Sean Zerillo recommended betting Gabriel Bonfim to win in Round 1 or Round 2 at +125. Bonfim is 14 years younger, a notoriously fast starter, and owns a reliable club-and-sub skill set—hurts foes on the feet, then instantly jumps on submissions. Thompson has been taken down in five straight fights, is 1-4 over that span (the lone win aided by Kevin Holland ignoring grappling), and just turned 42. Zerillo believes Bonfim’s early pressure and willingness to transition to submissions after knockdowns make the R1/R2 window the sweet spot. He also sees hidden value on Bonfim KO because the market leans too heavily toward submission, but the safest route is the combined R1/R2 prop. If the veteran survives the opening frame, Zerillo will consider a live hedge on Wonderboy, but pre-fight action is squarely on Bonfim early.

Kunath backed the heavily-favored Gabriel Bonfim to finish 42-year-old Stephen ‘Wonderboy’ Thompson by submission. He called it a "nightmarish" style clash for Wonderboy because the grappling gap is "insurmountable." Bonfim’s youth, explosiveness, and one-shot takedown ability should let him crash distance after an early feeling-out period, drive Thompson to the fence, score a takedown, and latch a guillotine when Wonderboy scrambles. The tout believes Thompson’s trademark footwork has dulled with age and one clean grapple sequence ends the fight.

Dan Tom advised bettors to look for the split-decision prop instead of a money-line play in Thompson–Bonfim. He explained that Nashville cards routinely mix local judges on the prelims and main card, producing 30-27 scorecards in opposite directions. With a big cage favoring Thompson’s footwork and Bonfim’s best path requiring clinch-heavy grappling, Tom expects a competitive fight that sees the scorecards more often than the betting public thinks. Because books still hang juicy +800 to +1200 numbers on split outcomes, he believes this matchup is the quintessential split-prop target on the card.

Michael Lurato called Stephen Wonderboy Thompson the clear "value side" at +325 even though his official pick is Bonfim. Lurato stressed that Thompson’s karate-based point-fighting style still works in the big cage because Bonfim must spend valuable time "downloading data" on Wonderboy’s hopping in-and-out kicks and side-on stance. If Bonfim fails to get early takedowns, Lurato expects Thompson to rack up volume and potentially steal a split decision. He refuses to lay –450 on a favorite who has never had to solve 15 minutes of elite movement and urged listeners not to anchor parlays with Bonfim. In his words, "I would not be shocked if Wonderboy won a split here."

Building on his earlier pick, MMA Guru doubled down and tightened the window: he now expects Gabriel Bonfim to tap Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson inside two rounds. Guru said Thompson’s perpetual back-foot, counter-striking style guarantees opponents opportunities to impose their game and pointed out that Wonderboy has not scored a first-round KO in the UFC, so early danger is minimal. Bonfim, by contrast, shot five takedowns in two rounds versus Chaos Williams, chained attempts until a tight D’arce choke and, at 27, owns the physical edge—taller, thicker, “higher testosterone,” as Guru put it. Although Wonderboy’s takedown defense held up in spots against Shavkat Rakhmonov, Guru thinks the rangier Thompson will be easier for Bonfim to clasp than the squat Nicolas Dalby who forced Bonfim to gas. With the Brazilian installed as a –410 favorite, Guru prefers a submission or R1–R2 prop to squeeze value rather than the steep moneyline. He envisions relentless level-changes, a mat return near the fence and a quick finish once Bonfim latches a choke.

MMA Guru predicted Gabriel Bonfim will defeat Stephen "Wonderboy" Thompson by leaning on persistent wrestling and grappling. Bonfim shot five takedowns against Chaos Williams and kept chaining attempts until locking up a round-two D’arce choke, showcasing a style tailor-made to exploit Thompson’s back-foot, counter-striking approach. Guru argued that while Nicolas Dalby beat Bonfim by mixing clinch and volume striking, Thompson rarely pressures or wrestles, meaning Bonfim will get the entries he needs. With Wonderboy carrying far more mileage (17-8 vs 17-1) and unlikely to produce a fast knockout, Guru expects Bonfim to back Thompson toward the fence, chain wrestle, and either submit him or bank control-heavy rounds. Suggested bets: Bonfim moneyline, Bonfim submission prop.

Gumby Vreeland called Gabriel Bonfim –3.5 on the judge’s scorecards his lock of the week at –150. The bet cashes with either a finish or any 30-27 scorecard, and Vreeland thinks both are highly probable. Thompson’s last two losses came inside the distance against strong wrestlers (Gilbert Burns, Belal Muhammad), and Bonfim brings the same heavy double-leg plus a relentless submission game that produced 13 tap-outs in 18 fights. Even if Wonderboy survives, Gumby sees every round starting on the feet and ending on the mat, translating to clean 10-9s for the Brazilian. He prefers the spread over the –400 moneyline because it chops price while still covering Bonfim’s most realistic win conditions.

Jeff Fox said it’s “bye-bye Stephen Thompson” and laid the –400 on Gabriel Bonfim without hesitation. Thompson has dropped four of his last five and both recent defeats came by finish, primarily because his once-elite takedown defense has evaporated. Bonfim, 14 years younger and boasting 13 submissions in 17 wins, averages far more takedown attempts and lands 1.42 significant strikes per minute more than his opponents. Fox expects the Brazilian’s first level change to put Wonderboy on his back where Bonfim’s top pressure and slick front-headlock series (10 career guillotines/D’Arces) should secure either a lopsided 30-27 or a tap. He is sprinkling Bonfim ITD to juice the chalk and views Thompson moneyline as a pure donation at this stage of Wonderboy’s career.

Bedtime MMA picked Gabriel Bonfim to submit Stephen "Wonderboy" Thompson in round three. He expects Thompson to win the early striking exchanges with side-kicks and leg-kicks, but says the 41-year-old has visibly lost a step in speed and pop, and historically slows when forced to wrestle. Bonfim, since his loss to Nicolas Dalby, has become a measured counter-fighter—pumping jabs, calf-kicks, and feints until opponents over-commit. Bedtime foresees Thompson blitzing forward late in the fight, squaring his hips, and giving Bonfim the exact entry he needs to duck under, finish a takedown, and hunt the neck. He cited prior examples of Thompson surrendering rear-naked choke attempts to Shavkat Rakhmonov and long back-control stretches to Belal Muhammad and Gilbert Burns, arguing that Bonfim’s squeeze is on par. Whether 2-0 or 1-1 on the cards, the tout trusts Bonfim’s patient wrestling to cash a late submission ticket.