Vincenzi bet Ryo Hisatsune Top 10 at +425, citing three Top-20s in his last four starts (T4 Valspar, T5 Valero, T16 RBC Heritage). Over his last 24 rounds the 22-year-old ranks 15th in the field in Strokes-Gained Approach, a profile Vincenzi loves on the wide-open Craig Ranch layout where iron play separates. He frames the +425 price as a bargain for a player whose floor has been remarkably high all spring.

MacMillan wagered on Jake Knapp as first-round leader at +6000. Knapp ranks 16th on the PGA Tour in Round-1 scoring average and returns to a venue where he finished solo 8th last season. Coming off solo third at the Zurich Classic, MacMillan believes Knapp’s form and aggressive mentality set him up to post a red-hot Thursday number once again.

Kirschner’s 100-1 dart is Sami Valimaki, citing a blistering approach run of +4.2, +8.1, +4.8 and +3.2 strokes gained in his last four starts plus positive putting in eight of his last nine events. Valimaki already logged top finishes at comp courses Houston and Mexico, both long tracks that emphasize driver usage. Kirschner says those parallels and the Finn’s dual-threat iron/putter combo make him a live longshot in Dallas.

MacMillan tabbed Rico Hoey as his 80-1 longshot after noting Hoey ranks second in the entire field in Strokes-Gained Tee-to-Green over the past three months. With Craig Ranch rewarding aggressive drivers and precise approaches, MacMillan argues Hoey’s recent ball-striking surge gives him legitimate win equity that isn’t reflected in the triple-digit odds.

Brian Giuffra jumped on Will Zalatoris at +5500 after finding a rogue number at Bet365 (other books sat at 45-1). Giuffra points to several angles: Texans have thrived historically at this event; Zalatoris owns a prior T17 at Craig Ranch; and he ranks 15th on Tour in Strokes-Gained Approach, a premium stat on a target-practice track with lenient rough. The lone question mark is the putter, but Giuffra argues the low-pressure greens setup reduces that weakness, making the ball-striking edge too enticing at 55-1.

Cody Williams fired on Jake Knapp at +6000, framing the rookie as an ideal fit for a "big ballpark" where distance is rewarded. Knapp—fresh off an eighth-place finish here last year and a strong Zurich Classic performance with Frankie Capan—has gained strokes on approach in eight of his last ten measured events, suggesting improved iron play to pair with his elite length. Williams believes the combination of a soft fairway-penalty profile and reachable par 5s creates a ceiling outcome for Knapp that the 60-1 number fails to capture.

Brian Kirschner pounced on Stephan Jaeger at +4000, calling the number a clear mis-price. He cites Jaeger’s win at the 2024 Houston Open and T6 at the Mexico Open—two comps with generous driving corridors and minimal penalty for missed fairways. Kirschner adds that Jaeger’s irons have "rounded into form," an important indicator because the German intentionally schedules this event each year due to the fit. The high driver usage and low rough at TPC Craig Ranch allow him to lean on his best weapon while avoiding trouble, making Kirschner believe Jaeger’s true win probability is far higher than 2.5%.

Matt Vincenzi played Byeong Hun An outright at +2500, emphasizing that the South Korean has gained strokes Off-the-Tee, On Approach and Around the Green in three straight starts after early-season iron struggles. Vincenzi notes An’s well-rounded game suits a venue that turns into a birdie-fest where approach play still separates contenders. With the ball-striking trending up and odds longer than the elite tier, Vincenzi thinks An offers strong value to snag his first PGA Tour victory.

Iain MacMillan backed Si Woo Kim to win at +3000, arguing the Korean 'checks every box' for TPC Craig Ranch. Kim is coming off a T8 at RBC Heritage and owns elite course history with a T2 in 2022 and T13 in 2023. Over the last three months he ranks third in the field in True Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, a metric MacMillan feels is paramount on this driver-heavy, low-penalty layout. MacMillan views the missed cut at last week’s Zurich team event as noise and believes Kim’s combination of current ball-striking form and proven comfort in Texas sets him up for a win.

For first-round markets, Parker targeted Cameron Davis as Top Australasian at +240 (bet365). Only four other Australasians are in the field and Davis outranks them all in both DataGolf and FedEx Cup standings. He is 3rd on the PGA Tour in birdie-or-better percentage, a key stat on the low-scoring Craig Ranch layout. Recent form includes a T13 at the RBC Heritage where he ranked 8th in true strokes gained around the green and putting. Parker believes those short-game gains, plus the course’s birdie-friendly setup, point to Davis going low on Thursday and cashing the prop.

