Greg Peterson set Sunday’s Reds-Rockies total at 9.7 but expects books to open 10.5 or higher at Coors, so he is on the full-game Under. He trusts Nick Lodolo’s steady profile—2.79 ERA, improved walk rate—and a quietly deep Cincinnati bullpen (Scott Barlow, Alexis Diaz, Tony Santillan) to limit late fireworks. On the other side, Ryan Feltner’s ground-ball tilt plus a thinned-out Colorado lineup missing Chris Bryant and nursing Ezekiel Tovar should keep the Rockies around five runs even in altitude. Peterson added that Victor Vodnik’s injury further weakens an already poor Rockies relief corps, giving the Reds a path to a money-line win (he’d lay up to –158) without pushing the total Over.

Greg Peterson said he will play the Reds –1.5 if the number opens –115 or better at Coors. Nick Lodolo’s strikeouts are down, yet he owns a 2.79 ERA with much better walk suppression—ideal against a Rockies lineup missing Chris Bryant and nursing Ezekiel Tovar. Colorado’s only real punch has come from rookies Jordan Beck (5 HR) and Hunter Goodman (4 HR), and the club still averages just 5.1 runs at home. Ryan Feltner has allowed only three runs in 11 Coors innings, but Peterson doubts the sustainability given Feltner’s lifetime ERA north of six and limited swing-and-miss ability. He gives Cincinnati’s deeper bullpen—Scott Barlow, Alexis Diaz, Tony Santillan—the late-inning edge over a Colorado relief corps that remains bottom-10. With Elly De La Cruz’s power/speed combo, Matt McLain’s pop and Gavin Lux’s .300 average helping the Reds score early, Peterson priced Cincinnati –158 and expects them to win by multiple runs.

JD Bets is riding Cincinnati on the moneyline in Coors Field despite the hitter-friendly total of 11. The Reds are on a heater, slashing .308 with a 1.02 team OPS and averaging 11.4 hits per game over the past week. Colorado counters with right-hander Kyle Freeland (Feltoner in the clip), who has been tagged by right-handed bats for .368 and .357 averages in recent matchups. While Nick Lodolo has not turned into the strikeout machine JD anticipated, his underlying numbers still grade out better than Freeland’s. JD said he could never fade the Reds’ current pop and prefers the straight moneyline to avoid extra-inning randomness at altitude.

Daniel Vreeland backed a No-Runs-First-Inning (+105) in Reds–Rockies despite the Coors Field homer narrative. He pointed to Colorado starter Ryan Feltner’s 2.45 ERA and 11 K in 11 home innings along with only one outing above two earned runs in five starts (that lone blemish came against the Dodgers, a much scarier lineup than Cincinnati). On the other side, Nick Lodolo owns a tidy 2.79 ERA and has surrendered fewer than one homer per appearance. Colorado’s lineup ranks 22nd in long balls per game (0.88) even with the altitude boost. Vreeland concluded the combination of two in-form arms and a Rockies offense that rarely leaves the yard makes the plus-odds NRFI worth a play.

The Fox Sports/Data Skrive model spit out a 5-4 final score, making Under 11 the recommended total wager. Although Coors Field is notorious for shoot-outs, the projection leans lower because Colorado’s offense has averaged only 4.5 runs over its last ten games, and the club’s K-rate spike (7.7 K/9) limits sustained rallies. Cincinnati’s offense has been hot, but six of its past ten contests still stayed Under an 11-run bar. Add in a daytime start where the forecast calls for cooler temps in Denver and you get a model edge that fades the public’s automatic over reaction.

Data Skrive projected Cincinnati to win Sunday at Coors Field and recommended a straight moneyline play at the current -154 price. Their model gives the Reds a 56% win probability and notes several supporting trends: Cincinnati is a perfect 3-0 this season when laying -154 or steeper, while Colorado is a brutal 1-16 when listed at +129 or longer. The Rockies have won just three of 23 games as underdogs overall and stagger in at 1-9 over their last ten. Pair that with Cincinnati’s 7.2 runs per game during the same stretch and a bullpen ERA nearly a full run better than Colorado’s 5.59, and Data Skrive sees enough edge to eat the juice rather than gamble on the -1.5 run line.

