Billy Ward sprinkled Ryan Loder at +320 against Asimad Bekoev, reasoning that Bekoev’s only proven weapon is offensive wrestling—an area where the three-time Division-I All-American could actually hold the edge. Ward reminded listeners Bekoev needed takedowns to squeak past Dylan Budka on the regionals, hardly an encouraging data point, and if he can’t ground Loder the fight turns into an ugly low-level kickboxing match where Ward rates the striking even. He also floated the possibility of Loder using his collegiate ride to smother Bekoev for long stretches. Ward concedes it’s a 'gross big-guy fight' but believes Loder wins more than 25 percent of the time, making +320 mispriced.

Millz Young leaned toward favorite Azamat Bekoev after the line moved further in his direction. Bekoev impressed in a short-notice debut against Zachary Reese and should own the cleaner, harder boxing here. Ryan Loder—the Ultimate Fighter winner with a collegiate wrestling pedigree—certainly has a path if he can replicate a vintage Matt Hughes grind, but Millz questioned whether Loder can chain takedowns for three full rounds or deal with Bekoev early power. Because Bekoev offense fades late, Millz likes a Bekoev money-line play or Bekoev round-1/2 knockout props while advising live-betting Loder if he starts landing takedowns as Bekoev tires.

Matty Betss recommended a small wager on Bogdan Bukov to win by first-round knockout at +650 to +750. Betts thinks Loder’s only path is wrestling, but his striking ‘kinda sucks’ and gives Bukov a clean opportunity to starch him early. He cited Bukov’s two straight KO wins in 2024-25 and reminded listeners that Loder barely survived a first-round rear-naked-choke against Robert Valentin before rallying. Betts also pointed to Bukov’s improvements since his split-decision LFA win over Dylan Budka in 2023, arguing the Uzbek has tightened his hands and carries real power. The moneyline is around –400, so the round-1 KO prop offers far better risk-reward in Betts’s view.

DFS Army backed Azamat Bikoyev at $9,300 and –380 as a high-floor, high-ceiling play against Ryan Loder. Loder’s regional tape shows he needs top control to win, yet Bikoyev is the superior grappler who dumped Zach Reese twice in three minutes before finishing with vicious ground strikes. The tout expects Bikoyev to grind through repeated takedowns, clinch work and attritional damage, noting Loder mustered only four significant strikes in Round 1 of his Contender Series bout and relies on opponents as limited as Roger Valentin. He forecast Bikoyev logging multiple takedowns and extended control that can hit the DraftKings optimal, but views him as slightly less explosive than Robertson, making Bikoyev more of a cash-game anchor and ownership-leverage GPP pivot off similarly priced names like Sandhagen and Mason Jones. Minimal Loder exposure is recommended because the analyst sees “no clear win path” for the underdog.

The Weasle expects violence and is siding with Azamat Bekoev to starch Ryan Loder inside one. Loder will be the longer southpaw and hunts submissions, but his all-gas approach leaves defensive holes. Bekoev keeps a low wrestling base, hand-traps on the fence, then uncorks sledgehammer overhands; The Weasle recalled Bekoev once swinging so hard he fell over, underscoring the raw power. He believes Loder’s blitz entries run directly into that overhand, with Bekoev’s takedown defense preventing the grappling escape hatch. Bet Bekoev KO/TKO in Round 1 or consider under 1.5 rounds.

Jim Malaro also targeted Ryan Loder as a value dog, predicting that Loder will chain takedowns until Bekoev breaks. Malaro compared Loder’s game to Grant Dawson’s—winning first, aesthetics later—and highlighted his Ultimate Fighter semifinal where Loder shot on the opening bell and finished Ballantyne. He questioned Bekoev’s gas tank, saying Foxworth only wilted because he was completely exhausted, and emphasized that Bekoev’s best wins came by decision over regional middling talent. At the current plus-money price Malaro is betting Loder outright and likes the submission/ground-and-pound TKO props for a smaller sprinkle.

Andy Lang declared Ryan Loder one of his favorite underdogs on the card. Lang mocked Bekoev’s 19-3 record as padded—seven fights ago Bekoev was still facing 3-0 or 0-0 competition—and pointed out that Bekoev could not finish low-level journeyman Dylan Budka and needed Chauncey Foxworth to gas before scoring a KO. Loder, meanwhile, showed "prime Chris Weidman"-style blast doubles on The Ultimate Fighter, immediately finishing uber-prospect Robert Ballantyne and demonstrating massive year-over-year improvement. Lang expects Loder’s unapologetic Division-I folkstyle attack to ground Bekoev repeatedly, and he likes the money-line plus sprinkling a Loder-by-finish prop.

Sniper recommended paying up for Azamat Bekoev ($9,300) in cash lineups and keeping him in GPP rotations. He expects Bekoev to neutralize Ryan Loder’s lone win condition—grappling—because the Russian prospect is simply better everywhere the fight goes. Bekoev rag-dolled Zach Reese with two takedowns and a seven-strikes-per-minute barrage before a quick finish, while Loder’s regional win over Robert Valentin required more than three minutes of top control to eke out 42 total strikes. Sniper forecast a rinse-and-repeat clinch-and-takedown assault that drains Loder’s gas tank, opens late finish equity, and delivers the kind of control-time floor ideal for head-to-head or double-ups. With ownership likely flowing toward similarly priced Mason Jones and main-event favorite Cory Sandhagen, Bekoev profiles as both a safe cash piece and an ownership-pivot in large-field play.