Parker recommended Ryo Hisatsune Top-40 at -110 (bet365). The 21-year-old has two Top-5 and two additional Top-20 finishes in his last five worldwide starts, gaining strokes in every category and ranking 19th tee-to-green and 16th in putting among players in this field. Hisatsune sits 17th on the PGA Tour in adjusted scoring average and already owns a DP World Tour victory plus three other worldwide wins. He debuted at the Byron Nelson with a T13 last year, so Parker views a Top-40 ticket as a high-floor way to ride his balanced game and hot form.

Parker advised taking Stephan Jaeger as Top German at +130 on DraftKings. Jaeger has played the weekend in five straight events and ranks 6th in the field in true strokes gained on approach during that run. He owns back-to-back Top-20 finishes at TPC Craig Ranch and has dominated the driver here, pacing the field in true strokes gained off the tee in 2024 and ranking 4th in 2023. While his season-long driving accuracy sits 124th, Parker believes the generous sight lines in Dallas mitigate that weakness and set Jaeger up for another strong finish against a shallow German contingent.

Neil Parker backed Byeong Hun An to win at +2700 (bet365), pointing to a growing comfort level at TPC Craig Ranch: T14 in 2023 followed by T4 last year. An has made five straight cuts and sits 3rd in this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green over that stretch. Parker highlighted the South Korean’s improved putting here in 2024, when he gained +0.79 true strokes on the greens to rank 19th for the week, arguing that another warm putter paired with elite ball-striking gives An legitimate winning equity at long odds.

Neil Parker said the first win of 2025 is coming for Scottie Scheffler and recommended betting him outright at +280 on DraftKings. Parker noted that the World No. 1 has posted five Top-10 finishes in eight starts this season, including three straight, and has improved in each of his three trips to TPC Craig Ranch, most recently finishing T5 in 2023. Scheffler leads this week’s field in true strokes gained tee-to-green and ranks 2nd on approach and 10th in putting, gaining strokes in all five metrics. Add in the home-state narrative and Parker believes the course sets up perfectly for a breakthrough victory.

Matt Gannon closed the show by endorsing Braden Thornberry at the stone-minimum salary. Thornberry made the cut and delivered a +750 top-20 ticket for Gannon at the Zurich Classic, and the tout called him a "generational practice-round player and a generational easy-course player." Given Craig Ranch’s forgiving layout, Gannon expects Thornberry’s elite wedge game to surface again, giving him realistic cut-making probability and leverage on the field’s chalky punt options.

Gannon said he "really likes Jackson Suber" on resort-style tracks, emphasizing that Craig Ranch’s low-nuance setup matches Suber’s strength of piling up birdies when conditions are easy. At a price near the minimum, Suber merely needs to make the cut and find one hot putting round to crush salary expectations, making him an intriguing punt for large-field tournaments.

Matt Gannon called Christo Lamprecht "maybe seven-foot-four" and raved about his ability to hit it "so freaking far." The South African, best known for leading the Open Championship after round one as an amateur, received a sponsor exemption and sits in the low-6k range. Gannon noted that while Craig Ranch does not demand uncontrolled bombing, extra distance can still yield easy wedges and eagle looks if kept straight—something Lamprecht excels at. He labeled the Corn Ferry star a high-ceiling GPP dart who could smash value if the driver cooperates.

Gannon highlighted Adam Svensson—mispronounced as "Adams Fenson"—as a top 6k flier after switching to a new putter that immediately produced positive strokes-gained putting alongside Cam Davis at the Zurich Classic. With no glaring ball-striking issues and newfound confidence on the greens, Svensson offers cheap exposure to a player who has previously flashed top-5 finishes in low-scoring events. Gannon sees the combination of form and price as perfect for stars-and-scrubs roster builds.

Matt Gannon said the DFS community should "not overthink" Doug Ghim this week, reiterating his long-standing rule to fire up the former Texas Longhorn whenever the Tour lands on a TPC track. Ghim has gained strokes tee-to-green in nine of his last 11 TPC starts and ranks top-20 in this field in both fairways and approach proximity from 150-175 yards—the most frequent yardage at Craig Ranch. At sub-$7,000, Gannon views him as a stable lineup filler with sneaky birdie streak potential.

