Guy Boston Sports likes Isiah Kiner-Falefa UNDER 1.5 total bases as a standalone play or paired with an alternate game total. Kiner-Falefa owns just a .529 OPS versus left-handed pitching this year and draws Rockies southpaw Kyle Freeland, whose cutter/curve combo Kiner-Falefa grades a poor 2.6 on the show’s internal pitch-mix scale. With Pittsburgh projected for only 3.9 runs, the tout expects limited plate appearances and minimal hard contact, making the plus-juice under appealing.

Drew Martin went back to the well with Colorado as a big underdog, arguing that –170 is far too rich for Pittsburgh without Paul Skenes. Kyle Freeland just spun 7.1 shutout innings and owns an ERA almost two full runs lower on the road than overall, a typical but still meaningful Coors split. The Pirates’ offense ranks near the bottom of MLB and 25-year-old Quinn Priester Burrows (1-4) rarely survives beyond five frames, exposing a Pirates pen Martin called shaky over the last month. He sees little offensive advantage for Pittsburgh and no pitching edge worth that price, so he’s taking the Rockies plus money.

Eric Lindquist warned listeners not to lay the –195 opener on Pittsburgh against Colorado. He acknowledged Braxton Ashcraft’s shiny recent results but reminded bettors that the Pirates’ offense is still bottom-tier and the matchup with Antonio Senzatela hardly justifies a near-two-dollar line. Lindquist’s own numbers made the Buccos closer to –145, so he recommended passing unless the price crashes, stressing that Pittsburgh is “just not that guy, pal.”