Lonte Smith is pounding Padres +1.5 at even money and sprinkling first-five and full-game moneylines. He reminded listeners that the Dodgers have taken four of five in 2025 but three wins were by multiple runs, which explains the generous price. Still, Yoshinobu Yamamoto looks mortal lately—nine earned runs and ten walks across three June starts, all at home—and has been pulled before five innings in two of those. Conversly, Michael Berger’s soft-contact profile has held opponents to five earned runs over his first 15 MLB innings and only four total hits in his last two outings. Smith expects a playoff-like atmosphere, believes San Diego’s lineup will grind down a shaky Dodgers middle relief corps once Yamamoto exits, and calls the run-line plus price ‘stealing.’ He will have heavier exposure on the +1.5 but likes the dog across the board.

Scott Reichel grabbed the Padres at +205, insisting the number is absurd given Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s home struggles. The Dodger ace owns an ERA almost two runs higher at Chavez Ravine than on the road and has issued a season-high five walks in his last start. Meanwhile San Diego’s rookie Michael Berger has allowed only four hits combined in his last two outings and all three of his starts have come on the road, so the big-stage environment should not rattle him. Reichel added that despite Los Angeles winning four of five in the season series, three of those victories were by exactly two runs, so the gap is tighter than the market suggests. With rivalry intensity high and Yamamoto trending down (0-2 in June, 10 earned runs over his last three home appearances), Reichel sees value in both the moneyline and the +1.5 run line but is officially logging the outright upset.

Kenny G said the +205 moneyline on San Diego is juicy enough to warrant a sprinkle despite Los Angeles looking to finish a sweep. His case: rookie Ryan Burgert owns a 2.33 ERA and has already stifled Milwaukee and San Francisco, while Yoshinobu Yamamoto is in a textbook bounce-back spot but hasn’t faced the Pads yet and comes off his worst start (5 ER in 4.2 IP). Kenny trusts the Padres’ sixth-ranked bullpen (3.27 ERA) far more than the Dodgers’ 4.09 unit that has blown six leads in June. Offensively L.A. is a juggernaut—first in every major category—but San Diego’s issue has been power, not table-setting; they’re still 15th in average and have manufactured enough traffic to steal games when the opponent pen wobbles. With rivalry motivation, avoidance of a sweep, and a live arm in Burgert, Kenny prices the Friars closer to +175 and will back them down to +195.

Kenny G recommended a sprinkle on the Padres at +150, arguing the matchup tilts toward the dog more than the price suggests. Los Angeles turns to Emmet Sheehan, who is coming off the 60-day IL and making his first big-league start since 2023, so Kenny doubts the 25-year-old will be sharp or work deep. That hands innings to a Dodgers bullpen that sits 22nd with a 4.03 ERA. San Diego counters with Stephen Kolek (3-2, 3.50 ERA); he was roughed up in Arizona but has generally kept the club in games and can hand things to MLB’s fourth-best relief corps. The Padres offense is cold (18th in runs, 22nd in SLG, and Jackson Merrill on the concussion IL), yet Kenny believes a competent start plus a bullpen edge can overcome LA’s elite lineup. Dodger Stadium trends point to shootouts—24-12-1 to the over at home—which Kenny views as further evidence that LA pitching is vulnerable. Given the uncertainties around Sheehan and the shaky pen, Kenny prefers the juicy plus money on San Diego to laying –178 with the Dodgers.

Lindquist leaned toward the Dodgers moneyline even with Dylan Cease on the hill for San Diego after Cease dominated L.A. at Petco last week. He trusts the Dodgers’ elite offense more in the rematch at Chavez Ravine and noted rookie right-hander ‘Gasparious’ (Gavin Stone’s spot) has quietly earned his rotation turn with a 29.5 % hard-hit rate, sub-5 % walk rate and 26 % K-rate. Lindquist thinks Cease’s slider-heavy approach is less scary the second time through in a week and prefers backing the deeper Dodgers lineup at home at anything near a pick-em price.

Just A Bet Outside warned bettors not to chase Shohei Ohtani strikeout or outs props in his first MLB appearance on the mound since August 23, 2023. Dave Roberts has publicly stated Ohtani will be used strictly as an opener, and the tout projects no more than two innings (roughly 35–40 pitches). With such a limited workload, any traditional pitcher markets—Ks, outs recorded, or win odds—are heavily capped. He recommends passing on all Ohtani pitcher props and fading DFS ownership, treating the two-way star as nothing more than a novelty arm in this spot.

Scott Reichel laid the –1.5 run line with the Dodgers, calling it a classic regression spot for Dylan Cease. Cease is winless on the road (0-3, 5.65 ERA) and has allowed at least three earned in each of his last three away starts. Although he blanked L.A. last week, Reichel pointed to Cease’s five walks that outing and the tendency for hitters to adjust in a quick rematch. Los Angeles averages a league-best 6.22 runs per game at Chavez Ravine and owns a 27-9 home record, while San Diego has dropped seven of ten and just suffered a bullpen implosion Sunday. Even if L.A. opts for a bullpen game, Reichel trusts its deeper relief corps and elite lineup to win comfortably, pricing Dodgers –1.5 at –110 as value.

Kenny G said he would "ever-so-slightly" back the plus-130 Padres because the matchup and price both tilt in San Diego’s favor. Dylan Cease just blanked the Dodgers for seven innings (3 H, 0 R, 11 K) and has posted a 2.95 ERA over his last six starts after ironing out early-season command issues. The Padres also bring the No. 6 bullpen in baseball (3.21 ERA), while Los Angeles is running out a relief corps with a 4.08 ERA that Kenny called "flat-out shaky." Shohei Ohtani is an electric storyline, but this will be his first mound appearance of 2025, and Kenny doubts Dave Roberts lets him go deeper than 4–5 innings, potentially exposing that weak pen. Factor in a San Diego lineup that is mediocre (22nd in runs, 24th in SLG) yet still draws a park upgrade at Dodger Stadium, Kenny believes the gap between these clubs is smaller than the price and is willing to grab the juicy underdog moneyline rather than lay –155 with an L.A. team whose pitching plan is full of question marks.