Makinen took New England +1.5, noting Aaron Rodgers is 6-17 ATS as a single-digit road favorite since 2021. Veteran quarterbacks in their first season with a new team are 29-51-1 ATS when laying points away from home since 2004. The Patriots own the series (8-1 SU, 6-1-2 ATS since 2013). Teams giving up >6.5 yards per play through two weeks rebound at a 65 % ATS clip in Week 3, and New England’s offense just posted 34 points behind Rhamondre Stevenson and Drake Maye. Makinen sees the Pats as a live home dog.

After the line drifted to Steelers ‑1.5, Tuley teased New England up to +7.5, banking on coach Mike Vrabel’s historical success as an underdog. Moving through 3 and 7 creates a classic Wong teaser. Tuley sees little separating the teams and views the extra cushion as critical in what profiles as a defensive slog.

Everett laid 1.5 with Pittsburgh despite acknowledging the Steelers defense has regressed. He simply does not view New England—led by Drake Maye—as a legitimate AFC threat. Counting on Aaron Rodgers to engineer one extra scoring drive, Everett expects Mike Tomlin’s club to notch its second narrow victory over an AFC East team in three weeks.

Dabbundo took New England over 21.5 points (-110) instead of a side. Both defenses rank bottom-8 in success rate allowed through two weeks, and Pittsburgh’s injury list is ugly: edge rusher Alex Highsmith and DT Isaiahh Loudermilk are out while S DeShon Elliott and CB Joey Porter Jr. are questionable. Mike Tomlin’s group has now been steam-bet on game day two straight weeks and burned backers both times. With the Steelers hemorrhaging explosives and Tyrod Taylor unlikely to turn the ball over for the Jets last week, Dabbundo sees Bill O’Brien’s offense enjoying short fields and sustained drives, clearing 22 points even if both coaches remain conservative on fourth downs.

Spector took New England at +100, citing a re-discovered 30-point offense that ran 29 times to just 23 passes in a win at Miami, snapping a five-game road skid. He contrasted that with Pittsburgh allowing 30+ points in consecutive weeks for the first time since 2002 while yielding 182 rushing yards to the Jets and an 8.1 yards-per-carry beating from Kenneth Walker III. Steelers quarterbacks were pressured on 38% of dropbacks and mustered only 4.7 yards per attempt. With market odds implying a coin-flip, Spector believes the Patriots’ rush-first game plan matches perfectly against a soft Steelers front and warrants a play at even money.

With books originally listing Pittsburgh as a 1-point favorite, Cluff flipped the script, projecting Patriots 20-17 behind Drake Maye. He believes New England’s offense does just enough at home to move above .500, recommending a moneyline swing on the slight dog-turned-favorite.