Just A Bet Outside flagged Logan Gilbert’s trip to Camden Yards as a buy spot on strike-out props. Baltimore owns the eighth-highest K-rate against right-handers the past three weeks (23.8%). Gilbert has been electric since coming off the IL, stacking 118 strikeouts in only 83.1 innings and recording at least seven Ks in seven of his last ten starts. His road strike-out rate (30.9%) is still elite even though it trails his gaudy 38.1% mark at T-Mobile Park, and he carries a still-ridiculous 32.5% K rate to lefties—Baltimore’s roster skews left-handed. The tout projects Gilbert for 7–9 punch-outs and likes the over as well as alt-K ladders for DFS and betting.

Perrault played Under 8.5 (–110) in Mariners–Orioles, citing elite pitching and weak bats. Seattle is riding an eight-game win streak but faces left-hander Trevor Rogers, who sports a microscopic 0.42 ERA and .086 opponent average in 21.2 home innings. Logan Gilbert has limited foes to two earned runs or fewer in three of his last four road outings and owns a sub-3.00 road ERA since July. Baltimore’s offense is in a funk, scoring only seven total runs during its current three-game skid and ranking bottom-10 in OPS over the past two weeks. Perrault expects a 4-1 or 4-2 type Mariners victory and prefers the total to laying –140 on Seattle because Rogers has the stuff to keep the M’s lineup in check.

Kenny G said the only plays he is interested in for Baltimore’s series opener are the no-run-first-inning and the under 8.5. Camden Yards has produced a 30-25-2 home O/U record, but he is fading that trend because both starting pitchers have kept hard contact down and neither bullpen has been overworked the past three days. Baltimore is just 28-29 at home, yet Kenny still gives a slight lean to the Orioles at +118, believing their lineup will scratch out just enough against an opponent whose own bats travel poorly. His core handicap, however, is that "offense will be at a premium," making the NRFI and full-game under the stronger, actionable bets.

While the totals are his primary angle, Kenny G is willing to take a small shot on Baltimore at +118. Trevor Rogers has held opponents to one run or fewer in six straight starts, and the Mariners’ lineup remains streaky despite an eight-game win streak. Baltimore is 28-29 at home and badly needs a win after dropping six of eight; Kenny thinks the ace-level starter plus home field justifies a light wager.

Bill Harrelson called Rowdy Tellez over 0.5 total bases his favorite play of the slate. Tellez has recorded at least one total base in nine consecutive games and 15 of his last 20 (75%). After a sluggish start he has cleared the mark in roughly 60% of his past 55 games and 35 of 61 on the season. Harrelson pointed to a favorable platoon setup: the right-handed opposing starter gives up a .256 average to lefties versus .241 overall, while Tellez hits .234 against righties compared to .223 on the year. With three to four expected plate appearances and recent hard-contact surge—including a five-base outing against Arizona two days ago—Harrelson likes pairing this over with other props on Underdog or PrizePicks.

Jay Yang said backing the Miami Marlins with Junk on the mound is the play. Junk has posted a sub-3.00 ERA over his last five starts and has allowed two runs or fewer in four of those outings. His walk rate has dropped markedly during that stretch, and his slider/change-up mix is producing a high chase rate and weak contact, giving him one of the lowest batting averages allowed with runners in scoring position on the staff. Yang highlighted that Cleveland’s OPS nosedives against right-handed pitching and their recent run production versus righties is trending down. On the flip side, Logan Allen sports an inflated WHIP and struggles once runners reach base, a bad recipe against a Marlins middle order that has been making louder contact of late. With Miami’s bullpen currently in decent form, Yang believes the Fish hold edges in both the starting matchup and the late innings. He advised taking the Marlins moneyline, stressing bettors should play only with both listed pitchers confirmed.

Eric Pathy advised grabbing the Orioles as short home underdogs against Seattle, calling it a textbook application of his season-long "bet every home dog" system. Pathy laid out the math behind the edge: through 1,753 MLB games, underdogs overall are 753-1,000 (43% win rate), but home dogs improve to 287-326 (47%). Because those wins come at plus money, the 4-point bump turns a blanket underdog strategy from modestly profitable to clearly positive EV. He emphasized that even a seven-game Mariner winning streak and a West-to-East road trip do not offset the historical edge, and he dismissed individual pitcher impact, noting favorites win only 57% league-wide despite perceived mound advantages. With Dean Kremer starting and the overnight line sitting around +110 to +120, Pathy labeled Baltimore the complementary play of the day and a live bankroll builder for bettors following the system.

