Scott Reichel labeled Soroka an auto-fade, noting the right-hander’s 3-7 record and 5.10 ERA plus a brutal run of team results: Washington has lost seven straight Soroka starts, the last six by four or more runs. Reichel contrasted that with Lodolo’s solid 7-6, 3.33 line and sided with Cincinnati on the full game money line, adding that any derivative play fading Soroka is in play given those lopsided outcomes.

Malcom Bamford played the Reds at –138, noting that Burns has already cashed as a +150 and +140 dog and is 3-for-4 on quality starts. Paying sub-–140 for him is still a bargain compared with the night he closed –240 against Colorado. On the flip side, Brad Lord has 35 relief appearances but only six starts, all in April/May when Washington went 2-4 and opponents barreled him up. With the Nationals’ bats ice-cold and their bullpen about to do the heavy lifting, Bamford thinks you simply eat the short price on Cincinnati.

Lonte Smith laid the –1.5 with Cincinnati because Chase Burns keeps flashing frontline stuff. Burns has allowed only three earned runs total in his two July outings while striking out 17, including a one-run gem in Philadelphia. The Reds are 6-4 over their last ten and finally hitting, whereas Washington is 2-8 in that span and has scored two or fewer in five of those games. With Brad Lord making just his seventh career start—and the Nationals likely turning it into a full-on bullpen game—Lonte does not want any part of a relief corps that already owns a bottom-five ERA. He projects Cincinnati to post seven-plus runs and win something like 7-2 or 7-3, making the run line the preferred angle.

Eric Lindquist flagged the "James Wood 2-plus walks" market as a sneaky spot. Wood owns a walk rate north of 10%, and Lindquist noted that opposing right-hander Chase Burns has electric stuff but frequently loses the zone. With Wood batting left-handed and likely hitting in the heart of the order, Lindquist expects Burns to nibble rather than challenge him, creating multiple free-pass opportunities. Because his back-testing shows this walk market grading out well and the matchup sets up as the lineup’s best on-base threat versus a wild pitcher, Lindquist is leaning toward betting the 2-plus walks prop once prices are posted.

Cash Out Sports Picks laid the money line with Cincinnati, stressing that rookie right-hander Chase Burns has quietly allowed only three earned runs across his last 10.2 innings and would be facing a Nationals lineup that ranks 21st in slugging percentage. He blamed Burns’ 4.27 season ERA on one blow-up start and expects a sharp rebound tonight. Washington counters with opener Brad Lord—unlikely to work more than three frames—before turning things over to the league’s worst bullpen by ERA, a unit the tout called “a parade of arms that Cincinnati can exploit.” The Reds are 24-27 away but remain in the thick of the Wild Card chase, giving added motivation, while the Nationals own a 20-30 home mark and have struggled to win back-to-back games all season. Given the mound edge, bullpen disparity, and Cincinnati’s urgency, he labeled the Reds a high-confidence side play.

Kenny G leaned toward Cincinnati –135 despite acknowledging Brady Singer’s spotty run support. Singer carries a 7-7 record with a 4.32 ERA but is backed by a Reds bullpen that has rounded back into form after an ugly June. Washington counters with Jake Irvin (4.58 ERA), and Kenny noted the matchup advantage: the Nats pen is MLB’s worst by ERA (5.81), meaning any early Reds lead could snowball. Cincinnati has won four of five and sits 10th in runs scored, while Washington has dropped six of seven with a feeble 18th-ranked offense that has posted 1-4-2-1-5-3-1 runs in its last seven. Nationals Park has played slightly hitter-friendly this summer, but Kenny trusts Cincy’s deeper lineup against a staff that rarely strings together zeros. Because Singer seldom gets big run cushions, he ranked this only a "small lean" rather than an official play.

Cash Out Sports Picks leaned Cincinnati on the moneyline. Brady Singer has held opponents to two or fewer runs in 7 of his last 10, issuing only 4 walks over his previous three starts. Washington’s lineup is batting .226 over its last 10 games and has scored just 31 runs in that span (2-8 record). Jake Irvin, meanwhile, has allowed 3+ runs in 7 of 10 starts and walked 12 in his last four. The Nats’ bullpen owns the league’s worst 5.81 ERA. With the Reds 6-2 in their last eight and fresh off a series win over the Mets, the tout sees clear value backing Cincinnati.

Malcom Bamford targeted Matt McLain for a home-run prop against Jake Irvin. Irvin has surrendered 22 long balls in 20 starts—second-most in MLB—and has been particularly homer-susceptible on the road (1.9 HR/9, .507 SLG allowed). Bamford emphasized Great American Ball Park’s league-leading 14% HR boost and pointed out that McLain’s hard-hit rate has climbed to 46% since July 1 while posting six barrels in his last nine games. With Irvin’s four-seamer sitting belt-high and McLain seeing a heavy diet of heaters (53% of pitches faced), Bamford expects at least one elevated fastball to leave the yard and will ride McLain at anything +400 or better.

Malcom Bamford preferred the full-game Reds moneyline, citing Singer’s week-to-week consistency (3, 2, 2, and 4 ER in his last four) and a Nationals club that has dropped eight of ten while scoring just 3.7 runs per game at home in July. Cincinnati had rattled off a four-game winning streak before Sunday’s tight loss and owns the deeper lineup and healthier bullpen. Bamford views the Reds as the percentage play and is comfortable laying the short road number despite Singer’s lack of true ceiling, because Washington’s offense simply has not been able to capitalize on opportunities.

Dylan Rockford grabbed Nationals first-five +0.5, leaning on Jake Irvin’s drastic home/road split. Irvin has not allowed more than three earned in a Nationals Park start since April 9 (the lone blemish came against the Dodgers), and Washington is generally competitive early when he pitches. Rockford wants no part of the Nats’ shaky bullpen, so limiting the wager to the opening five frames makes sense. He thinks two or three early runs off Brady Singer are well within reach given Singer’s middling recent form (three, two, two and four earned runs his last four starts). With the plus-half hook attached, Rockford sees the Nats as a live under-the-radar play in the first half.

Eric Lindquist circled Elly De La Cruz as Monday’s primary home-run prop. Batting left-handed – where 13 of his 15 homers have come – Elly draws righty Jake Irvin, owner of a 47.4 % hard-hit rate, 5.14 expected slugging, and sub-17 % strike-out rate. Irvin’s four-seam/sinker combo fails to miss bats, his curve doesn’t finish, and opponents carry a 13.5° average launch angle with a near-30 % fly-ball rate. Lindquist believes those traits perfectly feed De La Cruz’s need for loft and expects at least one ball to leave the yard, making the HR prop and ancillary DFS exposure worthwhile.