The Bettor Mark bet under 39 in the Steelers’ Week 1 game, citing "a lot of injury news" that should stifle scoring. Even with Aaron Rodgers involved, he expects a sluggish contest and sees value on the low total.

Just A Bet Outside played Justin Fields under 27.5 pass attempts (-114 FanDuel). Fields stayed below this mark in 4-of-6 starts last season, and the tout expects even fewer plays in 2025 because: 1) new OC wants a run-centric, methodical attack, 2) Jets intend to lean on Breece Hall behind a strong defense, 3) limited receiving corps beyond Garrett Wilson forces Fields to run after his first read. Pittsburgh’s pass rush (T.J. Watt) can create sacks that wipe out attempts. With the spread near a pick’em and total low, a blow-out script that would force volume is unlikely. The handicap concedes risk if the Steelers jump out early, but trusts a grind-it-out game flow for a half-unit under.

Joyner backed Pittsburgh at ‑3 (confidence 6 SU, 4 ATS) because Arthur Smith now has the personnel his playbook demands: Aaron Rodgers, ninth in stretch-vertical PPG last year, plus D.K. Metcalf outside and a Jonnu Smith/Pat Freiermuth tight-end combo inside. The Steelers line is elite and the Kaleb Johnson-Jaylen Warren backfield gives balance. New York’s run-first blueprint with Breece Hall and Braelon Allen mirrors Detroit’s, yet quarterback Justin Fields ranked 29th or worse in PPG at every route depth. Joyner sees that aerial limitation as the deciding factor.

Ian Hanford laid Steelers –3, trusting Pittsburgh’s defensive blueprint versus Justin Fields. He cited the Steelers’ cornerback depth to bracket Garrett Wilson and linebacking speed to keep Fields contained. While acknowledging both offenses may start slowly, Hanford expects Mike Tomlin’s game-planning acumen to tilt a defensive struggle and sees a typical Steelers 17-10 style win that covers the short road number.

Gary Davenport snagged Jets +3, calling for an ugly, low-scoring opener. He highlighted the mystery surrounding Pittsburgh’s new Aaron Rodgers offense—Mike Tomlin sat Rodgers and DK Metcalf all preseason—versus a Jets unit that at least showed its hand with Justin Fields. Anticipating early rust from the Steelers and typical Jet chaos, Davenport prefers the field goal cushion at home in what he projects as a grind-it-out affair.

Tafur laid the field goal with Pittsburgh, arguing the Steelers know every Justin Fields limitation after last season’s practices and believe Mike Tomlin will dial up pressures and spies to keep him from freelancing. The Jets just lost RG Alijah Vera-Tucker to a serious arm injury, further tilting the trenches toward T.J. Watt and company.

Mason Cameron said the over 2.5 receptions at +120 for Calvin Austin III is one of his favorite Week 1 props. Cameron highlighted Austin’s torrid close to 2024—he generated a 142.8 passer rating when targeted (fifth-best in the league) and hauled in 80 percent of his contested looks—showing a well-rounded game that goes beyond pure speed. New Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers publicly praised Austin’s burst and toughness, a signal to Cameron that the veteran already trusts him. The real kicker is the matchup: Austin will run most of his routes from the slot against Jets nickel Michael Carter II, whose 47.9 PFF coverage grade ranked 68th of 72 qualifying slot corners last season. With a clear individual advantage and early chemistry with Rodgers, Cameron expects at least three catches, making the plus-money over attractive.

MacMillan laid -2.5 with Pittsburgh, saying he "can’t imagine" Justin Fields keeping the Jets competitive versus a competent opponent. He likes the Steelers’ facelift—Aaron Rodgers’ late-season bounce-back and the addition of DK Metcalf—plus trusts Mike Tomlin, who has intimate knowledge of Fields’ tendencies from their shared Steelers past. Anything under a field goal is, in his words, worth grabbing.

Eric Polzin recommended locking in the Steelers DST for Week 1 tournaments and cash builds. He argued New York is "intentionally trying to tank," highlighted Justin Fields’ poor camp and turnover-prone profile, and pointed out that Pittsburgh’s defense carries its usual talent edge. With Aaron Rodgers expected to manage the game on the other side and no bruising Jets run game to shorten drives, Polzin anticipates extra sack and takeaway opportunities for the Steelers at what should be a mid-tier salary.

Mike Fanelli recommended drafting Chris Boswell for an immediate scoring punch. Boswell was the overall K1 last season, posting 10.8 fantasy points per game and becoming one of only three kickers to average double digits in more than five contests. He has converted at least 90 percent of his field-goal attempts in five of the past six years, giving drafters rare reliability. Pittsburgh’s Week 1 opponent, the New York Jets, surrendered 10.6 fantasy points per game to kickers in 2024, including 13 to Boswell himself in Week 7. Fanelli expects an improved Steelers passing attack to keep Boswell inside the 40 repeatedly, making him a plug-and-play top-five option on opening weekend.

Beimfohr faded Pittsburgh and took the Jets at +138 outright. He calls the Steelers offense, even with Aaron Rodgers, one of the least talented groups in football and questions why they are road favorites. The Jets defense should rebound under Aaron Glenn, and Justin Fields carries a revenge narrative facing Rodgers. Factoring in home field and matchup edges, he sees clear betting value on New York.

Tyler Knaeble warned drafters to avoid Pittsburgh skill players in Week 1 Eliminator lineups. He pointed out that the Steelers open on the road against the Jets’ elite defense and called it "an awful game—you do not want to have any Pittsburgh." Because Eliminator formats require surviving each individual week, Knaeble argued that drawing Sauce Gardner’s secondary and a likely low-total contest makes Steelers pieces a liability right out of the gate. His advice: pivot to teams with friendlier opening-week matchups, especially when filling out early-round picks that need to score immediately.

Chris Raybon said the market is giving the Steelers too much credit in the Week 1 Jets–Steelers matchup. He pointed out that oddsmakers have installed Pittsburgh as a multi-point favorite even though Aaron Rodgers has not officially signed with New York yet. Raybon noted that the Tomlin no-losing-season narrative routinely inflates Pittsburgh lines early in the year, and he expects that to be the case again here. His recommendation is to grab the Jets and the points now—before a Rodgers announcement or preseason enthusiasm tightens the number—because the current spread bakes in a worst-case scenario at quarterback for New York that is unlikely to exist by kickoff.