The Weasle balked at Ricky Simon being a –500 favorite over Cameron Smotherman (+350). While Simon’s chain-wrestling still makes him the pick, the analyst pegged a fair line around –200, noting several knockout risks. Smotherman carries genuine one-shot power and Simon’s plodding entries leave his chin exposed—an issue that nearly cost him against lesser punchers. Because Simon typically needs one takedown per round to seal minutes, any scramble he loses in open space could end with him on the wrong end of a big counter. The Weasle recommended either passing on the moneyline or taking a small stab at the Smotherman KO prop, which should sit north of +600.

The Weasle projected Ricky Simon to smother Cameron Smotherman for three rounds and earn a unanimous decision. Smotherman’s boxing-heavy style and porous defense against takedowns make him a perfect target for Simon’s chain wrestling. Simon should avoid extended striking exchanges—where his plodding footwork can get him clipped—and instead hunt singles and doubles, either from the centre or against the fence. Once grounded, Smotherman is expected to struggle to stand because Simon excels at riding positions and mat returns. Unless Simon falls in love with his hands and gets caught, The Weasle sees his wrestling volume and top control sealing every round.

Guru sees betting value on Ricky Simone as only a slight favorite. Simone just flatlined Javid Basharat and owns a finish of Raphael Assuncao, proving his pocket power. More importantly, he can lean on a wrestling-heavy game plan—an approach that exposed Smotherman in his recent loss to Suri City. Smotherman accepted the bout on a quick turnaround after absorbing damage, while Simone’s fundamentals and cardio travel well without a full camp. Guru projects Simone to bank early rounds through takedowns and top control, coasting to a 29-28 or 30-27 decision.

Madlab said Ricky Simon is still the same cardio-monster who once drowned Merab Dvalishvili and should ‘big-brother’ late-notice newcomer Cameron Smotherman. Simon opened –525 but Madlab is comfortable using him as a parlay leg because the matchup plays directly into Simon’s strengths: high-volume double-legs, chain-wrestling and suffocating clinch control. Smotherman is explosive yet “very, very green,” has never faced a ranked-level wrestler, and accepted the bout on one week’s notice. Madlab noted Simon’s only recent losses were to elite bantamweights Song Yadong and Mario Bautista—fighters miles ahead of Smotherman in footwork and scramble awareness. If Simon goes back to his ‘grass-roots’ pressure game instead of having an ego-based kickboxing match, Madlab expects takedowns inside the opening minute, rapid mat returns and a fatigued Smotherman who “runs out of options really quick.” He advised pairing Simon with another confident side rather than laying the straight chalk or guessing totals in a fight where Simon’s pace could force either a late stoppage or lopsided decision.