Kingpin Staff encouraged taking Over 10.5 runs in Reds–Rockies. Coors Field has produced 12.4 runs per game this season and offers a 25% boost to run scoring. Rookie Ryan Feltner owns a 5.59 ERA and the league’s lowest ground-ball rate (29%), while Cincinnati starter Nick Lodolo, although talented, is making only his third start off the IL and has allowed a .340 xwOBA in two road outings. With both bullpens carrying ERAs north of 4.70, Kingpin expects crooked numbers in the middle innings to push the game well into double digits.

For hitter streams, Zola circled Noelvi Marte atop a stack of Reds (Spencer Steer, TJ Friedl, Gavin Lux) heading into Coors Field against Rockies right-hander Ryan Feltner. Feltner has served up a 5.00-plus ERA and a .500 slugging percentage to righties in Denver, and Coors is MLB’s premier run-scoring environment. With the thin air boosting batting-average on balls in play and extra-base power, Zola expects Marte to capitalize on both run-production and stolen-base chances, labeling him a must-start in any daily lineup format.

Peterson took Under 11 at Coors Field. Ryan Feltner owns a 3.86 ERA and has surrendered only 3 ER in 11 home innings. Nick Lodolo has been even better on the road (3 ER in 18.1 IP, 2.79 ERA overall). Peterson called the Reds’ 5.7 road runs per game misleading because 24 came in one outing versus Baltimore. Colorado averages a modest 5.2 at home. His projection was 9.7, giving more than a run of value to the under.

Greg Peterson said he will lay up to –188 on the Reds or grab their run-line if it opens –127 or better because Colorado simply can’t protect Antonio Senzatela. Senzatela is surrendering a ridiculous 16.0 hits, 3.3 strikeouts and 1.5 homers per nine, yet still owns a fluky 4.81 ERA—numbers Peterson called “a miracle” at altitude. The Rockies bullpen is even thinner with Victor Vodnik (club-best ERA last year) on the IL and Onel Chivilli offering little swing-and-miss. Jimmy Herget has been the lone bright spot, but Peterson doubts he can cover the leverage innings by himself. Cincinnati’s relief corps isn’t perfect—he is no fan of Emilio Pagan’s homer issues—but Alexis Diaz and Scott Barlow give it a clear edge over Colorado’s patched-together group. Pair that with a Reds lineup whose surface stats are muted by several 1-0 losses, and Peterson believes Cincinnati is undervalued in what he expects to be a lower-scoring Coors game.

Peterson set Saturday’s Reds–Rockies total at 9.6 and happily took the under 10.5. Hunter Greene has allowed two runs or fewer in four of five starts, flashing triple-digit velocity and a whiff rate that should play even at altitude. Colorado’s offense is averaging just five runs per game at home—mediocre by Coors standards—and still owns only one homer per game in the thin air. On the other side, Peterson noted Cincinnati’s lineup looks far better on paper thanks to the 24-run outlier against Baltimore; outside that game the Reds have logged several 1-0 losses. Antonio Senzatela pitches to contact, but the Reds’ BABIP has nosedived without Matt McLain and Christian Encarnacion-Strand. Cincinnati’s middle-of-the-road bullpen (Rogers, Suter, Barlow) is still a tier above Colorado’s unit that lost Victor Vodnik to the IL. All told, Peterson believes 10.5 is at least a run too high and would play the under down to 9.5.

Greg Peterson said the 10.5 total on Saturday’s Reds-Rockies game is too high and likes the full-game under. He argued that Cincinnati’s offensive numbers are badly skewed by the 24-run explosion they hung on Baltimore last week, while their day-to-day reality has included several 1-0 losses. Colorado’s lineup is historically bad — a 4-20 record and minus-59 run differential speak for themselves — so he is not worried about them pushing the game over. With bettors over-reacting to tiny April samples, Peterson believes recency bias has forced books to hang double-digit totals that do not match the true offensive profiles of either club, even in Coors Field. He is comfortable fading that inflation and playing the under as long as the market stays above 10.

