Calling it a clear pitching mismatch, Lonte Smith is laying the –1.5 with Chicago. Matthew Boyd owns a 2.34 ERA and a 10-2 record overall, but the key note is Wrigley Field: he has not allowed more than two runs at home since mid-May and has tossed three scoreless outings in his last four starts, including an 8-inning gem last time out. During Boyd’s four-start winning streak the Cubs have out-scored opponents 29-4. Kansas City’s offense is 24th in road wRC+ and Smith “doesn’t trust them one bit,” especially with the Royals yet to announce a starter. Unless books massively inflate the price, he likes Chicago to win comfortably, projecting 5-2 or 6-2.

Kenny G said the only side that makes sense is Chicago –140, even with Ryan Brazier opening what will be a full-on bullpen game. He trusts a Cubs relief corps carrying a 3.60 ERA far more than anything the 29th-ranked Royals offense can muster. Kansas City has scored three or fewer in four of its last six and is just 28-21-1 to the under on the road, signaling consistent run-support problems for rookie Noah Cameron. Meanwhile Chicago owns the league’s No. 2 run total on the season and a dominant 32-15 record at Wrigley, factors Kenny believes justify laying the modest price despite the early-inning uncertainty that comes with a bullpen day.

With numbers off the board, Rockford projected Chicago as –150 favorites assuming Chris Flexen starts. He acknowledged Noah Cameron’s sparkling road line (0.93 ERA in five away starts) but argued Wrigley presents the stiffest test he has faced: the Cubs boast one of MLB’s top home OPS marks, a four-game win streak prior to Sunday’s hiccup, and a reliable late-inning relief corps. Kansas City’s bats crater on the road and their bullpen is bottom-five in xFIP. Anything –150 or cheaper on Chicago is a buy for Rockford once the market opens.

Chris Ruffolo advised taking the Cubs at what he called a cheap price on Monday at Wrigley. He trusts Chicago’s bullpen more than Kansas City’s bats, noting that the Royals have scored three runs or fewer in roughly 60% of their games despite a brief spike against Miami. The matchup favors Chicago’s offense: the Cubs are smashing left-handed pitching lately, batting .344 with 5.3 hits per game over their last five and .304 over their last ten. Ruffolo respects rookie southpaw Noah Cameron, who tossed 6.2 scoreless innings last time out, but pointed out that he was hit hard by the Dodgers and Yankees and now faces what he considers one of baseball’s deeper lineups. Chicago has been strong at home all season, and Ruffolo believes they can plate enough runs off Cameron and let a still-solid bullpen (4.91 ERA in July) protect the lead against an unreliable Royals lineup. Play: Cubs moneyline.