Lindquist is eyeing Nick Lodolo OVER 5.5 strikeouts at plus-money against the Mets. He likes that every Cincinnati reliever is rested after the break—meaning David Bell can ride Lodolo deeper if he’s dealing—and he trusts Lodolo’s 29 % strikeout rate plus a sweeping curve that generates a 15 % swinging-strike clip. While he wants final confirmation of New York’s post-break lineup (the Mets have been shuffling catchers and the bottom third is strikeout-prone), the price is attractive enough that this prop is "very tempting" to place once lineups lock.

Targeting a second-half upswing, Lonte Smith played the Mets –1.5 against Nick Lodolo and the erratic Reds. Smith highlighted Lodolo’s gopher-ball problem—he has allowed a homer in six of his last seven starts—and noted that New York’s lineup caught fire right before the break, winning six of its final ten. With Kodai Senga and Sean Manaea set to reinforce the rotation soon, Smith expects a clubhouse boost that translates to immediate postseason urgency. He also trusts Clay Holmes to keep the ball on the ground versus a Cincinnati offense that ranks 25th in ISO against sinkers and sliders, Holmes’s two best offerings. Once Lodolo exits, Cincinnati’s shaky bullpen (4.88 ERA) becomes an even bigger liability. Smith plans to pair the run-line bet with a Mets team-total over, projecting New York to tack on insurance runs late and win by multiple tallies.