Cash Out Sports Picks recommended backing the Phillies to win and cover the run line behind ace Zack Wheeler. He contrasted Wheeler’s current heater—two earned runs allowed over his last 31 innings (0.58 ERA) with four wins in five starts—with Reds rookie Chase Burns, who has been shelled for eight runs and 11 hits in only 5.1 MLB innings and could not escape the first in his last outing. Philadelphia is 8-3 in its last 11 at Citizens Bank Park, while Cincinnati has dropped five of seven versus NL East clubs. The form gap plus home-field edge makes laying the chalk worthwhile.

B Wade targeted Elly De La Cruz over 5.5 fantasy points, noting the rookie has eclipsed that mark in 14 of his last 20 games and seven of nine career contests versus Philadelphia. Even against ace Ranger Suarez on Saturday, Elly produced two hits and cleared the number. While he is only 1-for-5 lifetime off Zack Wheeler, De La Cruz is raking against right-handed pitching with a .298 average compared to .279 overall. His blend of speed, power, and on-base skills has produced a 70% hit rate over the last 20 games, and Wade expects him to stay hot against a Phillies bullpen that has been worked hard this series.

B Wade played Zack Wheeler’s strikeout prop at 7.5 on Sleeper before it moved to 8.5 elsewhere. Wheeler has punched out at least eight hitters in four consecutive starts and averages exactly 8.0 Ks per game in 2025. The Reds own MLB’s 7th-highest strikeout rate, and Wheeler struck out 10 and 8 in his two meetings with them last year. At Citizens Bank Park his average rises to 8.4 Ks, and he has still cashed this ticket in five of nine home outings. With the Reds continuing to swing through everything in the current series, Wade labeled the over a plus-EV play.

Lonte Smith advised laying the -1.5 with Philadelphia because Ranger Suarez is in peak form while Nick Lodolo rarely works deep. Suarez has logged 7+ innings in five straight and posted a 1.26 ERA over that span, four of those outings coming on the road. He has yielded only three earned runs total in his last three home starts and continues to dominate with a heavy ground-ball profile. Lodolo, by contrast, has coughed up a homer in six consecutive starts and usually leaves after five innings, putting a shaky Reds bullpen on the hook for the final third of the game. Smith projected a 3-1 or 4-1 Phillies win, noting that Lodolo’s road ERA is more than a run higher than at Great American Ball Park.

The analyst took the Reds moneyline despite facing Ranger Suarez. Suarez owns a sparkling 2.00 ERA, but Philadelphia has dropped three of his last six starts due to inconsistent run support. Cincinnati is 7-3 over its last ten and Nick Lodolo has been superb on the road with a 2.31 ERA and .208 opponents’ average across 46.2 innings. The Reds have been profitable in recent series while the Phillies’ bats have cooled, making Cincinnati a live dog.

B Wade advised taking Matt McLain under 1.5 total bases. McLain owns just a .211 batting average overall and an even worse .206 mark against left-handed pitching. In 27 games that began with a left-handed starter he has produced multiple bases only six times, a 22% success rate that translates to a 78% hit rate on the under. He has never faced Ranger Suarez, but Wade expects Suarez’s current shutdown run to continue, further suppressing McLain’s chances to reach two bases. The play is correlated with Wade’s Suarez over-outs prop, banking on a quiet night for Cincinnati’s infielder.

B Wade said Ranger Suarez should clear 18.5 outs because the left-hander is in elite form. Over his last eight starts Suarez has surrendered only six total earned runs despite opening the season with a seven-run clunker, keeping his ERA near 2.00. He has completed the seventh inning in five straight appearances and has failed to record at least one seventh-inning out only three times all season. Wade views Suarez’s endurance and run prevention on par with Tarik Skubal and expects him to cruise through at least 6.1 innings against Cincinnati, making the over on 18.5 outs a strong prop bet.

Eric Pathy said the Cincinnati Reds are an automatic wager on July 5th under his long-standing dog-to-dog system. The rule: when a team wins outright as an underdog and is listed at an even longer price the very next day, you blindly back them unless new information emerges. Cincinnati is 27-22 this season when priced as a dog, generating a healthy profit. They cashed at +129 on July 4th in a 9-6 win, and books reopened them at +145 ("plus forty-five cents") for July 5th while their opponent remains, in Pathy’s words, "a shit favorite." With that historical underdog record, the immediate rematch spot, and a fatter price, Pathy called the Reds his complimentary "system play" and advised bettors to fire on the moneyline.