Kenny G labeled the Reds money-line at –190 his potential “big, massive, crazy lock of the day.” He likes the matchup because Hunter Greene draws Antonio Senzatela, who is 1-3 with a 4.81 ERA and routinely pitches himself into trouble despite a decent outing against Washington. Cincinnati enters on solid form while Colorado is floundering: the Rockies rank dead last in runs scored, 29th in batting average and 27th in OBP, and their bullpen (3.99 ERA) is merely middle-of-the-road. Greene’s swing-and-miss stuff travels, and Kenny trusts the Reds to exploit an anemic offense and grab a road win even at a steep price.

Kenny G thinks the Under 10.5 is very live at Coors. His case: Hunter Greene’s fastball/slider combo should neutralize Colorado’s league-worst lineup, which has posted just seven, two and four runs the last three games and sits 30th in runs and 29th in average. On the other side, Antonio Senzatela is capable of limiting damage enough to keep the game respectable, and neither bullpen is an outright gas can (Reds 3.90 ERA; Rockies 3.99). With both clubs 12-12-1 and 15-8-1 to the under respectively, Kenny expects a rare low-scoring affair in Denver.

Brian Howard recommended bypassing the steep –192 moneyline on Cincinnati and instead betting the Reds ‘double result’ (lead after five innings and win the game) to snag a plus-money number. His logic: Hunter Greene should dominate early, and with reliever Ian Jabot already throwing the night before, Cincinnati’s shakiest high-leverage arm is unlikely to be available to melt the lead late. Howard believes Colorado’s league-worst 80 wRC+ on the road and their 0.78 runs per first five innings against right-handers make the double-result a cleaner, more profitable angle than laying heavy juice or messing with an inflated run line.

Brian Howard circled Hunter Greene’s strikeout props as the way to attack Saturday’s Reds–Rockies game. Howard dug into Colorado’s numbers and found they have fanned 180 times in just 553 plate appearances versus right-handed pitching – a 32.5% K-rate that dwarfs every other club once you adjust for volume. Greene’s high-octane four-seamer (average 98.6 mph) and 30% career strikeout rate match perfectly with that weakness. Howard wants plus money before firing: he’d pass on 8+ Ks at +110 but would gladly ladder to 10+ if books hang something near 3-to-1. He framed the play purely as a Rockies “auto-fade” against good righties and expects Greene’s velocity to overwhelm a lineup that has struck out more on the road than at Coors.

The tout recommended betting the full-game OVER, noting neither pitching staff keeps the ball in the yard—Reds have allowed 32 homers (t-25th) and Rockies 31 (t-20th). Cincinnati’s bats travel (.762 road OPS, 5.54 runs) while Colorado routinely hits at home (.770 OPS, 5.0 runs). With Hunter Greene elevating velocity in thin air and Senzatela offering little resistance, they expect another slugfest similar to Friday’s 8-7 shoot-out.

Cash Out Sports Picks said Saturday sets up perfectly for Cincinnati to win by margin. They pointed to Colorado’s ghastly 4-21 record and an offense that may again be without Brenton Doyle, who missed Friday for personal reasons. Hunter Greene’s triple-digit fastball should survive the thin air and overwhelm a Rockies lineup that ranks near the bottom of the league in every power metric. Opposite him is Antonio Senzatela, a huge talent gap the tout labeled ‘nowhere near Greene’s level.’ Offensively, the Reds have been monsters on the road—.762 OPS (3rd in MLB) and 5.54 runs per game—while Colorado’s staff has already surrendered 31 homers. All signs, they argued, point to Cincinnati covering any reasonable spread.

It's The Final Round targeted Elly De La Cruz props against Antonio Senzatella, highlighting a dream pitch-mix fit. Senzatella pumps a four-seam fastball 61 % of the time and it has been torched for a .351 average. Elly is slashing .438 (7-for-16) with 2 HR off four-seamers this season, plus .333 (4-for-12) against sliders and .286 (2-for-7) vs curveballs. Even Senzatella’s changeup (19 % usage) is hemorrhaging a .538 average. There is no prior matchup, but De La Cruz carries an eight-game hitting streak and has hits in 14 of his last 17. The tout expects that form to continue and is comfortable betting his hits + runs + RBI or total bases overs.

