Billy Ward believes Muhammad Yahya’s +300 money-line is a touch disrespectful given the Abu Dhabi venue and recent judging trends favoring local fighters. Ward referenced Fakhruddinov’s controversial hometown scorecard as proof that underdogs from the UAE can receive "pre-filled" tallies if they survive. While he concedes Yahya is a middling prospect and Nguyen owns greater finishing upside, Ward argued that a second-fight-of-the-night slot plus partisan judges make +300 an over-correction. He suggested nibbling the big dog price or passing entirely, noting that any play on Nguyen should focus on finishing props rather than laying chalk on the ML in case the bout reaches the cards.

Billy Ward is backing Reinier de Ridder at plus money before the opening bell, citing a pronounced size and strength edge over former welterweight Robert Whittaker. Ward highlighted that De Ridder has only been defeated by true light heavyweights and heavyweights, carries high-level judo along with his submission wrestling, and can turn clinch entries into trips or throws thanks to a 6'4" frame and long limbs. He views Whitaker’s issues against Hamzat Chimaev’s and Dricus Du Plessis’s physicality as a direct parallel. Still, Ward admits De Ridder’s gas tank is a question and plans to grab Whittaker live if the Australian drifts into plus money after Round 1 or Round 2. The goal is to leave Abu Dhabi with plus numbers on both sides by combining a pre-fight De Ridder ticket with a live Whittaker hedge once cardio begins to tilt the momentum.

Sean Zerillo said Robert Whittaker is worth a pre-fight play at any number up to -160 and an even stronger target for a live bet if the line improves after the first or second round. Zerillo expects Reinier de Ridder to use his length and grappling early, which could let the underdog steal the opening frame and force the market to shorten Whittaker. Over 25 minutes, though, Zerillo likes Whittaker’s deeper gas tank, superior minute-winning striking, and wider finishing paths. He pointed to De Ridder’s lone five-round outing in ONE Championship where the Dutchman was “completely exhausted” in Round 5, plus the fact that Whittaker’s recent struggles against Hamzat Chimaev and Dricus Du Plessis came from raw physicality that De Ridder may not be able to replicate for five rounds while cutting back to middleweight. Zerillo’s ideal script: let De Ridder control early, then hammer Whittaker at a cheaper live price to capitalize on the Australian’s late-fight cardio edge.

Matty Betss said he is siding with Robert "Bobby Knuckles" Whittaker in the prospective Whittaker-de Ridder matchup, projecting a knockout once the former champ finds his rhythm. Betss argued that "every guy who bullies De Ridder just absolutely bullies him," and Whittaker’s trademark forward pressure, combination punching, and scramble-heavy takedown defense should keep the fight upright. He conceded Reinier de Ridder’s 6'4" frame, clinch knees, and all-around grappling are legit, but stressed De Ridder must drag the bout to the mat and dominate top position—something Whittaker’s 85 % UFC takedown-defense rate and lateral movement historically deny. Whittaker has survived five-round wars with Yoel Romero and Israel Adesanya, while De Ridder has been wobbled whenever opponents refused to be backed up. With Whittaker’s experience edge, proven cardio, and the cumulative damage De Ridder absorbs when forced to retreat, Betss leans toward a R2-3 finish but is comfortable playing Whittaker KO/TKO at any plus-money number.

Matty Betss is taking a swing at Reinier de Ridder by knockout at +700 while sprinkling the under 2.5 rounds. He likened de Ridder’s come-forward aggression to Dricus du Plessis—who mauled Whittaker—and stressed that the Dutchman’s 6'4 frame, clinch knees and top-side ground-and-pound make him uniquely capable of bullying a former welterweight. De Ridder owns a 20-2 record and just starched Bo Nickal, evidence to Betss that his striking power is underrated. Whittaker, now 33 with multiple five-round wars behind him, has shown cracks when someone refuses to play a technical kickboxing match. Betss expects de Ridder to back Rob to the fence, unload knees and elbows, or finish with follow-up shots on the mat. He acknowledged Whitaker’s footwork advantage but believes the size, hunger for “new blood,” and Abu Dhabi spotlight tilt volatility toward a finish, making the +700 KO price too good to pass.

Bedtime MMA projected a rough night for Reinier De Ridder. He said the Dutchman will empty the gas tank chasing early front-choke chains—darces, guillotines, trips off the fence—only to run head-first into Robert Whittaker’s elite takedown defense. Once rounds two and three arrive, De Ridder’s shots will be stuffed in open space and he will start eating collar-tie uppercuts, short elbows, and ripping body work from Whittaker inside the clinch. Because De Ridder happily pulls guard after failed entries and is comfortable stalling from his back, the tout doubts Whitaker finds a clean finish; instead he expects De Ridder to absorb steady damage, get busted up by double-jabs and right hands off the break, yet cling on to hear the horn. The recommended bets are Whitaker-by-decision and over 4.5 rounds, fading De Ridder’s win equity while banking on his awkward, grappling-heavy style to keep him conscious.