B Wade likes Gunnar Henderson over 1.5 hits+runs+RBIs. Henderson has cashed this prop in 13 of his last 20 games, typically stringing together multi-game over streaks after brief misses; he just fell short but still logged a base hit, signaling his swing remains locked-in. Historically he torches the Mariners, averaging nearly three combined HRR per contest and hitting the over in 7 of 9 meetings. The individual matchup is even better: versus George Kirby he owns a .462 average (6-for-13) with a homer across roughly five career matchups. Kirby has held opponents under six hits in eight of his last nine starts overall, yet Baltimore accounted for the one blow-up—eight hits, his season-high. Wade expects the Orioles’ lineup to get to Kirby again, positioning Henderson as the focal point for player-prop parlays.

Kenny G said to back the Mariners at -155 because every arrow points their way. Seattle has rattled off seven straight wins and is only one game behind Houston, so motivation is sky-high. George Kirby has strung together three quality starts (6 IP 2 ER vs White Sox, 6 IP 1 ER vs Rangers, 7 IP 1 ER vs Angels) and owns a 4.04 ERA for the season, while Baltimore counters with Dean Kremer, whose last four outings have all ended in Orioles losses and who even struggled versus the light-hitting Rockies. Kenny noted the Orioles bullpen has been a mess all year, whereas Seattle’s pen has held steady. Offensively the M’s are suddenly dangerous—10th in MLB in both runs scored and slugging, averaging 6.0 runs during the win streak—while Baltimore ranks 22nd in AVG and 24th in OBP, scoring three runs or fewer in five of the last six. He mentioned the total (9.5) leans over given both clubs’ strong over records at their respective venues, but his actionable play is Mariners moneyline, trusting Kirby and the hotter bats to extend the streak against a fading Orioles squad.

Eric Lindquist flagged Josh Naylor as a plus-400 home-run target against Dean Kremer in Camden Yards. Lindquist likes the classic lefty-pull power fit here: Kremer is carrying a 200-plus expected ISO to left-handed bats while Naylor owns a .256 ISO and 45 % hard-hit rate versus righties this season. Camden’s new wall still funnels right-center shots but remains one of the top five AL parks for left-handed pull power. With the weather forecast showing neutral winds and Cleveland projected for 4.7 runs, Lindquist expects one or two premium mid-90s four-seam fastballs in Naylor’s happy zone and is willing to fire on the long price.

It’s The Final Round highlighted Julio Rodriguez as the right-handed stick to pair with Naylor against Dean Kramer. While Kramer holds righties to a middling .249 average, Rodriguez is tearing it up: .320 over the last week (8 hits, 3 HR, 6 RBI, 6 runs in six games). He has also punished Kramer historically – 5 hits in 8 at-bats (three singles, a double, and a homer) for a .625 average. Outlier projects a 75 % chance of at least one hit (-400), 45 % to notch 2+ total bases (-115 after six of his last eight games cleared), and 68 % to top 2+ hits + runs + RBI (-185). Home-run likelihood mirrors Naylor at 17 % with a +425 line. Jordan prefers the hits-runs-RBI prop and suggests parlaying it with Naylor’s numbers for a juicier ticket.

It’s The Final Round said Josh Naylor is the left-handed bat to attack Dean Kramer with on Tuesday. Kramer has surrendered a .270 average to lefties for the season and a .311 mark across his last two starts. Naylor enters the matchup scorching: .291 against right-handed pitching on the year and .500 (7-for-14) over the past five games with three homers, five RBI, and six runs. The history is just as loud – 6 hits in 9 career at-bats off Kramer (four singles, one double, one homer) for a .667 clip. Outlier’s model gives Naylor an 80 % chance to record a hit (-310), a 53 % chance to reach 2+ total bases (+105), and a 68 % chance to clear 2+ hits + runs + RBI (-165). Home-run probability is 17 % at +475. Jordan suggested using the 2+ total bases or the hits-runs-RBI prop straight, or pairing Naylor in a parlay with the other highlighted hitters for plus money.