John Lanfranca echoed the de Ridder money-line play at +275 but is also allocating a quarter unit to de Ridder by submission at +750. He expects Nickal to eventually initiate grappling—either to answer critics after the Paul Craig kickboxing snoozer or simply by instinct—and believes de Ridder’s pure-Jiu-Jitsu level is higher right now. Lanfranca noted de Ridder’s dual black belts, contrasted with Nickal’s freshly minted purple belt, and pointed out that Nickal was once quickly tapped by Gordon Ryan in a grappling match. Given Nickal’s declining performances and his voluntary exit from the rankings, Lanfranca views the fight as a toss-up and loves the big number on the more accomplished submission artist.

Billy Ward advised waiting until Saturday to grab Reinier de Ridder’s money line—already +275 and drifting toward +300—because casual parlays will keep pumping Bo Nickal’s side. Ward thinks the matchup is far closer than the pricing suggests: de Ridder is a black belt in both judo and BJJ, carries real submission threat, and possesses slightly cleaner, if unathletic, stand-up. Ward also sprinkled a fun prop—de Ridder to land at least one takedown at +450—citing his judo trips and the possibility of the UFC stats crew counting a reversal as a takedown. The overall plan is to exploit the market’s over-confidence in Nickal, whose striking looked awkward and whose wrestling went unused in a dull decision over Paul Craig.

For the final leg at +190, Matty Betts predicted Bo Nickal wins by KO/TKO (or DQ). Betts highlighted that Desmond Day Ridder was wobbled repeatedly by Gerald Meerschaert and both of his MMA losses came via knockout; he has never been submitted despite 14 career submission victories. Nickal’s camp is deliberately matching him with grapplers to build confidence in his striking, making a stand-up finish the developmental goal. Betts added that Day Ridder’s aggressive wrestling entries could expose him to clean shots or a club-and-sub scenario that ends with ground-and-pound. He also cited Nickal’s perceived cardio edge—if the fight creeps into the late 2nd or 3rd, Nickal’s pace could melt a fading Day Ridder, leading to a stoppage on the mat.

DFS Army co-host Monk planted his flag on underdog Reinier De Ridder (+260, $7,100) to upset Bo Nickal. He noted that De Ridder out-grappled Gerald Meerschaert and submitted Kevin Holland in three minutes, while Nickal’s takedown rate and control time fall off a cliff after Round 1 and he failed to dominate Paul Craig late. Monk believes De Ridder only needs to weather the opening barrage; once Nickal’s pace drops, the Dutchman’s BJJ can snare a Round 2/3 submission or pile up enough top-time to out-score a fading favorite who likely cannot 10× his $9,100 salary without an early finish. He will be heavy on De Ridder in GPPs and is betting the money-line straight at longer than +250.

After initially leaning the other way, Millz Young flipped to Bo Nickal once he visualized the wrestling exchanges. Reinier de Ridder, a 19-2 former ONE double-champ, is a pure grappler with shaky stand-up and a habit of dropping his hands. Millz expects RDR to clinch immediately, but if Nickal—an NCAA legend with explosive hips—can stuff three or four early takedowns, the momentum tilts fast. Nickal is still green on the feet but possesses real power, and Millz sees a scenario where the American sprawls, forces RDR to strike, and knocks him out in the second or third round. Suggested play: Nickal inside the distance, particularly KO/TKO.

The Weasle forecasted Reinier de Ridder to submit Bo Nickal in the third. He called de Ridder a ‘Driscus 2.0’—awkward but effective on the feet, extremely long, and lethal once fights get grappling heavy. Nickal’s explosive double-legs translate into big overhand swings, yet his precision and gas tank lag behind. Against Paul Craig, Nickal showed he can be drawn into wild exchanges and forced to shoot sloppy takedowns. De Ridder, a former ONE double-champ with a dozen submission wins, can strike just enough to frustrate Nickal, then catch the desperate shot in a guillotine or triangle. Expected script: de Ridder lands rangy combos, Nickal tires, shoots on a bad entry, tap follows. Recommended wagers: de Ridder money-line plus de Ridder Sub or R3 props.

Matty Betts called Bo Nickal at –300 “the buy-low spot of the century” and targeted Nickal by knockout—especially Round 3—against Reinier de Ridder. Betts argued the market is overreacting to De Ridder’s BJJ credentials, ignoring that the Dutchman was repeatedly tagged and slowed late by Gerald Meerschaert. Nickal is the far better athlete, owns Division-I championship wrestling, and, per Betts, has purposely taken back-to-back matchups with guard players like Paul Craig and De Ridder to sharpen his kickboxing in real time. He expects Nickal to sprawl early, keep the fight upright, and piece up the hittable De Ridder with straight lefts until a finish materializes. Cardio also favors Nickal, making the +650 Round 3 KO/TKO prop Betts’s favorite angle, with a smaller position on the generic KO line around +200 in case the stoppage comes sooner.

