. Given the better arm, hotter bats, and comparable pens, Kenny prefers the Reds moneyline and mentioned the under 8.5 as a secondary look based on both teams’ strong road/home under trends.

Drew Martin backed the Reds at +100 in Cleveland, saying the market is underrating a clear edge on the mound and in the bullpen. He noted Guardians left-hander Logan Allen has been batting-practice lately—60 hits and a 40-to-27 K/BB over 55 IP, plus an ugly 6-to-6 K/BB in his last three outings. Meanwhile Nick Lodolo brings a 3.20 ERA and six scoreless frames with just two runs allowed in last year’s meeting with Cleveland. Cincinnati’s bats have taken off, ranking top-5 in MLB wRC+ over the past week, and Martin’s bullpen grades give the Reds another sizeable advantage. With Cleveland sporting a negative 22 run differential despite a winning record, Martin advised grabbing the even-money dog.

Carlos Santana also drew praise against Nick Lodolo. He is 2-for-3 (.667) lifetime off the left-hander and has at least one hit in 8 of his last 10 (16 of 18 overall), making his hits or RBI props attractive.

Just A Bet Outside bet the Reds’ first-five-innings moneyline at –115, citing an overwhelming mound mismatch. Cincinnati is 6-2-2 on F5 moneylines with Andrew Abbott starting, and the left-hander has limited opponents to one run or fewer in eight of his last ten outings. On the road he’s been even stingier (2.05 ERA, .156 BAA, .273 SLG) thanks to being a fly-ball pitcher away from Great American Ball Park. Cleveland is disastrous against southpaws: 4-12 against left-handed starters overall and, in their last ten such matchups, opposing lefties have surrendered just five earned runs over 60 innings. Meanwhile Slade Cecconi brings a 6+ expected ERA, bottom-20th-percentile batted-ball profile and seven walks over his last three turns. With Cincinnati’s offense seventh in wRC+ and sixth in batting average versus righties the past three weeks, the tout believes the Reds will have the lead by the end of the fifth and at worst push if it’s tied.

Just A Bet Outside said Andrew Abbott’s strikeout prop is worth attacking in Cleveland. The Guardians have posted the 5th-highest K-rate against left-handed pitching over the last three weeks (28.9%), and they are especially left-handed heavy, which plays right into Abbott’s splits. The Reds southpaw owns 59 strikeouts in 53.2 innings this season, has recorded 8, 7, 5, 2, 8, and 6 Ks in his last six outings, and his strikeout rate skyrockets on the road (36.9%) compared to at home (21.5%). Abbott also whiffs lefties at a 30.8% clip—four points higher than he does righties—adding another edge against a Cleveland lineup built around left-handed bats. With that combination of opponent swing-and-miss tendencies and Abbott’s favorable splits, the tout expects Abbott to clear the market number (likely 6+ Ks) and views him as an anchor for K-prop parlays or straight wagers.

Kenny G said the Reds are a plus-money buy at +100 in Game 2 against Cleveland because the pitching and lineup edges both point Cincinnati’s way. He highlighted Andrew Abbott’s quietly elite 5-1 record and 2.18 ERA, noting the left-hander already blanked the Guardians for five scoreless frames on May 18 and just dominated the Cubs at Wrigley in his most recent road start. Kenny added that the Reds’ bullpen has course-corrected to a 3.82 ERA after a few early stinkers, while the offense is rolling with 7-4-13-4 runs in its last four and now sits 8th in MLB scoring. By contrast, Cleveland’s starter Slade Zikoni owns a 4.87 ERA and already allowed three earned runs to Cincinnati in his debut. The Guardians’ bats remain ice-cold (24th in runs, 24th in AVG) despite Jose Ramirez’s .333/12/32 line, and their bullpen has slipped to a merely average 3.76 ERA. With Cincinnati winning Game 1 and both teams trending toward unders in this park, Kenny likes the Reds straight up rather than messing with the total.

Cash Out Sports Picks urged bettors to grab the Reds moneyline, citing Andrew Abbott’s 2.18 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and a 7-3 team record in his starts. Cincinnati is also mashing AL Central pitching at a .280 clip and enters on a surge that finally resembles preseason expectations. The Guardians counter with Slade Sikoni, whose lone Progressive Field outing resulted in five Angels runs and whose home ERA sits at an ugly 10.38. Over his last 20.1 innings Sikoni has surrendered 22 hits and 11 runs. With a monumental edge on the mound and a red-hot lineup, the tout called Cincinnati at short odds “an absolute steal.”

Eric Pathi said to hammer the Reds moneyline because they fit his “rule of 10” angle: when a team riding a four-game winning streak is still priced as an underdog in game five, he automatically backs them. Cincinnati has won four straight yet the books again list them as dogs against Cleveland. Pathi noted that betting underdogs is where real value lives, pointing out that dogs historically hit 40% of the time and are cashing at 42.5% this MLB season, a 2.5-point edge over the long-term average. With the market disrespecting a hot Reds club, Pathi labeled them a complementary play and told listeners to auto-bet the dog.

Bill Harrelson advised betting Lane Thomas under 0.5 runs Tuesday against Cincinnati. Thomas has failed to score in nine straight games and 19 of his past 20 overall. Through 18 contests this season he has crossed the plate just once despite averaging 3.9 plate appearances. Harrelson added that Thomas owns a .059 batting average versus left-handed pitchers, further dimming his chances. The Nationals outfielder has also stayed under in seven of his last nine meetings with the Reds. Books such as DraftKings, Hard Rock, Caesars and Bet365 list the under at minus money, which Harrelson views as strong market confirmation for the fade.

Drew Martin backed the Reds at +104 because he expects Andrew Abbott to dominate Cleveland. Martin highlighted Abbott’s 2.18 ERA, sparkling 59-19 K/BB and the fact he’s thrown consecutive road shutouts while struggling only in Cincinnati’s hitter-friendly park. Cleveland’s offense rates bottom-10 by weighted runs created plus, giving Abbott a soft landing in a neutral park. On the other side, Slade Cecconi owns a 5.00 ERA and 6.00 FIP, surrendered five earned and three homers in his lone home start, and carries just a 6-to-5 K/BB in his last two outings. Martin also noted Cincinnati boasts a newly minted top-10 bullpen while Cleveland’s relief corps grades bottom-10. Add in the Reds’ strong splits versus right-handed pitching and the plus price, and Martin sees clear value grabbing Cincinnati on the moneyline.

Eric Lindquist recommended playing Wade Miley’s strikeout UNDER, expecting books to open at 3.5. He pointed to Miley’s ugly numbers at Triple-A (5-plus ERA and 1.60 WHIP) and the fact that he was shelled for four earned runs in just two MLB innings during his first 2024 appearance. Lindquist added that Cleveland’s lineup is contact-oriented and that Miley’s stuff simply no longer misses bats, making it unlikely he racks up four punch-outs. He framed the play as a lean now, but a bet as soon as the 3.5 line is widely posted.

Razzle said Luis Ortiz is one of his favorite tournament arms on the slate despite the volatility. Ortiz owns a 5.5 strike-out prop that is heavily juiced to the over and sits at +155 to record the win. Over his last three outings he has issued 10 walks, yet he also carries a sky-high 63% ground-ball rate and flashed double-digit strike-out potential against the Yankees earlier this month. Opponents are batting under .200 against him when he pitches in Cleveland, and the Reds strike out 24.8% of the time versus righties. Razzle thinks the park upgrade and win equity make Ortiz a boom-bust DFS option worth sprinkling in GPPs.