Peter Overzet opened the "bomb" ticket by flag-planting Drake London for 100 receiving yards, calling the Buccaneers matchup a "smash" and assigning the alt-line a 1.5x multiplier. Pete doubled down by grouping London with other alpha wideouts in a 50-plus-to-1 ladder slip.

Makinen likes Atlanta +1.5. Divisional home underdogs are 24-6 ATS (80%) in Week 1 since 2009, and favorites seeking revenge for a loss the prior season cover only 38.1% (16-26 ATS). The Falcons are 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS in the last six against Tampa Bay and now hand the offense to Michael Penix, who spurred high-scoring outputs during three 2024 starts. Despite the Bucs chasing a fifth straight NFC South title behind Baker Mayfield’s resurgent play, the historical angles point to the Falcons springing another upset.

Eric Moody recommended locking Mike Evans into fantasy rosters. Atlanta surrendered the fifth-most fantasy points to wide receivers last season and still lacks a steady pass rush, leaving corners on an island. Evans roasted A.J. Terrell for 23.2 points in Week 5 last year and now projects for an even larger share with Chris Godwin and Jalen McMillan battling injuries. Baker Mayfield cleared 1.5 passing touchdowns in 12 of 17 starts, and his −140 prop to do so again underscores Evans’ multi-TD ceiling.

Seth Walder predicted Emeka Egbuka will haul in at least six receptions in his first NFL game. Tampa is down Chris Godwin, Jalen McMillan and possibly Cade Otton, forcing Baker Mayfield to funnel targets to the first-round rookie who has drawn rave reviews for mastering every receiver position. Atlanta surrendered the fifth-most fantasy points to wideouts in 2024 and still struggles to generate pressure, giving Egbuka clean releases against a young secondary. Walder views him as a cheap, high-volume DFS play and a viable Flex in deeper season-long formats.

Joyner slotted a 3-confidence money-line and 4-confidence ATS pick on the Falcons (+2.5) after Tampa Bay lost three pass catchers for Week 1 (Chris Godwin, Jalen McMillan, Cade Otton). That leaves Mike Evans and first-rounder Emeka Egbuka to face a secondary that Joyner’s metrics grade as the single most favorable coverage matchup of the week for Atlanta (97/100). While both Bijan Robinson and Rachaad White meet tough run defenses, the injury-thinned Buccaneers pass game turns what the betting public thinks is a 47.5-point shootout into a narrow Atlanta home win.

Hennion played Atlanta on the moneyline at +118, arguing Tampa Bay’s 2024 offensive leap (20th to 7th in DVOA) is ripe for regression after OC Liam Coen’s departure. Atlanta, meanwhile, climbed from 24th to 14th and keeps play-caller Zac Robinson with an ascendant young QB and strong skill talent. Early Bucs money pushed the line to +2.5 before buy-back on the Falcons, a move Hennion views as confirmation. Since 2005, home divisional dogs in Weeks 1-3 are 66-38-3 ATS (63.5%); at +2 or shorter they’re 11-5-1 ATS. Baker Mayfield is only 8-7 ATS as a favorite in Tampa, 4-3 when laying four or fewer, reinforcing the upset angle.

Iyer backed Tampa Bay -2.5, noting a ‘streamlined, savvier’ scheme that lets Baker Mayfield push the ball deep off a Bucky Irving power run game. He respects Michael Penix Jr. and Bijan Robinson but trusts the Buccaneers’ defense to earn one extra stop, predicting a 27-24 Tampa victory and cover.

Prisco laid the 2.5 with Tampa Bay, arguing Baker Mayfield is "ready for a big year" and should capitalize on lingering defensive holes Atlanta showed last season. Both clubs enter Sunday with banged-up offensive lines, but he trusts Mayfield more than Falcons newcomer Michael Penix Jr. to navigate the pressure. He forecast a 28-24 Bucs victory that nudges them toward controlling the NFC South race and makes Tampa the playable side under a field goal.

