Kenny G endorsed Toronto at −140, noting Texas has dropped eight of nine and brings Patrick Corbin’s 4.00 ERA plus three straight short, mediocre outings into Rogers Centre. The Rangers offence has been anemic (run totals 5-4-2-7-2-2-1) and ranks 28th in both batting average and OBP while sitting 24-35 on the road. Toronto is 40-20 at home, owns MLB’s best team batting average and OBP, and sits seventh in runs scored. Starter Eric Lauer (7-2, 2.82 ERA) is expected to bounce back after a 3-inning clunker against the Dodgers and work deeper with a fresh arm. Kenny acknowledged the Jays’ 4.05 bullpen ERA but called it “serviceable,” especially against a Nationals bullpen worst in baseball. With the superior line-up, home field edge, and a live arm in Lauer, he labeled the Jays moneyline an “excellent play” that could land in his pinned comment.

Ruffolo’s favorite prop is Lauer under 2.5 earned runs against the Rangers. He praised the left-hander’s work since joining Toronto’s rotation, particularly at home, and pointed to Texas’ continuing splits issues on the road where their OPS sits below .700. Add in Rogers Centre’s homer-suppressing dimensions and Ruffolo projects another quality outing that keeps Lauer under three earned.

Guy Boston Sports advised trimming the fat by playing the Rangers’ team total under (likely 3.5) instead of backing Toronto outright. The entire handicap rests on Texas being dead last in runs above average against sinkers over the past month while facing one of the heaviest sinker throwers in baseball. Betting the under insulates the play from a potential Jacob deGrom gem—Bassitt only has to keep Texas quiet for the ticket to cash.

Guy Boston Sports said he is willing to grab Toronto at plus money because Chris Bassitt’s 44-percent-usage sinker lines up perfectly with Texas’ biggest weakness. Over the last 30 days the Rangers rank dead last in run value versus sinkers, while Bassitt leans on the pitch more than any starter on tonight’s slate. On the other side Jacob deGrom has surrendered 13 earned runs in 17 innings against the Angels, Mariners and Phillies, so he is not in peak form. With a Blue Jays offense that still grades top-10 in wRC+ and ISO, the tout believes the market is undervaluing the better lineup in this matchup.

Kenny G recommended taking Toronto at +100, explaining that Jacob deGrom has allowed 13 earned over his last 16 innings (5 ER vs LAA, 5 ER vs SEA, 3 ER vs PHI) and the Rangers have lost all three. Texas bats have gone 4-2-7-2-2-1 runs during a 1-5 skid, while Toronto owns MLB-best marks in batting average and OBP and sits 40-20 at home. Chris Bassitt has been inconsistent but draws a slumping lineup, and Kenny noted the Rangers’ recent bullpen hiccups as another edge. He mentioned a lean to the 7.5-run over but called the Blue Jays moneyline his preferred play, saying, “plus-money on the best hitting team in baseball against a fading DeGrom is too good to pass up.”

Eric Lindquist said to fire on a Corey Seeger home-run prop Friday in Toronto. Lindquist noted that every right-handed starter the Jays can deploy – he mentioned Kevin Gausman and Chris Bassitt by name – has shown a persistent weakness versus left-handed power even while dominating righties. That platoon split aligns perfectly with Seeger’s pull-side pop. Playing in homer-friendly Rogers Centre and grading out as the top long-ball candidate in Lindquist’s power model, Seeger becomes a priority play for both betting markets and HR-hungry DFS lineups.