DFS Army’s primary host leaned toward Bo Nickal at –320 yet ranked him last among the 9K options on DraftKings. Nickal averages 2.3 significant strikes, nearly two takedowns and 2.6 minutes of control in Round 1, but those numbers crater in Round 2 (70 % fewer takedowns, 33 % less control) and he has zero recorded grappling success in Round 3. The tout still expects the three-time NCAA champ to secure early takedowns and heavy top pressure en route to a decision or late TKO, but worries that a missed early finish could leave Nickal short of the 10× return needed at $9,100. He will roster Nickal only in GPP builds that can afford multiple 9K finishers and will avoid him in cash games.

Jim Malaro called Bo Nickal a must-play favorite because Reinier de Ridder simply cannot force the one path where he is dangerous. De Ridder’s two UFC wins came over an aging Gerald Meerschaert—who was actually winning until his gas tank emptied—and a carefree Kevin Holland, so Malaro views the 19-2 record as smoke and mirrors. He noted De Ridder’s takedown entries are painfully slow and telegraphed, the exact opposite of what you need against a three-time NCAA champ with world-class hips. Nickal already owns solid submission grappling chops, giving Malaro confidence he can stay safe on the mat while enjoying a massive athletic edge in every scramble. Once the Dutchman gasses after an inevitable failed shot or clinch exchange, Malaro sees Nickal pounding him out or grabbing the neck. Recommended plays are Nickal moneyline in parlays and Nickal Inside-the-Distance or by TKO/Sub if plus money appears.

Monk planted his flag on Reinier de Ridder at $7,100, predicting the Dutch submission ace shocks Bo Nickal after the opening five minutes. Nickal’s ultra-wrestling profile is terrifying early—2.3 sig strikes, 1.9 takedowns, and 2.6 minutes of control in Round 1—but Monk stressed that those numbers crater later: takedowns fall 70 % in Round 2 and he has recorded zero takedowns or control seconds in any documented Round 3. Nickal even went to a decision with Paul Craig and did nothing in the third while Craig begged to grapple, a “humongous red flag” in Monk’s words. De Ridder, meanwhile, has logged 5-of-13 takedowns and three minutes of top time against Gerald Meerschaert, then tapped Kevin Holland in under three minutes—proof he can attack off his own wrestling or from his back. Monk believes if de Ridder survives the initial barrage, Nickal’s cardio dump gives the Dutch Knight live arm-triangle or back-take equity and, at worst, a path to a high-scoring grind. Because Nickal’s $9,100 salary only pays off with an R1 finish, Monk will be underweight on the phenom and overweight on de Ridder in all DFS formats.

Cody Saftic argued that –310 is the first realistic money-line price on Bo Nickal after a string of –1200 or worse tags. Public overreacted to Nickal’s measured striking vs Paul Craig, but Cody sees that bout as valuable cage-time where the 28-year-old learned on the job. Nickal’s striking will improve each camp, whereas de Ridder’s has stagnated after 13 pro years. Because the ONE champ relies on judo and BJJ rather than takedowns, Cody doubts he can bring Nickal to the mat. That forces a stand-up battle where Nickal’s raw power and athleticism shine. Cody is comfortable laying the current ML, sprinkling KO and decision props as hedge, expecting Nickal to either club-and-sub or win a wide 30-27 striking affair.

Paul Shaughnessy likes Bo Nickal inside the distance, specifically by knockout at roughly +200. Re-watching the Paul Craig bout, he saw a deliberate effort by Nickal to develop stand-up— decent head movement, feints, and measured combos— rather than diving into Craig’s guard. Against Reinier de Ridder, that same approach neutralizes the Dutchman’s only trump card (jiu-jitsu) because Nickal’s Olympic-level wrestling will dictate where the fight takes place. On the feet, Paul rates Nickal the superior athlete and faster striker; de Ridder struggled to defend straight lefts from Gerald Meerschaert, so he expects Nickal’s power to translate. Preferred bet: Nickal by KO/TKO, with an eye on the under 1.5 for parlay material.

Kunath predicted Bo Nickal wins by knockout, not wrestling. He argued Nickal’s decision win over Paul Craig was intentional, designed to bank cage time without flirting with Craig’s guard—experience that now pays dividends. Against world-class grappler Reinier de Ridder, Nickal will again avoid the mat because de Ridder’s guillotines, triangles, and back-takes are the Dutchman’s clearest win condition. Instead, the former Penn State wrestler boxes at range, using his threat of level changes to draw de Ridder’s hands low, then detonates the overhand left that Kunath believes ‘finishes the fight.’ If plan B is needed, Nickal can still land takedowns and ride from top because de Ridder is less dangerous off his back than from dominant positions. Size, submission pedigree, and pro experience all favor de Ridder on paper, but Kunath says none of it matters if Nickal forces a kick-boxing match. Bettors should consider the Nickal KO prop and DFS players can target his ceiling without banking on grappling points.