MacMillan laid -2.5 with Tampa, arguing Atlanta’s decision to sit all starters in preseason will leave Michael Penix Jr. rusty in his first season as a full-time starter. He expects a "false start" from the Falcons and a sharper, game-ready Buccaneers squad out of the gate.

Polzin acknowledged that Bucky Irving would see a full workload if Rachaad White is ruled out and reminded listeners Irving ‘looked like a stud’ down the 2024 stretch. Even so, he plans to stay underweight because he expects defenses to keep Irving in front of them while double-teaming Mike Evans, essentially daring rookie Emeka Egbuka to win outside. That alignment would funnel attention to Irving and cap his efficiency, especially with stronger running-back plays available at similar price points. Polzin called Irving a trap value unless updated projections make him unavoidable.

Eric Polzin said Bijan Robinson is the premier spend-up running back for Week 1. Robinson logged 10.7 DK points in his first 2024 meeting with Tampa but erupted for 23 in the rematch, a split Polzin tied directly to Drake London’s target dominance in the low game and absence in the spike week. He advised setting a lineup-builder rule that blocks London whenever Robinson is rostered to avoid negative correlation. Polzin expects Atlanta to lean on the ground game because first-year starter Michael Penix Jr. will be seeing a division foe that had an off-season to scheme him, while Tampa will be without Chris Godwin and rookie Jalen McMillan and lost play-caller Dave Canales—factors that should keep the pace down and favor a Robinson-centric script.

Polzin prefers Atlanta +2 / +2.5 and even the +114 moneyline because Tampa Bay’s offense is limping in. The Bucs just lost yet another pass catcher in camp, will open without Chris Godwin and Jalen McMillan, and no longer have OC Liam Coen. He expects Baker Mayfield to regress off last season’s career year. Atlanta is down Darnell Mooney and still has Kyle Pitts question marks, but Drake London and Bijan Robinson give Michael Penix enough weapons for what Polzin projects as a potential shoot-out in the dome. With home-field edge and a healthier skill group, he believes the wrong team is favored.

Mike Fanelli said Chase McLaughlin should be one of the first kickers fantasy drafters target in the final rounds because he brings both a sturdy floor and a huge Week 1 ceiling. McLaughlin closed 2024 as the K6 at 9.4 fantasy points per game while drilling 93.8 percent of 32 field-goal tries and finishing fourth in the league with 54 extra points. Fanelli noted the Buccaneers offense remains "excellent" and opens 2025 against a below-average Falcons defense. Atlanta coughed up 24 fantasy points to McLaughlin across two meetings last year and failed to address its red-zone problems this offseason. With the game total sitting above league average, Fanelli expects multiple scoring drives and views McLaughlin as an easy 10-point play right out of the gate.

Joey P likes Atlanta to eclipse 7.5 wins but is timing the market instead of laying the current –130 juice. He plans to watch the Week-1 home matchup with Tampa. If the Falcons drop that opener—"even in a close game"—he expects public over-reaction to flip the price to plus money. At that point he will bet the over, trusting Michael Penix Jr. and a favorable NFC South schedule to get Atlanta to at least eight victories. The strategy lets him ride his bullish season outlook while squeezing extra value out of a likely one-week swing.

Best Ball Guy said Baker Mayfield is a smash pick any time he drifts past pick 90 in Underdog’s Eliminator drafts. He loves that Mayfield opens the season on the road against Atlanta, a defense that just lost A.J. Terrell and finished 27th in pressure rate, making a Week-1 touchdown binge very realistic. Eliminator’s half-PPR scoring magnifies passing TDs, and Mayfield’s 4.6% touchdown rate from 2023 plus sneaky scramble value (three rushing scores) fits that scoring perfectly. The unique Week-9 bye means drafters can pair him with a different-bye quarterback—Best Ball Guy specifically likes coupling Mayfield with Brock Purdy—without ever taking a zero. Because stacking isn’t mandatory in the format, the Buccaneers’ concentrated target tree of Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Trey Palmer already captures most Mayfield splash plays, giving him an attractive floor/ceiling combo for a fraction of the cost of other entrenched starters.