Marcus flagged Elly De La Cruz ($6,300) as the slate’s most explosive hitter, noting that pairing his 16% barrel rate and 9 SBs with the Coors Field run environment is DFS gold. Antonio Senzatela’s 13.9% K rate and 1.48 HR/9 leave little resistance, and the Rockies’ bullpen sits 29th in xFIP. Even with elevated prices across the Reds’ lineup, Marcus still wants EDLC exposure in stacks because a 15-DK-point floor and 35-point ceiling are both realistic in this environment.

Zola urged fantasy managers to start Hunter Greene at Coors Field even though most ranking models fade any pitcher there. He referenced Tristan H. Cockcroft’s research showing the 2025 Rockies carry a historically poor offense (league-low .274 wOBA, 77 wRC+ despite altitude). Greene’s 31% strikeout rate and 98 mph average fastball give him the raw stuff to neutralize Colorado, and with Cincinnati favored he projects well for a win. Zola admitted overriding his own rankings is rare but called this matchup ‘the exception that proves the rule.’

Lonte Smith prefers isolating Cincinnati’s bats, betting the full-game team total OVER 5.5 and splitting a unit with the first-five team total OVER 3.5. Smith echoed concerns about Antonio Senzatela’s 88 mph average exit velocity and paltry strikeout rate, pointing out that contact pitchers routinely get punished in Coors. He believes the top of the Reds order can plate six or seven runs, especially if Senzatela’s 47% ground-ball rate dips on the thin-air infield. Smith is less interested in laying the juice on a side and instead wants exposure to both Senzatela’s early innings and Colorado’s bullpen that owns a 5.92 ERA. He called this a bounce-back spot for a Reds offense averaging just 3.8 runs on the road but 6.4 in their last five visits to Denver.

Scott Reichel laid out a straight-forward fade of Colorado by betting Reds –1.5 at –128. Reichel expects a sharp Hunter Greene rebound after the flamethrower surrendered 5 ER and 3 HR in Baltimore; prior to that hiccup Greene had been "elite all season," nearly throwing a shutout against San Francisco. Antonio Senzatela’s extreme pitch-to-contact profile (14.7% K-rate, 33 hits allowed in 28 IP) is a poor fit in Coors, and Reichel noted the right-hander has already been torched by Milwaukee and the Dodgers in Denver. The 4-20 Rockies have the league’s worst record, a bottom-three bullpen ERA, and have dropped 10 of their last 11 by multiple runs. With the superior starter and lineup, Reichel prefers the run line to an unplayable –190 moneyline.

Lonte Smith targeted Matt McLain to go yard at Coors Field, citing both the venue and Antonio Senzatela’s extreme pitch-to-contact profile. Despite an 0-for-9 mini-slump, McLain still owns a 43 % fly-ball rate, and Senzatela has produced only a 14.7 % strikeout rate with a .326 xBA and 1.9 HR/9 in Denver. Forecasts call for mid-70s temps and a mild out-to-center breeze, classic launching-pad conditions. Smith expects the Reds to hang a big number against a Rockies staff with a 5.92 bullpen ERA and sprinkled a half-unit on McLain at +500 or better to leave the yard.

Ryan Wormeli highlighted Austin Hays as his favorite widely-available hitter add. Since coming off the IL Hays owns a .361 average, 1.040 OPS, three homers and a steal in just 36 at-bats. Under the hood looks even better: 18.5% barrel rate (triple last year’s mark), 51.9% hard-hit rate (career-best) and expected numbers that back it up (xBA .329, xSLG .674, .443 xwOBA). Hays is walking at the second-highest rate of his career while maintaining a manageable strikeout rate. Wormeli loves the combination of elite early-season batted-ball data and the fact Hays now plays half his games in Great American Ball Park, one of MLB’s premier launching pads. With roster rates under 40% on Yahoo and 20% on ESPN, Wormeli said managers should scoop him up everywhere and "ride him until the bat cools off."