Gannon admitted Cam Davis is in "really poor ball-striking form" but still endorsed him at $7,100 because he has never missed a cut at TPC Craig Ranch and historically rolls the rock well on these greens. The Aussie’s combination of length and spike-week putting creates tournament-winning upside in birdie races, and Gannon thinks past success at the venue can spark a bounce-back. At near-minimum ownership, Davis is a classic high-volatility GPP dart.

Calling the algorithm "broken," Matt Gannon raved about Nico Echavarria at $7,200. He contrasted the Colombian’s price with Jacob Bridgman’s $8,500 tag and said Echavarria "knows how to win, knows how to absolutely stripe his irons from a clean lie," evidence by a strong showing at the Masters. Because Craig Ranch rewards pure iron play and a hot putter, Gannon plans to be overweight on a golfer he believes should be in the mid-8k tier, labeling him a core play in both cash games and GPPs.

Gannon recommended rostering Lee Hodges in the mid-$7k range, stressing that the Alabama product “continues to gain on approach and off the tee” every healthy start since returning from a February injury. While Hodges missed cuts at TPC San Antonio and the Zurich team event, Gannon dismissed those as small-sample volatility and pointed out that ball-striking is intact—exactly what matters at birdie-fest DFS events. He warned that short-game rust could cap the ceiling, but the tee-to-green form provides a high probability of four rounds at a salary that opens cap space for studs.

Matt Gannon flagged Sam Stevens as one of his core DFS targets at $7,600. Gannon said he has spoken with both Stevens and his caddie and came away convinced they are "really geared up for this week," playing extra practice rounds and believing a breakthrough win is coming soon. Although Stevens’ recent stat profile is unspectacular, Gannon noted that pricing usually over-reacts to that lull—this is the first time in months Stevens has been south of $8k. At a resort-style layout where confidence and aggression produce birdie streaks, Gannon likes betting on the intangible motivation combined with solid all-around skills, calling the salary "a great price for him here."

Gannon closed the 7k tier by endorsing Austin Eckroat at $7,700. Eckroat played collegiate golf in this region, has already proven he can win on Tour, and historically spikes whenever he shows even a flicker of form. At a course demanding fearless wedges and low scores, that volatility is exactly what large-field DFS rosters need.

Gannon flagged Thorbjorn Olesen at $7,600 as a sneaky tournament sprinkle. While he 'won’t make a ton of birdies,' Olesen has the steady 4-under-per-round profile that can cash T7 at low ownership. That floor/ceiling combo pays off his salary and frees salary for studs like Scheffler in single-entry GPPs.

At $7,900 Smalley becomes a classic DFS leverage play. Gannon pointed out Smalley’s elite iron weeks tend to come on TPC setups and that you want to roster him ‘when he drifts’ in salary, not when he’s chalky 9.4k. The combination of high GIR numbers and a history of stringing four sub-par rounds make him an ideal SP2 in balanced builds.

Gannon loves Harry Hall at $8,000, noting his career-best approach week (+6.8) came three weeks ago at TPC San Antonio. Returning to another Texas TPC where he gained 1.5 strokes putting last year, Hall’s desert-style putting prowess and recent iron spike give him tournament-winning volatility at mid-range ownership.

Gannon is out on Tom Kim at $8,700 even if ownership dips. Kim has lost 10 strokes on approach over his last two starts and nearly four off the tee, signalling major swing problems. With the added pressure of a ‘pseudo home game’ pairing likely alongside Scheffler, Gannon expects pressing and more errors—bad ingredients for a birdie race.

Calling $8,800 ‘a great price,’ Gannon highlighted Will Zalatoris’ ball-striking surge—gaining 3.5+ strokes on approach in four of his last five events. He dismissed panic over a Friday 73 at RBC Heritage, pointing out the Saturday 64 and overall T54 finish. In a home-state start where iron play separates contenders, Zalatoris carries legit top-10 equity if the putter is merely neutral.

Gannon prefers the cheaper Nikolai Hojgaard ($8,400) to twin brother Rasmus. While both share similar ceilings, Rasmus ‘chipped like a 37-handicap’ last start, making short-game blow-ups likely. Nikolai, on the other hand, striped it at the Zurich Classic and brings better recent ball-striking with equal length off the tee—perfect for Craig Ranch’s score-fest.

