The host flagged Jesus Luzardo as a potential K-prop smash spot. Seattle owns the fifth-highest strike-out rate (24.2%) over the last three weeks, while Luzardo has fanned 158 hitters in 139 innings and is sitting on a monster 37.2% K-rate against left-handed bats. He has alternated strikeout totals of 7-4-7-4-7 across his last five outings and has worked six or more innings in four straight, giving him the leash needed to clear most posted numbers. Stephen advised checking the opening line and leaning over 6.5 Ks if books hang it at plus money.

Just A Bet Outside pointed to Kyle Schwarber’s long-term dominance of Luis Castillo—6-for-20 with four home runs—and the fact Schwarber already left the yard in Tuesday’s series opener. Stephen noted that Seattle is running Castillo back out on normal rest, giving Schwarber another crack at a pitcher he clearly sees well. With the Phillies remaining in hitter-friendly T-Mobile Park for a matinee and Schwarber’s .322 ISO versus right-handed four-seamers (Castillo’s primary pitch), the host suggested leaning toward a home-run or total-bases over in both DFS and betting markets.

Drew Martin laid the -135 with Philadelphia in the early getaway game. He highlighted Seattle’s cold stretch—four straight losses and six of seven—plus Luis Castillo’s latest blow-up (six earned, nine hits, three homers versus the Mets) and his shaky road splits in a hitter-friendly park. Opposite him, Jesus Lazardo has won four of his last five decisions, lowered his ERA to 4.20, and shown revived velocity. Martin added that the Phillies have won three in a row and their bullpen has quietly turned a corner, so he believes the current 35-cent tax is light given the form mismatch and home-field edge.

Cash Out Sports Picks took the Seattle Mariners money line at Citizens Bank Park. Philadelphia has won three straight and plated 29 runs in that stretch, but the tout prefers Luis Castillo, who has surrendered two or fewer earned in three of his last four starts. Opposing left-hander Jesus Luzardo has been touched for at least three earned in three of five, and Seattle hitters own a .339 average in 66 PA against him. Castillo’s 4.92 road ERA is noted, yet Luzardo’s 5.23 home ERA plus a shaky Phillies bullpen tilt the matchup toward Seattle at plus money.

Bill Harrelson recommended playing Nick Castellanos for less than 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs on PrizePicks. Castellanos has failed to clear that number in 8 of his last 10 games and in 11 of his last 20 overall, including an 0-for-4 showing yesterday. Harrelson highlighted that the outfielder has stayed under in four of his last five meetings with Seattle and carries only a 46 % season-long hit rate on this combo prop. The matchup is even tougher Wednesday: Luis Castillo is holding opponents to a .248 average and right-handed batters to just .211. With Castellanos mired in a slump and facing a pitcher who neutralizes righties, Harrelson sees the under as the clear side.

Kenny G leaned to Philadelphia at -140, noting Seattle has dropped four straight and six of seven while its offense has produced just 4, 7, 3, 1, 1, and 3 runs over the past six contests. Luis Castillo (8-6, 3.48 ERA) was rocked for six earned in four innings by the Mets last outing and has been "hit-or-miss" down the stretch. The Phillies give the ball to Hazelous Lazardo (11-6, 4.21 ERA), who just logged six frames of three-run ball with seven strikeouts versus Washington and has been "consistently fine" over his last five turns. Kenny conceded Philly’s bullpen (4.06 ERA) remains a concern but stressed the club is 37-21 at Citizens Bank Park and top-10 in batting average, runs, and slugging. He framed the pick as a lighter play—"probably not pinned-comment worthy"—yet still preferable to backing the skidding Mariners.

Chris Ruffolo backed the Phillies on the moneyline against Seattle, even with Logan Gilbert toeing the slab. Philadelphia is 42-17 at Citizens Bank Park and averaging 5.6 runs per game at home. Seattle is flying across the country after Sunday night’s Little League Classic in Williamsport—a spot Ruffolo called a classic flat angle. He respects Gilbert’s talent but stressed that the right-hander’s ERA jumps from 2.37 at T-Mobile to 3.89 on the road. Ranger Suarez, meanwhile, owns a 1.98 ERA in South Philly and profiles well against a Mariners lineup that ranks bottom-10 in wRC+ versus lefties. Ruffolo labeled the Phils his favorite play of the slate.

Kenny G said he is laying the juice with Seattle at -110 because every matchup angle tilts their way. He pointed out that Logan Gilbert has steadily improved since returning from the IL and is simply “a way better starter” than Ranger Suarez, who just surrendered 10 hits and six earned to Cincinnati and was rocked by Baltimore in his prior turn. Seattle’s relief corps owns a 3.66 ERA compared to Philadelphia’s 4.21, giving the M’s a pronounced late-inning edge. Offensively the Mariners have transformed into a top-10 run-scoring unit while the Phillies remain wildly inconsistent, posting run totals of 11-0-2-6-2-0-1-4 in recent games. Kenny added that Seattle’s offense “might be more reliable, if not just straight up better,” and he trusts them despite the club’s 500 road record. With Gilbert’s form, a superior bullpen, and a lineup he considers more bankable, Kenny advised taking Seattle on the moneyline.

Kenny G urged DFS players to lock in Logan Gilbert against Philadelphia. Gilbert owns a 3.31 ERA and is coming off 6.1 frames of two-run ball with six strikeouts versus Baltimore. Kenny noted that his velocity and command have ticked up each start since returning from the injured list and Seattle’s bullpen offers a tidy 3.66 ERA behind him. The Phillies have been held to three runs or fewer in four of their last seven and strike out at a 24% clip against right-handers, creating what Kenny called a ‘very good time’ matchup. He views Gilbert as a ceiling play in tournaments and said he would back Seattle on the moneyline if books hang anything in the +120 range.