Calling last week’s Miami performance 'awful,' Prisco expects a resurgent Josh Allen on Sunday. Tampa Bay’s back end has allowed six 300-yard passers in nine games and owns the league’s worst third-down stop rate (49%). Prisco anticipates the Bills—now 5-4 and in urgent need of a win—lean on Allen’s arm early, projecting a 30-23 victory. He emphasized that Allen’s red-zone efficiency (74% TD rate) should normalize against a Bucs defense that has given up 11 touchdowns in its past 14 opponent trips inside the 20. That makes Allen a bounce-back DFS centerpiece and a worthwhile buy-low in season-long formats.

Ian Hanford laid the 5.5 with Buffalo, banking on the league-best 9-0 record the Bills have posted in 1 p.m. home kickoffs since 2023. Hanford expects Josh Allen to lean on James Cook after his worst game of the year and trusts the Orchard Park advantage against a warm-weather opponent dealing with mounting injuries. He predicted Buffalo wins by a touchdown and steadies the ship after two losses in three weeks.

Gary Davenport grabbed the Buccaneers +5.5, noting that Buffalo’s defense was just gashed by a struggling Dolphins offense and that Josh Allen’s passing attack remains inconsistent. He downplayed any weather edge—Sunday should be cool but not brutal—and expects the Bills to win without clearing the sizeable spread.

Scott Kellen took Buffalo ‑5.5, reasoning that Tampa Bay’s +8 net turnover margin masks equal play-in-the-trenches metrics. Both clubs were man-handled at the line last week, but the Buccaneers are still missing their top wide receivers. With the Bills motivated after losing at Miami as big favorites, Kellen forecasted a 27-21 rebound win and cover for Buffalo.

Mader tabbed the Over 45.5 receiving yards for Khalil Shakir, printing a 49.6-yard projection and 58.2% probability at -111. Shakir now runs 30-34 routes, drawing 5-7 targets as a full-time slot weapon, and has landed between 40-60 yards in four straight games. Tampa Bay’s defense bleeds yardage to WRs (160 per game) and ranks near the bottom in slot YPRR allowed. With Buffalo still leaning pass-heavy even when favored, Shakir has a clear runway for mid-40s plus yardage barring an early blowout that throttles second-half volume.

Matt Bowen took Josh Allen OVER 219.5 passing yards. Allen has topped 270 in back-to-back outings and now faces a Buccaneers zone scheme surrendering 233.2 YPG (24th). Bowen expects Buffalo to attack the soft areas of Tampa’s three-deep looks, forecasting another 35-plus attempt day that blows past the discounted prop.

Everett argues the +5.5 line gives Buffalo too much respect. He notes the Bills offense only hums when the ground game clicks—something DT Vita Vea and the Bucs front can stifle. With Josh Allen forced to rely on an “underwhelming” receiving corps and Tampa’s 6-3 defense stronger than units that have already slowed Buffalo, Everett expects the underdog to keep things within a field goal even if they don’t win outright.