At $9,100 Gannon likes Ben Griffin as a balanced lineup anchor. Griffin’s all-around profile—steady fairways, above-average irons and a reliable flat stick—gives him one of the higher cut-making odds in the field. Gannon emphasized that Griffin’s recent breakthrough victory removes the ‘can he win?’ question while still keeping ownership modest compared to flashier names.

Gannon tagged Stephan Jaeger as his favorite 9k golfer. Jaeger has gained on approach in five straight tournaments—the first such streak he’s had since August ’23—and owns T11 and T20 finishes at this event. Known for ‘nuking it off the tee,’ Jaeger’s willingness to attack pins suits a course where 25-under is in play. Add in a proven Texas win (Houston Open) and you have a strong GPP piece.

After warning listeners to play Si Woo when he was drifting, Gannon now says the jump back to $9,500 is an auto-fade. Even though Kim lives in Dallas and has decent results at Craig Ranch, the pricing removes any leverage and he does not project for the extreme birdie output you need in this event.

Gannon called Ben An his preferred play in the upper-9k tier, highlighting Craig Ranch’s leniency off the tee and birdie-fest nature. An can ‘bomb it and get hot with the short clubs,’ has posted T8 at API, T16 Valspar, T21 Masters and a T4 here in 2024, showing both current form and course history. The mixture of distance and streaky putting makes him a ceiling option few will roster compared to Burns.

Gannon advised avoiding Sam Burns at $9,800 despite the runner-up finish he logged here in a past edition. Burns’ approach play has cratered, and outside of a mildly encouraging Hilton Head week he ‘has forgotten how to play golf.’ Gannon stressed that even a resort-style track cannot salvage a profile that’s losing strokes tee-to-green most weeks, making the price tag unjustifiable in volatile DFS builds.

Matt Gannon said Scottie Scheffler should be jammed into DFS line-ups even at $13,300. He framed the CJ Cup Byron Nelson as a ‘litmus test’ for Scheffler’s current form and attitude, noting the World No.1 has looked visibly frustrated for six weeks but is determined to grab a Texas win in front of home fans. Because TPC Craig Ranch allows multiple scoring styles, Gannon believes a non-tilted Scheffler still owns the highest ceiling in the field and is too dangerous to fade even if the resulting roster average drops to $7,300 per spot.

Gannon took Sam Stevens at 70-1 outright, noting that Stevens’ best statistical outputs continue to come on Texas soil. The Oklahoma State product owns multiple top-15 SG: Ball-Striking performances inside the Lone Star State and has gained over five strokes tee-to-green in three of his last four Texas starts. Books usually fear that profile, pinning him in the 40-50-1 range even in stronger fields, but a sluggish two-month stretch has finally pushed the price to a palatable level. With calm winds forecast and wedges dialed, Gannon sees Stevens as an ideal mid-tier outright and top-10 bet.

Cintorino grabbed Kurt Kitayama at 100-1 with a top-6 each-way, calling the number "flat-out wrong" given Kitayama’s proven closing ability. He reminded listeners that Kitayama gained an eye-popping 17 strokes ball-striking at the Black Desert Championship—on a similarly wide, low-rough layout that turned into a birdie spree. The Byron Nelson asks for the same tee-to-green template: send it long and stick wedges. With a TOUR victory at API and multiple runner-ups in strong fields, Kitayama has far more win equity than most names in this price band. Cintorino recommends sprinkling outrights and top-10/20 props before the market corrects.

Gannon pegged Harry Hall as the top play in the 60-1 tier, grabbing him at 70-1 outright with each-way insurance. Hall is coming off a career-best approach performance at TPC San Antonio and now returns to another Texas TPC design he should like. Gannon noted a fresh caddie on the bag and Hall’s elite birdie-making record—he ranked top-10 in Birdie or Better % during last fall’s swing. With a proven winning pedigree on the Korn Ferry Tour and a field that drops off quickly after the favorites, Gannon believes the market drift has created a clear “buy the dip” opportunity on Hall for outrights, top-20s and DFS leverage.

Matt Gannon warned bettors to fade Tom Kim in every betting market at TPC Craig Ranch. Gannon said the Dallas-based youngster will feel extra pressure playing in front of a hometown crowd and that books have over-inflated his matchup and outright prices because of name value. The underlying form is brutal: Kim has bled more than ten strokes on approach and another four off the tee across his last two starts, numbers that rank near the bottom of the field. Gannon expects Kim to press for birdies in a 25-under shoot-out, a recipe for compounding mistakes when the swing is off. He is comfortable laying the -150 on Sungjae Im in round-one matchups and recommends shorting Kim in any DFS or betting exposure this week.

