Guru predicted Tagir Ulanbekov will beat Azat Maksum on the cards. He cited Maksum’s struggles versus lanky grapplers such as Charles Johnson and believes Ulanbekov’s height and Team Khabib pedigree will stuff Maksum’s takedown attempts. Ulanbekov has been preparing for similarly-sized Kyoji Horiguchi, giving him a full camp advantage, while Maksum accepted with shorter notice. Guru expects Ulanbekov to defend early shots, rack up clinch control and sprinkle in his own takedowns for a methodical decision.

Sniper called Ulanbekov a rock-solid cash-game anchor with GPP upside. He expects the Dagestani to exploit Maksum’s porous takedown defence and willingness to be controlled, forecasting heavy top-time and multiple advances. Because Ulanbekov is sandwiched between popular spend-ups like Oban Elliott ($9.5K) and Nazim Sadykhov ($9.4K), Sniper believes ownership will be modest, giving him leverage in both single-entry and SE contests. He plans to be overweight on Ulanbekov and almost entirely fade Maksum ($6.9K).

Monk backed Tagir Ulanbekov even at his steep $9.3K salary, pointing to huge edges in both volume and wrestling. Ulanbekov lands 1.2 takedowns per five minutes, controls 83 % of the grappling exchanges, and still manages 3.4 significant strikes per minute in Rounds 1 and 3. Maksum, meanwhile, absorbs 5.2 sig-strikes per minute, attempts half as many takedowns, and was out-controlled by Tyson Nam in a split decision loss. Monk expects Ulanbekov to spend long stretches in top position, piling up DraftKings control and advance points en route to a clear decision and 90-plus fantasy score.

Dan Tom said Tagir Ulanbekov is parlay-worthy at roughly –300 but prefers attacking the Inside-the-Distance prop at +240 because he expects a second- or third-round finish. Tom believes Ulanbekov will systematically break Azat Maksum by chaining takedowns, racking up control time and forcing Maksum’s suspect gas tank to wilt. Once Maksum’s level-change defense slows, Tom sees the Dagestani latching a ninja choke or similar front-headlock submission—moves Ulanbekov hits often in the room but seldom gets credit for on tape. Tom pointed out that Maksum’s takedown defense crumbles after five minutes (was stuffed on 5 of 7 shots in round two vs regional competition) and noted Ulanbekov’s 2.34 takedowns per 15 minutes and +0.93 control differential as clear statistical edges. He slotted Ulanbekov ITD alongside JunYong Park in a two-leg money-line parlay that returns about 1.5 units, calling the sub play the ‘greedy but logical’ kicker for bettors chasing plus money.

Madlab Michael Lurato said he is backing Tagir Ulanbekov and sprinkling the submission prop despite the hefty –475 money-line. Lurato loves Ulanbekov’s lanky 70-inch reach and ‘octopus-like’ frame that translates into seamless level-changes and a tight front-headlock series. He expects the Dagestani to lean on his 2.34 takedowns per 15 minutes and +0.93 control differential once Azat Maksum’s first-round power burst fades. Maksum has slowed in three of his last four bouts and has twice been stuck in guillotines because he shoots with his head outside. Lurato projects Ulanbekov to bank early top-time, sap Maksum’s gas tank, and finish a ninja choke or high-elbow guillotine late in round two or early round three. His official wager: Ulanbekov-by-Submission (+240) plus a two-leg parlay with JunYong Park at –106 for 1.6 units.

Kunath endorsed Tagir Ulanbekov by submission, calling the Dagestani a dark-horse threat at 125. He pointed to Azamot Moxham’s shaky showing versus Charles Johnson—dropped him early but still got out-struck and surrendered takedowns—as proof the 15-1 record is smoke and mirrors. Ulanbekov, one of the bigger flyweights, brings slick pocket entries, elite chain wrestling, tight back-takes and a lightning-quick arm-in guillotine. Kunath visualized Tagir crashing the pocket, snapping Moxham down and locking that choke before the newcomer can scramble. Because the straight line is juiced, he recommended hunting the submission prop, which still sits plus money on most books.

Kunath projected Tagir Ulanbekov to expose Azamat Moxim with wrestling chains that lead to a submission finish. He reminded listeners that Moxim was out-grappled and ultimately beaten by veteran Charles Johnson despite dropping Johnson early, revealing glaring defensive holes. Ulanbekov, one of the division’s bigger flyweights, owns what Kunath called “elite takedowns, instantaneous back-takes and a snap-on arm-in guillotine.” He also praised Ulanbekov’s underrated pocket boxing, arguing that Moxim’s identity as a purely explosive striker will crumble once takedowns land. The betting edge, per Kunath, is the submission prop rather than a juiced moneyline because Ulanbekov regularly hunts finishes once positional dominance is secured.

Millz Young advised laying the chalk on Tagir Ulanbekov despite the wide number, pointing to Ulanbekov’s 16-2 record and the submission-heavy skill set he honed at Khabib Nurmagomedov’s camp. He said Maksum looked flat in his last outing and is taking a big step up in competition, making the price tag justified even if it feels high.

Bedtime MMA picked Tagir Ulanbekov to out-class Azat Maxum, calling the Dagestani an “80 overall” while rating Maxum a “75 overall.” He highlighted Ulanbekov’s superior UFC experience, including ranked wins and a competitive loss to veteran Tim Elliott, plus the ever-present “Dagestani plot armor.” He expects Tagir to lean on his wrestling and positional control, with enough striking polish to win extended exchanges. Prediction: Ulanbekov by clear decision, making him a solid parlay leg or straight play.