Guy Boston backed the Padres at –125 and leaned UNDER 7 in San Diego–San Francisco. He raved about Michael King’s home splits—2.18 ERA, 0.66 WHIP, 36.9 % strike-out rate, .158 opponents’ average and a sparkling 1.93 FIP at Petco. Although the Giants lead MLB in walk rate versus right-handers over the last month, Boston still trusts King’s swing-and-miss arsenal. He respects Keaton Winn-Rupp (pronunciation approximate) on the other side but views him as a clear tier below King. Both bullpens grade top-10 in ERA and Stuff+ this year, justifying the low total. Boston projected a 5–3 or 4–2 type game and suggested a first-five UNDER 4.5 at roughly –155 for those uncomfortable paying juice on the full-game number.

Cash Out Sports Picks recommended backing San Diego at home. The analyst noted the Padres are 13-4 in Petco Park and just knocked elite arm Logan Webb around for nine hits. Tonight they draw rookie Landon Roop, who sports a 4.56 ERA and was tagged for five runs in 3.2 IP last start. San Diego’s bats are heating up (.257 team average, 4th in MLB) and they upgrade on the mound with Michael King, fresh off a one-run outing against Tampa Bay. With both bullpens ranking among the league’s best, the handicapper expects Roop’s vulnerability to be the difference and laid the moneyline with the Friars.

Malcolm Bamford pounced on San Diego –130, pointing to Michael King’s spotless Petco resume: three home starts, three combined shutouts, and a 0.00 ERA in those outings. King also sports a lifetime 2.41 ERA versus San Francisco. On the other side, rookie Landen Roupp has been tagged for three and four earned in consecutive road turns at Philadelphia and Houston, pushing his away ERA north of 5.00 with eight free passes. Bamford sees Padres bats due for positive regression—ranking top-10 in hard-hit rate yet sitting near league average in runs—and trusts baseball’s best bullpen (2.31 ERA) to close the door. He made San Diego –150, calling the current price a gift.

Kenny G recommended backing San Diego at –135, citing a clear edge on the mound with Michael King. King is 3-1 with a 2.18 ERA and has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of five starts, highlighted by a complete-game two-hitter at Coors Field. The Padres complement him with the best bullpen ERA in baseball, giving San Diego late-inning security. Opposing starter Landon Rupp (2-1, 4.56 ERA) is coming off a rough 3.2-inning, 5-run outing versus Milwaukee, and Kenny doubts he rebounds against a Padres lineup still fourth in batting average despite a recent slump. The Giants’ bats have cooled to 23rd in average and 20th in slugging, and while their bullpen is also elite, Kenny trusts King plus San Diego’s 12-4 home record to prevail. He passed on the 7/7.5 total and made the Padres moneyline his official play.

Brian Howard recommended finding every reasonable way to get money on the Padres—full-game moneyline, first five, or inclusion in parlays—thanks to Michael King’s edge over Giants rookie Landen Roupp. Howard likes King’s deep pitch mix and recent strikeout ability (nine punch-outs versus a low-K Rays lineup two starts ago). Roupp, by contrast, just surrendered five earned in 3.2 innings to Milwaukee and, in Brian’s words, now looks "there for the taking." He also prefers San Diego’s lineup depth over San Francisco’s, especially in a game with a low seven-run total where a single crooked inning could decide it.

Romanelli likes the under because Landen Roupp (SF) and Michael King (SD) have both been flashing quality-start form, and each club’s bullpen has been outperforming its offense lately. With neither lineup hitting and Petco’s pitcher-friendly dimensions, Ron expects a low-scoring affair.

Lindquist ran back the First-Five Under 3.5 in Giants-Padres, calling it a gift at –105. He’s obsessed with Padres right-hander Michael King (2.69 xwOBA) and believes Giants rookie Landen Roupp’s 26.8 % hard-hit rate profiles like a future ace. Even with the rematch being a daytime game at Petco, he projects fewer than three combined first-five runs because both pitchers generate grounders and miss enough bats to suppress one-swing damage. He advised viewers to ignore bullpens and stick to the F5 market to “just stay quiet.”

Eric Pathi advised betting the San Francisco Giants at roughly +115 for their April 30 matchup in San Diego. Pathy pointed out that after one month the Giants are MLB’s single most profitable club, netting backers $645 on a flat one-unit wager in all 29 games. He contrasted that with the Dodgers, who own the same 19-10 record but have actually lost bettors money because they are never priced as underdogs. Pathy stressed that long-term MLB profitability requires playing teams that are occasionally plus-money; the Giants fit that profile, going 6-5 as dogs and 12-5 as favorites. He added that league-wide favorites are winning 60.8% yet still bleeding bankroll, underscoring the value on short dogs like San Francisco in this spot.

Drew Martin backed the Padres -125 on the getaway-day matinee largely because of Michael King. The 29-year-old right-hander owns a 2.10 ERA, a 40-to-11 K/BB rate, and his only loss came when an unearned run beat him. Martin argued that gives San Diego a sizeable starting-pitching edge over Landen Roupp (4.50 ERA). He added Petco’s mild 63-degree conditions and a rested Padres bullpen as positives and noted that, while San Diego’s lineup has been cold, he refuses to fade King at home in an early start. List King, lay the short price, and trust the superior arm and relief unit.