Bedtime MMA flipped from his early lean toward Reinier De Ridder and now projects Robert Whittaker to win 50-45 or 49-46. He worries about Whitaker’s first-round pace after the Dricus du Plessis loss, so allowed De Ridder a possible opening frame on clinch volume. Still, Bedtime argues De Ridder must grapple to succeed, lacks the explosive athleticism du Plessis used, and telegraphs outside-trip attempts Whitaker’s elite takedown defense can stuff. On the feet, Whitaker’s double-jab, burst entries and head-kick threat exploit De Ridder’s square pressure stance and “sus” striking defense. The tout envisions De Ridder chasing front-choke chains, fading by R3, while Whitaker keeps range, sprawls, and piles up damage with quick combinations. Because De Ridder will clinch whenever rocked, Bedtime expects the bout to hit the cards, making Whitaker money-line and decision props his recommended angles.

Bedtime MMA sided with unranked slugger Jose Ochoa to knock out #6 flyweight Asu Almabayev. He called Almabayev’s lofty ranking a by-product of a shallow division, arguing the Kazakh is a solid wrestler but offers limited finishing threat. Conversely, Ochoa trains with Chute Boxe, carries real one-punch power, and owns slick BJJ from his back—he nearly caught top prospect Luna Cavana in a triangle. The tout expects Almabayev to win early control minutes, yet every round will require longer striking exchanges. Almabayev habitually retreats with his chin high, a lapse Bedtime believes Ochoa will punish with a looping overhand as the Kazakh’s entries slow. Prediction: Ochoa lands that bomb in the mid-second or third round for a KO, making him a juicy money-line underdog and live-bet candidate once he survives the initial grappling.

Sniper called the –150 moneyline on Robert Whittaker “the biggest recency-bias discount in months.” He compared Reinier de Ridder to a less frightening Yoel Romero and questioned whether the newcomer’s wrestling is anywhere near Khamzat Chimaev’s. Sniper expects Whittaker to stay on his bike, pump the jab and stuff single-leg and body-lock attempts, noting that Whittaker handled prime Romero in similar scenarios. If the fight remains standing, Whittaker owns the sharper metrics across strike differential, knock-down rate and championship-round cardio. Priced at $8,400 on DraftKings, Sniper views Whittaker as a high-floor, high-ceiling mid-range option for both cash and GPPs and is betting the line before it widens.

Monk picked Reinier de Ridder to upset Robert Whittaker, arguing that Whittaker historically struggles when opponents rack up takedowns and top control. Both of Whittaker’s recent defeats (Khamzat Chimaev and Dricus du Plessis) followed that blueprint. De Ridder excels in clinch-to-mat sequences, having dominated Bo Nickal, Kevin Holland and Gerald Meerschaert in those positions. Monk believes that if de Ridder can close distance, drag Whittaker to the canvas and chain wrestle, he has a clear path to victory. He acknowledged the risk of de Ridder’s unproven cardio in Rounds 4–5 but noted Whittaker’s larger accumulation of damage over his career. At $7,800, de Ridder’s submission upside offers slate-breaking potential, so Monk will be overweight on the underdog while hedging modest Whittaker exposure.

Dan Tom said the cleanest way to attack this matchup is the finish-only market on Said Nurmagomedov at –150 (scorecards no action). Tom already liked the Dagestani as a small underdog but worried about laying a diminished money-line number after missing the +150 opener and acknowledged Nurmagomedov’s historical round-three fade. The finish-only ticket solves both issues: it refunds if Bryce Mitchell grinds out the decision that represents his main win condition yet still cashes on any Nurmagomedov KO or submission. Tom highlighted Mitchell’s reckless, naked shots and poor southpaw fundamentals that invite Nurmagomedov’s accurate spin kicks and patented standing ninja choke—the same sequence that flat-lined Ricardo Ramos and nearly snared Jonathan Martinez. While Mitchell is physically larger, Tom doubts he can replicate Charles Oliveira’s suffocating pace that exposed Nurmagomedov’s gas tank after six dominant minutes. He risked two units on the prop, projecting Nurmagomedov to either club-and-sub or catch a front-headlock choke before cardio becomes an issue.