Gumby Vreeland recommended betting Bo Nickal by decision at +210. He expects Nickal to replicate the Paul Craig game-plan—stay upright and box rather than risk grappling with a high-end submission specialist. Reinier de Ridder owns 13 career subs and is dangerous off his back, so Nickal’s American Top Team corner is likely to stress clean striking exchanges, lateral movement and sprawl-and-brawl tactics. Vreeland doubts Nickal will pursue ground-and-pound finishes, anticipating three low-risk rounds where Nickal’s boxing and range management rack up points but not a stoppage. The juicy plus-money decision prop, therefore, offers far better value than the –300 moneyline.

Gumby Vreeland endorsed Bo Nickal at roughly ‑300, but not for the usual ‘rag-doll wrestler’ narrative. Vreeland expects Nickal to avoid the mat altogether against Reinier de Ridder, a former ONE double champ with 13 career submissions. He referenced Nickal’s last bout with Paul Craig where the three-time NCAA champion chose to strike rather than give a high-level grappler any grappling sequences. De Ridder is a slower, upright kickboxer who was getting pieced up on the feet by Gerald Meerschaert, and Vreeland does not see him successfully shooting on Nickal’s wrestling base. Nickal’s camp has consistently built game plans around exploiting opponents’ weakest phase, so Vreeland anticipates a boxing-heavy approach that capitalizes on de Ridder’s lack of head movement and foot speed. As long as Nickal keeps it standing, Vreeland expects him to bank rounds or find a late TKO, making the money-line playable in parlays and the decision/TKO props worth a look.

MMA Guru reiterated but sharpened his Bo Nickal take, saying the full-size Des Moines cage and Nickal’s in-and-out burst make it almost impossible for Reinier de Ridder to initiate the overhook-and-trip sequences that fuel his d’arce-choke game. Guru pointed to tape of Gerald Meerschaert repeatedly scrambling up and even winning Round 2 versus de Ridder with nothing more than basic underhooks, arguing Nickal’s Division-I wrestling base provides an even sturdier ‘central balance’ that will stop de Ridder from flipping him or finishing front-head submissions. He noted de Ridder’s static feet—“he doesn’t move backward, just lifts his lead leg and posts”—and predicted Nickal’s straight right to the body will land at will because de Ridder raises a high guard without retreating. Although de Ridder enjoys a 2-inch reach edge (78" vs 76"), Guru dismissed it as irrelevant given the speed gap. Expect Nickal to bolt in, sting de Ridder, sprawl on any panic shot, then swarm for a TKO around the three-minute mark of Round 1. Guru advised laying the chalk on Nickal’s moneyline only as a parlay piece but prefers the Nickal KO/TKO prop and the Under 1.5 rounds, warning that de Ridder’s only path is a hail-mary d’arce before Nickal finds top position.

After initially leaning toward Reinier de Ridder, MMA Guru flipped his pick and now forecasts Bo Nickal to score an early stoppage. Rewatching tape, Guru noticed Gerald Meerschaert repeatedly snapped de Ridder’s head back with straight rights before getting submitted late, exposing de Ridder’s slow hands and porous defense. Guru believes Nickal’s fast-twitch double-leg entries will force de Ridder to strike first; once Nickal plants him on his back, the former Penn State star’s improving ground-and-pound will open up a TKO within the first three minutes. He stressed that Nickal’s camp is deliberately pacing his development and that de Ridder—coming off a knockout loss to Anatoly Malykhin and fighting outside ONE’s circle cage for the first time in years—will have trouble adjusting to the UFC’s gloves and canvas. Because sportsbooks still price Nickal as a submission specialist, Guru prefers the Nickal KO/TKO prop and the under 1.5 rounds.

Bedtime MMA predicted Reinier de Ridder upsets Bo Nickal, either by decision or a round-three submission. He emphasized De Ridder’s 6'4" frame, previous success up at 205, and elite submission chops forged in ONE Championship title fights. The analyst thinks De Ridder’s relentless pace, awkward southpaw striking, and willingness to walk through shots will force Nickal—who struggled in spots versus Paul Craig and Cody Brundage—to fight off the back foot and tire. If Brundage could stuff and reverse Nickal in clinches, Bedtime believes the stronger, craftier De Ridder can outright ‘manhandle’ him once the American’s early burst fades. With better high-level experience, a more diverse grappling arsenal, and the maverick fight IQ that turned GM3 into target practice, De Ridder is pegged as the live dog to break the prospect’s aura.