Billy Ward outlined strong concerns regarding Su Mudaerji's chances against Mitch Raposo at UFC 314, citing Su's abysmal UFC track record once opponents secure even a single takedown. Ward noted a key statistic: Su is 0-4 in fights where he's been taken down just once, underscoring severe concerns regarding grappling defense and submission vulnerability. Raposo's credentials as a former state champion wrestler with black belt-level BJJ present an immediate threat. Ward expressed worry over an early knockout threat from Su striking power, but strongly recommended betting Raposo at plus 170 for anyone who secured that earlier price, or alternatively, shifting towards Raposo by decision at current lines.

Matty Betss identified Mitch Raposo as a compelling longshot KO bet at around +750 odds against Su Mudaerji. Matty pointed to Su's previous performances, especially his war against Matt Schnell, as evidence of damaged durability after sustaining significant punishment. Noting that Su seemingly could have been stopped multiple times during that fight, Matty believes Raposo, who is younger and continually improving his striking, could take advantage with a precise shot. He expects an aggressive, striking-filled bout that could present Raposo the opportunity to land effectively on Mudaerji's increasingly vulnerable chin.

Kunath highlights Sumudaerji as a strong betting play against Mitch Raposo based on significant experience and aggression advantages. Despite a three-fight losing streak, Sumudaerji's recent opponents (Matt Schnell, Tim Elliott, Charles Johnson) represent a much higher competition level compared to Raposo's limited success. Kunath emphasizes Raposo's historically weak performances at UFC-level competition (losses to Ludovic Sholinian on TUF, Jake Hadley on Contender Series), noting his extremely passive UFC debut. Conversely, Sumudaerji showcases consistent forward aggression, solid striking technique, power, and willingness to exchange actively. With significant physical advantages and superior in-cage experience, Kunath is confident Sumudaerji will deliver high-volume damage and secure a critical victory, recommending him as the clear betting favorite over Raposo.

Bedtime MMA chose Su Mudaerji to win by unanimous decision against Mitch Raposo. His reasoning focused on Su Mudaerji's sizeable reach and striking advantage, especially his calf kicks, jab, and one-two combinations. Though on a losing streak, Su Mudaerji has only lost to elite ranked opponents such as Charles Johnson, Tim Elliott, and Matt Schnell. Bedtime MMA sees these losses as forgivable given the competition and believes Su Mudaerji can comfortably handle Raposo's shorter reach and lack of effective range striking, projecting a clear decision win.

Matty Betss highlighted Mitch Provost as a potentially valuable longshot at +750 odds to win by knockout against Su Mudaerji. Matty emphasized Su Mudaerji's recent wars, particularly referencing his grueling fight with Matt Schnell where Su appeared to nearly finish Schnell multiple times yet failed to close the show. Given Su Mudaerji's accumulated damage and Provost's ongoing improvement, notably in striking, Matty sees significant value in Provost landing a decisive shot and believes the big price (+750) makes him an appealing speculative play.