Dan Tom fired 2.5 units on Robert Whittaker at -140 and added a full unit on Whittaker by knockout at +180. He argued the KO line is mis-priced because Reinier de Ridder closes distance methodically rather than chaotically like Khamzat Chimaev, giving Whittaker time to set his angle-heavy combinations. Tom pointed to Whittaker’s perfect 6-0 record against UFC-caliber southpaws, his historical success stuffing single-shot takedowns, and the regulation-size cage in Abu Dhabi that further rewards Whitaker’s dart-in-dart-out footwork. De Ridder’s slower, ‘coffee-sipping’ entries leave him open to the same lead-hand counters that Jared Cannonier and Dricus Du Plessis landed—only de Ridder lacks their athleticism or punching power. Because Whitaker’s implants have solved the jaw issues that flared up in the Chimaev fight, Tom believes durability is no longer a concern and likes the KO prop as a hedge that still cashes if the Reaper wins by decision.

Michael Lurato backed Robert Whittaker, arguing that Reinier de Ridder has not proven himself against elite middleweights. Lurato dismissed the hype around de Ridder’s win streak, noting that his signature victories—over Bo Nickal, Kevin Holland, and Gerald Meerschaert—came against an "unfinished project," a notoriously porous grappler, and a solid but still very beatable veteran. In contrast, Whittaker has fought and often beaten every style imaginable, giving him a massive experiential edge at the same age. Lurato believes de Ridder must repeatedly corner Whittaker, secure takedowns, and work submissions—tasks made harder in the larger Abu Dhabi cage and by Whittaker’s dart-in-dart-out movement. Because de Ridder is not especially fast or explosive, Lurato doubts he can bridge that gap often enough to win minutes, let alone find a finish. Until de Ridder shows he can beat this caliber of opponent, Lurato refuses to fade Whittaker and recommends betting the former champion at current odds.

Dan Tom said Robert Whittaker is still a bet at roughly -145 after opening as high as -180. He pointed out Whittaker’s perfect 6-0 record against UFC-level southpaws and reminded listeners that he has historically cashed as an underdog or short favorite in grappler-first match-ups. Tom acknowledged that switch-stance strikers like Jared Cannonier and Dricus Du Plessis clipped Whittaker with lead-side counters, but he stressed that Reinier de Ridder lacks their athleticism, footspeed, and striking power. The bout takes place in a regulation-size cage, which Tom believes favors Whittaker’s angle-heavy footwork and makes it harder for the slower, “plotty” de Ridder to close distance for takedowns. He also noted de Ridder’s best wins—Bo Nickal, Kevin Holland, Gerald Meerschaert—are against unfinished or highly beatable opposition, whereas Whittaker has seen every style and traditionally stuffs one-shot takedown attempts. Tom framed the fight as a classic "y’all must have forgot" spot and is comfortable laying the current number on Whittaker.

Kunath explicitly advised against stacking the five-round main event in cash games this week. He believes the fight ends inside three rounds, creating asymmetric risk: one fighter scores well, the other likely busts, torpedoing the combined total. With most opponents still default-stacking, fading the stack provides a safer floor and leverage in double-ups and head-to-heads.

Kunath called RDR "the right side of the main event" at dog salary. He cited RDR’s 6’4" frame, long limbs and elite back-taking skills displayed in wins over Gerald Meerschaert and Kevin Holland. Averaging 110 DK points, RDR knows he can’t win a five-round marathon, so Kunath expects a full-throttle approach that produces either a round-one or round-two submission/KO or bust. The knees RDR flashed last time out plus Robert Whittaker’s need to crash distance give RDR ample opportunity to get to his preferred grappling positions. For DFS, the boom-or-bust profile makes him a priority value play in tournaments.

THE MMA GURU doubled-down on his upset pick but got more granular, recommending bettors target the Reinier de Ridder submission prop specifically in Round 2 or Round 3. He emphasized de Ridder’s 6'4" frame and 78-inch reach, noting Whitaker has historically struggled when foes combine size, physicality and unorthodox attacks— the exact trio that toppled him against Dricus Du Plessis. Guru also flagged Whitaker’s catalog of injuries: reconstructed jaw after Khamzat Chimaev collapsed his lower teeth, multiple abdominal hernias and a recent dental overhaul. Meanwhile, de Ridder is “in his prime,” carrying momentum from a dominant win over Bo Nickal in which he reversed Nickal’s takedown and out-grappled the collegiate legend. Add the GM3 submission on his resume and Guru sees de Ridder eventually dragging Whitaker into clinch exchanges, landing elbows to force a scramble, then slipping to the back for a rear-naked choke. He expects Whitaker to be competitive early—maybe even snatching Round 1—before the size and grinding top pressure break him late in the second or sometime in the third. Suggested action: de Ridder ML, but especially de Ridder by submission in R2/R3 at plus money.