Kingpin recommended laying the ‑190 with Cincinnati because the matchup at Coors is lopsided. Hunter Greene has blossomed into a front-line arm (4-2, 1.75 ERA, 34% K-rate) and his new splitter has held hitters to a .104 xBA. He draws a Rockies lineup that ranks dead last in wRC+ (71) and is just 4-21 overall. Colorado counters with Antonio Senzatela, whose 6.02 xERA and 17% strikeout rate spell trouble against a Reds offense featuring Elly De La Cruz, TJ Friedl, and Matt McLain—all three posting .200+ isolated power so far. The total is sitting near 10, but Kingpin believes most of those runs come from the Cincinnati side; Greene’s 97-mph heater plays even at altitude, while Senzatela’s pitch-to-contact approach is a nightmare in Coors. Expect Cincinnati to build an early lead and let its revamped bullpen (3.46 ERA) slam the door.

Halterman suggested streaming Mickey Moniak during Colorado’s schedule stretch that features four home series out of five. Now in Coors Field, the former No. 1 overall pick shows signs of life: strike-out rate down to 19 % (from a career 32 %), hard-hit rate up to 50 %, and a consistent 10 % barrel rate despite past struggles. He already cut his K-rate to 27 % last season, indicating progress. At 26 there’s still underlying talent, and even a league-average bat can pop in Coors. Halterman views Moniak—as well as Kyle Farmer or Michael Toglia—as viable short-term adds, but Moniak’s pedigree and recent plate-discipline gains make him the preferred flier while the Rockies are at home.

He pivoted to the over on the total. Abbott has looked sharp, but Coors Field routinely inflates run scoring, and Kyle Freeland owns a 6.48 ERA at home. Team pitching splits echo the venue edge: Reds road ERA 3.80 versus Rockies home ERA 4.99. Six of the last ten meetings have cleared the number, and Colorado’s exhausted bullpen could be forced to eat innings. The tout projected a slugfest despite the Reds being the only competent offense in the matchup.

He made the Reds his strongest side, noting Colorado’s 0-2 Thursday doubleheader that required seven pitchers and left the staff gassed. Cincinnati has beaten the Rockies in nine of the last ten meetings and carries a league-best .951 OPS over the previous week. Rookie left-hander Andrew Abbott has surrendered only 4 hits and 2 ER with 16 K in 11 innings, whereas Colorado sports a .642 OPS in that same span. Until the Rockies show life, the tout will keep fading them, calling the current money line price ‘laughable’.

Kenny G recommended betting Cincinnati at –140, saying the price is light given the mismatches across the board. Rookie lefty Andrew Abbott is 2-0 with a 1.64 ERA, has fanned 16 in 11 innings, and the Reds are 2-0 in his starts. The club’s bullpen has quietly posted a 3.46 ERA, which Kenny calls “super playable.” Colorado, meanwhile, owns MLB’s worst record (4-20) and puts 0-4 Kyle Freeland (4.85 ERA, exited after two innings vs Washington) on the mound. The Rockies’ pen hovers around 4.00 ERA and their offense is tied for 29th in runs, hitting just .214 as a team. Kenny points out that the Reds aren’t a bad road squad (6-7) and their bats—boosted by Gavin Lux and Elly De La Cruz—are more than capable against a Rockies staff that has allowed five or more runs in five of Freeland’s last six appearances. He sees little downside at –140 and projects Cincinnati as the clear side.

Despite Colorado�s 4-19 record, Drew Martin argued the +122 home price is worth grabbing because the matchup and schedule spot favor the Rockies. Kyle Freeland�s career ERA and WHIP are virtually identical home and away, so the lefty�s five-year, $60 million deal gives Martin confidence when he toes the Coors Field rubber. Cincinnati arrives under .500 and on the back end of a three-city road swing (Baltimore → Miami → Denver), jumping from sea level to elevation. Their starter Andrew Abbott has lost velocity this year and is MLB�s most extreme fly-ball arm among qualified pitchers (only 31 % ground-ball rate over last three seasons), a dangerous trait in the thin Denver air. Martin expects Abbott�s profile to play poorly at altitude and is willing to risk 100 to win 122 on the Rockies moneyline.

Joe Pisapia bumped Brady Singer into automatic-start territory following six innings of two-run ball and eight strikeouts against Miami. Singer’s outing helped keep Cincinnati’s team ERA among the best in the National League, and Pisapia pointed out that the Reds rotation—Abbott, Greene, Lodolo, and now Singer—looks deceptively deep. With Singer missing bats and consistently working six frames, Pisapia recommended locking him into lineups for both his next turn and an upcoming two-start week, especially in leagues that count quality starts.

