Just A Bet Outside backed the Rays team total over 2.5 runs because Mitchell Parker has been one of baseball’s worst starters for two straight months. Parker posted a 6.04 ERA, .313 average against, and 1.66 WHIP in July, then cratered to a 12.00 ERA, .337 average, and 1.95 WHIP in August. His xFIP sits above 5.00 to both sides of the plate and 23 of his 26 starts have ended with the opponent at three or more runs. Tampa Bay’s offense is only 22nd in wRC+ versus lefties over the last three weeks, but they still show decent pop (18th in slugging and ISO) and have scored at least four runs off recent mediocre southpaws like Matt Liberatore and Tyler Anderson. With the road team’s guaranteed nine trips to the plate and a bottom-tier Nationals bullpen lurking, he expects the Rays to reach three runs even if the bats aren’t red-hot.

Kenny G said to lay the −140 with Tampa Bay because everything lines up against Washington. He pointed to Nationals starter Mitchell Parker carrying a 7-14 record and 6.01 ERA while coming off back-to-back shellings by the Phillies. Parker has battled control issues and has not faced Tampa this season, so Kenny expects more trouble. Washingtons bullpen owns the worst ERA in MLB, and the Nats offense has scored only 2-4-5-2-1-5 runs over its last six, showing no punch. On the other side, the Rays bullpen has been reliable and Adrian Houser has at least kept them in games with a 2.88 ERA since joining Tampa. Kenny thinks the Rays bats, even with season-long inconsistency, will be good enough against Parker and that shaky pen to justify the price, making Tampa Bay −140 his preferred betting play.