THE MMA GURU took a swing at the underdog, predicting Reinier de Ridder will upset Robert Whittaker in Abu Dhabi. He argued Whittaker historically struggles when opponents can both *out-physical* him and bring awkward, "clumsy" offense—citing Driscus Du Plessis steam-rolling the former champion. De Ridder, a 6'4" southpaw with a sizable reach edge, checks both boxes and owns championship reps in ONE. Guru pointed to de Ridder’s ability to bully opposition in the clinch, chain takedown attempts into leg-lock rolls, or simply knee the body until the fencing collapses—exact pressure Whittaker dislikes. He also flagged Whittaker’s recently reconstructed jaw after Khamzat Chimaev caved in his lower teeth, questioning the Aussie’s durability only eight months removed from major dental surgery. Meanwhile, de Ridder rides momentum from comprehensively out-grappling Bo Nickal, a result Guru says proves "prime RDR" can dictate where the fight happens. Expect de Ridder to drag Whittaker into clinch battles early, mix trips with wild pocket exchanges, then secure top position and either submit a weary ‘Bobby Knuckles’ late or win a grinding decision. Suggested bets: De Ridder money-line plus sprinkle submission prop.

TheWeasle predicted Robert Whittaker will finish Reinier de Ridder by third-round TKO. He conceded RDR’s advantages—significantly larger frame, superior pure jiu-jitsu and submission arsenal—but argued those edges mirror the pre-fight narrative that preceded Whittaker’s upset loss to Dricus Du Plessis and are being overstated again here. In his view, the matchup boils down to speed, defensive awareness and footwork. Whittaker’s lateral movement, jab-first approach and quick right-hand counters should shred RDR’s “gumpy, unathletic” striking, which TheWeasle called outright sloppy and nearly devoid of head-movement. RDR’s typical defence—simply raising a high guard or leaning straight back—allowed Anatoly Malykhin and Jarrah Al-Silawi to land clean, and Whittaker can replicate those angles. The critical swing factor is takedown defence: Whittaker historically stuffs 83 % of shots when opponents are not elite wrestlers like Khamzat Chimaev, and TheWeasle doubts RDR’s slower entries can overcome that barrier once the Australian circles laterally rather than backing straight up. If the first two rounds remain standing, cumulative jabs and overhands will swell the damage, and by Round 3 TheWeasle expects RDR’s absorption to become unsustainable, opening the door for a finishing combination. He believes the market underrates Whittaker—priced only a slight favourite despite clear striking superiority and proven five-round cardio—and recommends betting Whittaker money-line or TKO/KO Round 3 prop for added value.

TheWeasle picked Jose Ochoa to defeat Talgat Amabayev by decision. He replayed Ochoa Cody Durden knockout, emphasizing the lightning-quick left shovel hook and follow-up counter left that dropped Durden as proof of Ochoa precision when opponents over-extend. Amabayev’s offense relies on flashy kicks and long, looping punches that often leave his head turned away—exactly the kind of mistake Ochoa punishes. While Amabayev owns excellent chain wrestling along the fence (single to double, lift-and-sweep sequences that dominated Jose Johnson and CJ Vergara), TheWeasle noted that the same wrestling was far less effective once the competition level rose against Manel Kape and Matheus Nicolau. Achoa’s constant forward pressure should crowd the kicks, force wild punches, and create boxing exchanges where he is faster and cleaner. The analyst believes Achoa’s defensive grappling is just good enough to survive the takedown series, bank control-time deficits in only one round, and out-land Amabayev on the feet the other two. Betting lean: Achoa money line or decision prop.

Bedtime MMA picked Reinier de Ridder—dubbed “DDP 2.0”—to stop Robert Whittaker, likely via ground-and-pound, in their Abu Dhabi main event. He pointed to de Ridder’s massive middleweight frame, relentless clinch-grappling and five-round experience that mirrors Drikus du Plessis, who exhausted Whitaker and split him open with elbows. The tout doubts Whitaker can one-shot KO the bigger Dutchman and noted Whitaker fades when forced into high-pace wrestling exchanges (see the Du Plessis bout and Chimaev’s early rugby-tackle takedown). He anticipates de Ridder muscling clinches, dragging Whitaker down without textbook shots, battering the body with knees, and eventually overwhelming a tiring "Bobby Knuckles" for a late stoppage—making de Ridder a live underdog for bettors.