Javan Shouey bet Michael King to record over 6.5 strikeouts at -129 odds on Caesars, playable to -140. Shouey pointed out that San Francisco owns the 9th-highest K-rate versus righties overall (22.7%) and the 4th-worst mark on the road (26.7%). King’s strikeout production spikes at Petco Park: last season he punched out 109 batters in 78.2 home innings compared with just 92 Ks in 95 road frames. San Diego is giving him a long leash—he has topped 100 pitches twice this month, including a 110-pitch shutout of Colorado. He has logged 7+ strikeouts in 4 of his 5 April starts and in 14 of his last 20 home starts dating back to 2024. All of those factors led Shouey to back the over in Wednesday’s matchup with the Giants.

Peterson laid the short -128 price with San Diego because Michael King has been one of baseball’s most efficient arms (2.18 ERA, ≤3 ER in all six outings, 10.8 K/9). Behind him is a bullpen that entered the week with an MLB-best 1.61 ERA, giving the Padres a massive late-inning edge. Giants rookie Landon Roupp matches King’s strikeout rate (10.9 K/9) but lives on the edges: a 4.56 ERA driven by 1.1 HR/9 and 3.9 BB/9. Peterson power-rated the game at Padres -146, seeing more than 15 cents of value on the Friars.

Pisapia’s second wager is the Padres moneyline against San Francisco with Nick Pivetta drawing Logan Webb. Joe acknowledged Webb’s sub-2.00 ERA but prefers the home side because Pivetta has been "brilliant" to start 2025 – 1.00 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, and a 28 % strikeout rate through his first four Padres outings – and Petco Park neutralizes the Giants’ limited power. He expects San Diego’s right-heavy lineup (Tatis, Machado, Campusano) to scratch out enough support against Webb’s declining ground-ball rate (down to 49 % from 57 % last year). With the Padres available near even money, Joe labeled it his favorite side play of the slate.

He’s on the Padres money line, citing San Diego’s 2.92 team ERA (2nd in MLB) and Nick Bivetta’s sparkling 4-1 record with a 1.20 ERA. The Friars swept the Giants in their last series, tossing two shutouts and holding San Francisco to three runs or fewer in each contest. Offensively San Diego still owns a .264 team average (top-tier) while the Giants sit bottom half. Given that history and staff strength, the tout backed the home side.

Lindquist is running back the first-five-innings under, this time betting Under 3.5 (–110) between Nick Pivetta and Logan Webb at Petco. Webb’s ground-ball heavy arsenal remains elite, while Pivetta’s move to San Diego has unlocked a 2.79 expected ERA despite just a 27 % K-rate; only one homer has left the yard against him all year. Lindquist added that Petco is still in its marine-layer, April mode, making it one of Tuesday’s least power-friendly parks. San Francisco’s lineup features just three hitters over a .410 expected slugging and leans on walks and baserunning rather than raw pop. With both starters in form and the park suppressing offense, Lindquist expects a slow first half and would play the F5 under down to –120.

Malcolm Bamford happily grabbed San Diego at +110, labelling the price "insane" given how evenly matched these clubs are. While Logan Webb’s name usually forces a low total (six-and-a-half), Bamford noted the Giants’ bizarre reliance on walk-offs—five of their nine home wins have come via last-swing chaos, including Sunday’s inside-the-park stumblefest by Heliot Ramos—and questioned how sustainable that is. Webb is elite at Oracle but still beatable on the road (3.13 ERA, 1.28 WHIP in four away starts). Nick Pivetta has quietly allowed one earned run across his last three outings as a Padre, posting a 32% K-rate since overhauling his slider usage. Supporting numbers nudge toward San Diego: both clubs trend under versus righties (Giants 10-9, Padres 10-8), but the Padres have a top-five bullpen xFIP over the past two weeks and an OPS 46 points higher than San Francisco against sliders—the pitch Webb throws 37% of the time. Bamford projects a 4-3 Padres win and considers the plus-money an auto-take.

Despite backing San Diego, Peterson also played Over 6.5, projecting 7.3 runs. He believes Petco’s run environment is creeping toward league average and expects the Giants to scratch a few against the Padres’ middle relievers once Pivetta exits. Meanwhile, San Diego’s offense should take advantage of Webb’s road regression. With both lineups in respectable recent form, he calls 6.5 an overcorrection.

With Nick Pivetta (1.20 ERA) and Logan Webb (1.98 ERA) squaring off, Data Skrive’s simulations anticipate a pitcher’s duel that ends 4-3 in favor of San Diego. That result produces two actionable angles: Padres moneyline at +110 and an under 6.5 total. The model is effectively betting on Pivetta’s early-season strikeout surge (11.3 K/9) offsetting the Giants’ home-field edge while the Padres’ bullpen—top-5 in WAR to this point—closes the door late. Because the algorithm’s median run total is a full run below the market number, the under is flagged as an added edge.

Peterson fired on Padres +115, pricing them at -132. Nick Pivetta is in career-best form (1.20 ERA, 2.18 FIP, just 2.1 BB/9) and is backed by MLB’s stingiest bullpen (1.61 ERA). Logan Webb’s chronic road woes (4.03 away ERA vs 2.69 at Oracle) tilt the starting matchup further. With San Diego’s pen and Pivetta’s precision, Peterson sees clear value on the Friars.