Kyle Purviance listed Andrew Abbott’s strike-out over as one of his best bets, saying he will fire on any 6-plus ladder the books post. Purviance reminded listeners that Abbott just fanned 13 in his last turn and now draws a Colorado lineup that has whiffed 77 times in 241 plate appearances versus lefties—a staggering 31.9% rate. Even at Coors Field, he expects the elevation to be neutralized by the Rockies’ chase-happy approach and their bottom-five wRC+ against southpaws. Purviance prefers an alt number because he expects the main line to open around 5.5 juiced; he is comfortable up to 6.5 at plus money, reasoning that Abbott’s swing-and-miss changeup profiles perfectly against Colorado’s aggressive left-hand bats.

Brian Howard recommended taking Under 9 runs (even money) in Coors Field because both offenses are inept against left-handed pitching. The Reds enter Friday hitting .188 with 53 strikeouts to just 36 hits versus southpaws, third-worst in MLB. Colorado is only marginally better at .216 and has fanned 77 times in 241 plate appearances against lefties. With Andrew Abbott coming off a 13-strikeout outing and Kyle Freeland’s soft-tossing profile actually neutralizing the Reds’ platoon bats, Howard expects a slow early pace and suggested an Under 4.5 in the first five as an alternate. He acknowledged that both bullpens are shaky but argued the strikeout-heavy matchup outweighs Coors’ park factor, estimating the true total at 8.1 runs after adjusting for the clubs’ combined 77 wRC+ versus lefties.

Todd Zola said Jeimer Candelario is a savvy corner-infield plug-in for Friday through Sunday. The switch-hitter owns a .203 ISO from the right side since 2023 and gets to attack left-handed Kyle Freeland plus Colorado’s shaky bullpen in baseball’s most hitter-friendly park.

Even though rostered in fewer than 25% of ESPN leagues, Austin Hays made Zola’s streaming list because of the same juicy Coors matchup. The right-handed outfielder owns a career .280/.325/.467 line versus lefties and could benefit from Cincinnati’s high-octane context in Denver, making him a sneaky fifth-outfielder play.

Zola pointed to Spencer Steer’s multi-position eligibility and top-30 hard-hit rate as reasons to scoop him up before the Reds’ Coors Field series. Facing a contact-oriented lefty in Kyle Freeland, Steer’s line-drive approach should translate into extra-base hits and run-scoring chances all weekend.

Zola highlighted Noelvi Marte as a widely available right-handed bat to stream this weekend. The Reds open a series at Coors Field against Rockies lefty Kyle Freeland, giving Marte the platoon edge plus the altitude bump. With everyday playing time and gap-to-gap power, Marte is poised to rack up runs and RBI in fantasy lineups.

Caleb Wilfinger advised taking the Reds moneyline at -130 (playable to -135) in their trip to Coors Field. He cited left-hander Andrew Abbott’s hot start—2-0 with only four hits and two earned runs allowed over 11 innings—as a major edge over a Colorado offense sitting dead last in the NL with a .213 average and .632 OPS. Meanwhile, the Rockies own MLB’s worst record (4-20) and have lost 11 of 12. Projected starter Kyle Freeland carries a 4.85 ERA, .276 expected batting average against, and a 41.4% hard-hit rate, plus he’s dealing with a blister after surrendering 10 earned runs in his previous two outings. Wilfinger doubts the Rockies will supply Freeland much run support and expects Cincinnati’s lineup to scratch out multiple runs in hitter-friendly Denver, making the Reds a short favorite worth backing.

Peterson hammered Over 9 (model 9.8). Colorado averages five runs per game and a .254 average at home versus two runs and .184 on the road. Reds lefty Andrew Abbott has surrendered only two runs in two starts this year, but his career 4.61 FIP screams regression, while Rockies starter Kyle Freeland has allowed 3+ runs in four straight. Ball should be flying at altitude.

Todd Zola recommended adding Matt McLain for the weekend because the Reds second baseman/shortstop will take his aggressive pull-side power to Coors Field versus left-hander Kyle Freeland. McLain’s career .534 slugging versus southpaws could spike further in Denver’s thin air, making him a prime middle-infield streamer.