Kenny G said he is fading Miles Mikolas and laying the –130 money-line with Tampa Bay. Mikolas is 6-9 with a 4.99 ERA and just walked five while striking out only one in his most recent outing against the Yankees. He has also been hit hard by Colorado and Los Angeles this month and owns a 14:12 K:BB in August. Kenny pointed out that the Cardinals offense has cratered—ranking 24th in runs and producing four or fewer in five of their last six—so Mikolas is unlikely to get much support. On the other side, Adrian Hauser is 6-4 with a 2.67 ERA since joining the Rays and is coming off a five-inning, six-strikeout shutout of the Giants. Tampa’s bullpen remains top-10, giving them a cushion even if Hauser only goes five. With the starting-pitching edge, a competent bullpen, and St. Louis’ bats still dormant, Kenny feels the small price on the Rays is worth paying and would consider the play strong enough to pin in the comments.

Lindquist labeled Brandon Lowe a “must-bet” home-run target at anything better than +275. Miles Mikolas carries a .225 expected ISO versus lefties, and the venue (which Lindquist calls a ‘AAA ballpark’) ranks top-5 for left-handed homers per Baseball Savant park factors. Lowe’s spot in the order is secure as long as he avoids the DH role after Yandy Diaz left Thursday’s game injured, and Adrian Houser looming in long relief gives a second exploitable arm. Weather looks normal by Tampa standards—no roof worries—so Lowe’s pull-side power should play.