Just A Bet Outside said he was backing the Kansas City Royals money line at -120 for one unit because they own advantages everywhere. Starter Ryan Berger has allowed two earned runs or fewer in eight of his last ten outings and carries a 0.94 WHIP with a 3.73 xFIP in August. Opposite him, Aaron Savali has crashed back to earth with 16 earned runs, 21 hits and seven walks over his last 14.1 innings (7.00 August ERA, 4.28 xFIP). The Royals offense ranks fourth in WRC+, slugging and OPS against right-handed pitching during the past three weeks and has been stronger on the road, while the White Sox sit mid-table (15th WRC+) and generally handle lefties better. Kansas City’s bullpen is both better rested and more effective after Chicago used leverage arms in Tuesday’s loss. With the superior starter, hotter lineup, fresher pen and playoff motivation at a short price, he advised taking Kansas City.

Just A Bet Outside highlighted Salvador Perez as one of his best hitter matchups. Perez is 6-for-19 (.316) with two home runs against Aaron Savali, a sample Steven called “a couple Jimmy Jax.” Savali leans on a cutter/curve combo that Perez has punished for a .226 ISO this season. With the Royals’ implied total sitting near five runs, Steven recommends Perez for total-bases or home-run props and likes him as a cost-effective DFS catcher.

Kenny G said the -120 price on Kansas City is worth laying because Alec Berger (5.2 IP, 3 H, 2 ER vs Detroit last time out) already diced this same White Sox lineup on 8/17 (5.1 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 7 K). He trusts a Royals bullpen that owns a 3.68 ERA and has not blown many leads, while Chicago’s relief unit sits north of 4.00 and is, in his words, 'not really headed in the right direction.' Offensively the Sox rank 26th in runs, have produced just 4-7-8-7-7-0 runs their last six, and will likely be without their center-fielder due to a hamstring issue. Kenny expects Aaron Savale (5.02 ERA, roughed up by Minnesota last start) to struggle again, leaning on the Royals’ 34-31-1 road under record as evidence that low-scoring KC can still cover this short price. He summarized: back Kansas City on the road, Berger out-duels Savale.

Lindquist bet Pasquantino’s Hits+Runs+RBIs line over 1.5 at –115, projecting it closer to –150. The matchup is ideal: Aaron Savale owns just a 19.2 % K-rate and a .436 expected slugging while giving up 47 % fly-balls, a profile that bleeds extra-base damage in hitter-friendly Guaranteed Rate Field with wind forecast to be blowing out. Pasquantino himself is scorching, posting a 400-plus ISO for August and usually hitting directly behind Bobby Witt Jr., giving him both plating and table-setting opportunities. With Chicago’s bullpen ranking bottom-eight in xFIP, Lindquist sees multiple paths for Pasquantino to eclipse the combo prop.

Kenny G grabbed Chicago at +130, labeling it a rare spot where the White Sox deserve respect as home dogs. He called Kansas City’s starter Michael Lorenzen unbackable after three blow-ups in his last four starts, pushing his ERA to 5.12. The Royals lineup has sunk to 27th in runs and 25th in OBP and has scored 1 or 2 runs in two of its last three. Conversely, Chicago has won four of five and suddenly plated 4-7-3-4-8 runs during that stretch despite still ranking 26th in runs on the season. Kenny likes what he has seen from converted reliever Mike Vasil, who has strung together three multi-inning relief appearances of 3+ scoreless frames against Detroit, the Mets and Texas and now gets his first start. Chicago’s bullpen is no longer a tire fire, and the club is 18-13-2 to the over at home, signaling friendlier run support. With KC just 14-18 on the road and laying –154, Kenny thinks the market is overvaluing the Royals’ early-season narrative and is happy to take the hotter bats and plus money with the South Siders.

Cash Out Sports Picks backed Kansas City after last night’s bullpen meltdown. He highlighted the Royals’ fundamentals (only 27 errors all season, bullpen 3.35 ERA) and Michael Wacha’s recent heater—fewer than two earned runs allowed in four of his past five starts while working 6+ innings in 9 of 12 outings. Chicago’s offense ranks 28th in batting average and historically struggles with Wacha (.303 collective BA but little damage). Adrian Houser has given up just 3 ER in 18.1 IP, yet the tout noted a ‘small-sample mirage’ and pointed out KC’s .270 team average over the last week plus a .303 career mark against Houser. Expecting revenge and the clearly better club, he took the Royals moneyline.