Paul Shaughnessy called Ryan Loder a live dog around +330 and circled the decision prop at +600 (and even the split card at +1400) as the best way to attack it. He noted every Azamat Bekoev loss comes when he is out-wrestled, and Loder’s background—four-time NCAA Div-I qualifier who now coaches wrestling at Team Alpha Male—fits that exact profile. Paul expects Loder to recreate the "fluffy Hernandez" template: chain takedowns, force Bekoev to carry his weight along the fence, and bank at least two rounds while the Des Moines crowd chants USA. The hometown optics plus top control should resonate with judges even if Bekoev lands the cleaner strikes. Paul’s lone worry is Loder’s mysterious pull-out from a March bout with Cody Brundage, but he views that as baked into the big price. Betting plan: take the money-line, grab decision at +600, and sprinkle split at +1400 for a judges-sweat payday.

Cody Saftic fired on Ryan Loder at +330, arguing the market underrates his wrestling pedigree and the stylistic cracks in Azamat Bekoev’s game. Loder is a two-time California state champ, four-time NCAA Div-I qualifier at Northern Iowa (114–27 collegiately) and now the wrestling coach at Team Alpha Male, where he drills daily with Song Yadong and Alexander Hernandez. Saftic acknowledged Loder’s striking is raw, but said his chain-wrestling, cardio, and ability to ride positions have already rubbed off on those fighters and will translate here after a year of developmental time since the TUF finale. Bekoev, meanwhile, looks the part of a Russian wrestler yet shows stiff, robotic movement, tiring in a five-round split with Dylan Budka and even surrendering a clean double-leg to Chauncey Foxworth. Every one of Bekoev’s pro losses comes from being out-wrestled, and Saftic doubts his underhook game will stuff Loder’s blast doubles for 15 minutes. On the feet Bekoev’s check left hook can wobble regional opponents, but Saftic noted he needed four attempts to finish Zach Reese and generally does not carry one-shot KO power. With Loder’s Iowa college roots likely earning him crowd support, Saftic sees a grind-heavy decision or late GnP stoppage path that cashes far more than the implied 23%. Recommendation: take the +330 moneyline, sprinkle decision at +600, and consider live-betting Loder after any early scramble that shows Bekoev struggling to stand.

Kunath warned that his early ‘high hopes’ for Ryan Loder evaporated once tape showed the gulf in striking. Bekoev, a 29-year-old ATT prospect coming off a vicious knockout of Zach Reese, owns far cleaner boxing mechanics, heavier hands and a deeper resume despite fewer UFC minutes. Loder’s lone path is chain wrestling, but Bekoev’s camp and his own defensive grappling make takedowns unlikely. Once forced to stand, Loder’s rudimentary striking and willingness to eat shots spells disaster. Kunath predicted a first- or second-round knockout for Bekoev, recommending bettors lay the chalk or attack the KO prop while fading Loder entirely in DFS; Bekoev offers early-finish ceiling and odds-based leverage even at heavy ownership.

MMA Guru backed Azamat Bekoev at roughly –400, projecting the ATT product to out-class Ryan Loder in every phase. He praised Bekoev’s compact, muscular build and scramble strength, referencing Bekoev’s brutal first-round KO of Zachary Reese (followed by the infamous referee ‘people’s elbow’) as proof of finishing power. Guru called the Dagestani 'well-trained and decent everywhere' whereas Loder has mainly beaten undisciplined regional brawlers, nearly getting submitted by Robert Valentin and dropping a split to a fighter named Troy. Once Bekoev forces real MMA exchanges—mixing striking with level changes—Guru expects Loder’s grappling advantage to disappear and his striking defense to crumble. Although he conceded Loder offers some underdog value at +300-plus, Guru ultimately trusts the favorite, recommending Bekoev moneyline or inside-the-distance if the price is playable.

Bedtime MMA leaned Ryan Loder in a mild upset over Azamat Bekoev. Bekoev just starched Zach Rees, so a KO pick would be obvious, but Loder reminds the tout of Andre Petroski: grindy, durable, and positionally sound. Loder’s recent run includes mauling Robert Valentin, proving he can secure takedowns and finish with ground-and-pound. The analyst envisions Loder surviving early striking heat, chaining doubles, and either riding out a decision or pounding Bekoev out late.

Jeff Fox recommended backing Azamat Bekoev at –370, arguing that an LFA belt means far more in 2024 than a TUF trophy. Bekoev is 19-3 overall, has not tasted defeat since September 2021, and just out-landed Zach Reese by 6.01 significant strikes per minute in his octagon debut. Loder, meanwhile, is 7-1 but looked pedestrian on TUF, mixes in little offensive boxing, and owns only a single UFC win— the "Juliana Miller special" over another TUF finalist. Fox pointed out that even Holly Holm managed four takedowns on Loder’s teammate Yana Santos, illustrating how shaky the TUF crew’s wrestling can be. With Bekoev younger, more active (3.96 landed per minute to Loder’s 2.4), and the far better finisher (15 of 19 wins inside the distance), Fox is comfortable parlaying the Russian or sprinkling KO/TKO props.

Daniel Gumby Vreeland said to lay the –370 on Azamat Bekoev because the former LFA middleweight champ checks every box Ryan Loder does not. Vreeland noted Loder’s game has stalled since his regional days— he still relies almost exclusively on single-leg attempts and landed just 1-of-3 takedowns on Robert Valentin in The Ultimate Fighter finale. By comparison, Bekoev rag-dolled Zachary Reese and owns seven knockouts, eight submissions, and a +2.61 significant-strike differential in his brief UFC sample. Gumby added that Bekoev is four years younger, carries legitimate one-punch power, and has slick counter wrestling that neutralizes Loder’s only path. With Bekoev riding a seven-fight win streak and having not lost since 2021, Vreeland expects him to stuff early shots, punish Loder on the feet, and either bank dominant minutes or find a late finish, making the money-line favorite and inside-the-distance props worthwhile.