Matt Gannon prefers Nicolai Hojgaard over twin brother Rasmus, grabbing the Dane at 65-1. After watching every shot at the Zurich Classic, Gannon observed Rasmus “chipping like a 37-handicap,” while Nicolai’s short-game looked far sharper—an asset around TPC Craig Ranch’s shaved run-offs. Add in Nicolai’s elite length off the tee and a putter that can pop, and Gannon believes he profiles perfectly for a 25-under shootout. At a deeper number than Rasmus, Nicolai is Gannon’s preferred outright and each-way dart in the mid-tier.

Dom Cintorino recommended staying away from Will Zalatoris outright. He argued that Zalatoris excels on demanding setups with winning scores in the teens, not on 25-under shootouts like TPC Craig Ranch. Cintorino noted Zalatoris is still 152nd in SG: Putting this season, making it unlikely he can keep pace in a pure birdie contest. With odds in the 40-50-1 range, Dom prefers to wait for a tougher course before investing in Zalatoris again.

Gannon warned against backing Byeong Hun An at his current 20-1 price. He highlighted that An has lost strokes on approach in four of his last six starts and ranks near the bottom of the field in recent proximity numbers. With TPC Craig Ranch traditionally requiring 25-under or better to contend, Gannon doubts An’s driver-putter combo can mask shaky iron play for four straight days. Given both the birdie-fest setup and the depressed price, he is steering clear of An in outrights, top-10s, and DFS builds.

Matt Gannon advised fading Taylor Pendrith in every market this week. Pendrith was 120-1 when he won last year but has been shortened to 25-1 despite a field that now includes Scottie Scheffler. Gannon stressed that Pendrith is not a "generational winner" and relied on a spike putting week while being only field-average on approach during last year’s victory. With no significant skill-set change and far stiffer competition, Gannon sees no value in backing him outright, for top-10s, or even in DFS lineups.

Matt Gannon said bettors should attack the "without Scottie Scheffler" market at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson instead of trying to beat him outright. Gannon called the talent gap "something we've maybe never seen," noting that the next-shortest names—Jordan Spieth and Sungjae Im—would be 80-1 or longer in a normal Scheffler field. He added that a six-shot Scheffler win would not surprise him given the 25-under scoring environment at TPC Craig Ranch and Scheffler’s current tee-to-green heater. Because books are still hanging 14-1 or better on Spieth in the without-Scheffler pool, Gannon thinks that market offers far more value than spraying long-shot outrights that all require a Scheffler stumble.

Nick Borrman doubled down on Ryo Hisatsune as his favorite longshot, shifting the focus to placement markets. Borrman said the Japanese phenom—still just 22—has turned a corner with his irons, gaining strokes on approach in seven of his last eight starts after doing so in only 12 of 29 tournaments as a rookie. That surge has translated into five straight made cuts and four top-20 finishes, capped by a T13 here at Craig Ranch last year. With the wide fairways neutralizing Hisatsune's spotty accuracy and another 20-under shootout expected, Borrman called the +600 top-10 and especially the +260 top-20 ‘must-bet numbers’ that will be part of his official card. He compared the youngster’s trajectory to a mini-Hideki Matsuyama and believes bettors should scoop the placement odds before books adjust.

Nick Borrman tagged Ryo Hisatsune as a proper 100-1 longshot, pointing to five consecutive made cuts and four top-20s in that span. The 22-year-old Japanese prospect has flipped a weakness into a strength, gaining strokes on approach in most 2025 starts after doing so only 12 of 29 times in his rookie year. Borrman believes the wide fairways of Craig Ranch remove Hisatsune’s biggest liability—accuracy off the tee—and let his improving iron game shine in a shootout. He recommended an outright sprinkle plus top-20 exposure where markets are still hanging +400 or better.

Andy Lack rounded out his DraftKings Darlings with Jesper Svensson, who has cashed nine of eleven cuts in 2025, including seven straight. Svensson’s flatstick is carrying the load (+0.46 SG: Putting), and Lack said that’s perfectly fine on a course where a hot putter can hide mediocre iron play. At sub-$7 000 pricing, Svensson delivers a solid weekend floor with slight top-30 upside in optimal scoring conditions.