Billy Ward outlined strong concerns regarding Su Mudaerji's chances against Mitch Raposo at UFC 314, citing Su's abysmal UFC track record once opponents secure even a single takedown. Ward noted a key statistic: Su is 0-4 in fights where he's been taken down just once, underscoring severe concerns regarding grappling defense and submission vulnerability. Raposo's credentials as a former state champion wrestler with black belt-level BJJ present an immediate threat. Ward expressed worry over an early knockout threat from Su striking power, but strongly recommended betting Raposo at plus 170 for anyone who secured that earlier price, or alternatively, shifting towards Raposo by decision at current lines.

Matty Betss identified Mitch Raposo as a compelling longshot KO bet at around +750 odds against Su Mudaerji. Matty pointed to Su's previous performances, especially his war against Matt Schnell, as evidence of damaged durability after sustaining significant punishment. Noting that Su seemingly could have been stopped multiple times during that fight, Matty believes Raposo, who is younger and continually improving his striking, could take advantage with a precise shot. He expects an aggressive, striking-filled bout that could present Raposo the opportunity to land effectively on Mudaerji's increasingly vulnerable chin.

Kunath highlights Sumudaerji as a strong betting play against Mitch Raposo based on significant experience and aggression advantages. Despite a three-fight losing streak, Sumudaerji's recent opponents (Matt Schnell, Tim Elliott, Charles Johnson) represent a much higher competition level compared to Raposo's limited success. Kunath emphasizes Raposo's historically weak performances at UFC-level competition (losses to Ludovic Sholinian on TUF, Jake Hadley on Contender Series), noting his extremely passive UFC debut. Conversely, Sumudaerji showcases consistent forward aggression, solid striking technique, power, and willingness to exchange actively. With significant physical advantages and superior in-cage experience, Kunath is confident Sumudaerji will deliver high-volume damage and secure a critical victory, recommending him as the clear betting favorite over Raposo.

Bedtime MMA chose Su Mudaerji to win by unanimous decision against Mitch Raposo. His reasoning focused on Su Mudaerji's sizeable reach and striking advantage, especially his calf kicks, jab, and one-two combinations. Though on a losing streak, Su Mudaerji has only lost to elite ranked opponents such as Charles Johnson, Tim Elliott, and Matt Schnell. Bedtime MMA sees these losses as forgivable given the competition and believes Su Mudaerji can comfortably handle Raposo's shorter reach and lack of effective range striking, projecting a clear decision win.

Matty Betss highlighted Mitch Provost as a potentially valuable longshot at +750 odds to win by knockout against Su Mudaerji. Matty emphasized Su Mudaerji's recent wars, particularly referencing his grueling fight with Matt Schnell where Su appeared to nearly finish Schnell multiple times yet failed to close the show. Given Su Mudaerji's accumulated damage and Provost's ongoing improvement, notably in striking, Matty sees significant value in Provost landing a decisive shot and believes the big price (+750) makes him an appealing speculative play.

Gumby Vreeland strongly endorsed betting underdog Mitch Raposo against Sumudaerji, emphasizing Raposo's underrated grappling abilities. He highlighted that Sumudaerji struggles with grappling and has never won a UFC fight when he's been taken down. Gumby underscored Raposo's impressive performance against notable grappler Jake Hadley, managing two takedowns in that bout. He also pointed out how well Raposo handled himself standing in a tough contest against Allan Nascimento, asserting that Raposo showed enough striking capability to survive until he could get the fight to the mat. Additionally, Gumby mentioned that Raposo's durability and solid cardio, especially at a higher weight class, would help him outlast and fade Sumudaerji, who typically tires quickly due to his large physique.

Drake Burden highlights Su Mudaerji's notable reach and striking advantage over Mitch Raposo, who needs takedowns to succeed. Burden advises that if Raposo fails to get the fight on the mat, Mudaerji will dominate striking exchanges and could end the fight with an early finish. He expects Mudaerji to be both popular and productive in DFS lineups because of his knockout capabilities.

Cody Saftic recommends betting on Mitch Raposo as an underdog against Sumudaerji due to several key contextual advantages, despite acknowledging Raposo's past struggles when taking step-up fights. Raposo, still only 26, is a state wrestling champion with a BJJ black belt and holds a significant wrestling and cardio edge according to Cody's analysis. Despite disappointing losses early in his career to high-level opponents like Jake Hadley (where Raposo faded due to poor cardio preparation) and Andre Lima (fought on short notice), Cody stresses that Raposo has shown potential, athleticism, speed, and notable improvements coming off a full camp this time. Conversely, Cody notes significant concerns with Sumudaerji's ability to defend wrestling and grappling-heavy approaches, highlighting Sumudaerji's losses to Matt Schnell, Tim Elliott, and even Charles Johnson—all involving significant grappling exchanges. Considering Sumudaerji has struggled repeatedly against exactly Raposo's style of grinding wrestling, coupled with difficult weight cuts potentially sapping stamina and chin vulnerability, Cody views Raposo at plus money as a strategic value bet worth exploring.

Paul Shaughnessy sees solid value in betting Sumudaerji versus Mitch Raposo due to a clear striking and reach advantage. Despite conceding vulnerabilities against high-level wrestlers like Tim Elliott and Matt Schnell previously, Paul did not find Mitch Raposo's wrestling ability elite enough to fully exploit these weaknesses on tape. Paul specifically cites a decisive eight-inch reach advantage (72” vs. 64”) and substantial height difference (5’8” vs. much shorter Raposo) as key factors favoring Sumudaerji. Additionally, Sumudaerji’s current odds (-170) appear unusually favorable due to recent losses, creating a potential buy-low opportunity. Given the absence of high-grade wrestling threats presented uniquely by Raposo, Paul anticipates Sumudaerji comfortably outstriking Raposo from range, making him an appealing moderate favorite bet.