Tom Jacobs labeled Max McGreevy a "bonus bet" at 66/1 each-way (BetMGM, 6 places), citing sizzling form and a tournament trend favoring first-time winners. McGreevy finished 3rd in Bermuda, racking up 19 birdies while ranking 2nd in Total Accuracy: most greens hit and 18th in fairways. That result followed a 12th at the Japan Open, 11th in Utah, and streaky low rounds of 63 and 68 in Mexico, signaling his ceiling is climbing. Four years ago, he debuted here with a T-16, posting 64 in round one and four sub-70s, but he’s never returned in comparable form. Jacobs noted that recent RSM champs McNealy, Aberg, and Gooch all arrived on heater streaks and collected their first PGA Tour wins, a script McGreevy now mirrors. With a shorter, accuracy-centric setup and a weakened field, Jacobs believes the 29-year-old’s current ball-striking surge makes him a prime breakthrough candidate.

Tom Jacobs recommended Mackenzie Hughes at 66/1 each-way (BetMGM, 6 places), calling the Canadian "a classic Sea Island specialist." Hughes has won this event (2016), finished runner-up twice, and logged a 5th last year, demonstrating a ceiling few in the field can match. Although he missed his last two cuts, Jacobs pointed out that Hughes actually gained ground in second rounds both weeks and, just three starts ago, took 7th at the Procore Championship while grabbing first-round leader honors. The fit is ideal for his profile—short off the tee but lights-out with the putter—and Hughes has a history of popping here out of nowhere; he entered his 2016 win off a 68th and a missed cut. Given the weak field and proven course comfort, Jacobs believes the market overreacted to a pair of off weeks and that Hughes is live again on his favorite greens.

Tom Jacobs advised betting Chris Kirk at 33/1 each-way (BetMGM, 6 places at 1/5 odds), arguing that everything lines up for a big week. Kirk closed his 2025 PGA Tour season on a heater—12th at the U.S. Open, runner-up at the Rocket Mortgage, then three straight top-14 finishes—before taking a purposeful break once his 2026 status was secured. Jacobs views the decision to return solely for Sea Island as a confidence signal because Kirk lived on the island for years and lifted this trophy in 2013. Course history is boom-or-bust (win, two 4ths, two 18ths, but four missed cuts in the last six starts), yet Jacobs noted the upside is undeniable on a layout that rewards Kirk’s precision iron play. Data Golf now slots him inside the world top-50 and just one spot outside the OWGR top-60, reinforcing the idea that his underlying form is elite. With hometown familiarity, elite recent ball-striking, and proven winning equity, Jacobs labeled Kirk the safest bet on the board.

For his final aggressive top-forty dart, Jason Sobel highlighted reigning U.S. Amateur champion Mason Howell. At just 18, Howell follows a wave of teenagers like Nick Dunlap and Luke Clanton who have shown amateurs can contend immediately under little financial pressure. Sobel advised a conservative top-40 ticket but encouraged bettors to ladder Howell up to a top-five if seeking a true home-run payout, banking on pure talent and carefree swagger.

Jason Sobel suggested taking a yet-to-be-posted top-forty price on Doc Redman. The 2017 U.S. Amateur champ slumped to 138th on the Korn Ferry points list but has reignited this fall with a T-9 at Sanderson Farms and T-20 at the Bank of Utah. Playing on a sponsor exemption, Redman carries recent momentum and long-term pedigree that Sobel still trusts despite an otherwise disappointing season.

Jason Sobel’s aggressive top-twenty pick is Carson Young at +400. Young finished T-6 three weeks ago at the World Wide Technology Championship, thrives on Bermuda greens, and relies on accuracy more than power—traits that tend to play well at Sea Island’s shorter layouts. While his ultimate ceiling at the highest level remains unclear, Sobel believes Young’s solid floor and course fit create value at this number.

Jason Sobel labeled Chris Kirk a textbook conservative top-twenty wager at +160. The 2013 Sea Island champion closed the regular season with five top-15 finishes in seven starts and has recorded six career top-twenties at this event. Though Kirk has not played since August, Sobel argued short-priced, low-volatility positions like this are essential to a steady golf betting ROI, even if they lack the Sunday sweat of longshots.

Jason Sobel also endorsed Eric Cole for a top-ten at +450, noting Cole’s trademark heavy schedule means he arrives in competitive rhythm. The 36-year-old has logged two top-tens in his last four starts and finished T-3 and T-15 at the RSM the past two seasons. Sobel views Cole’s blend of recent form and proven Sea Island track record as undervalued at this price.

For an aggressive top-ten at +400, Jason Sobel cited Bud Cauley’s reliable course fit. Although Cauley has played only once this fall, he owns one career top-ten plus three additional top-25s at the RSM. Sobel described Cauley as the higher-floor option among his two aggressive picks, trusting the veteran’s comfort at Sea Island to offset limited recent reps.

Jason Sobel slotted Denny McCarthy into the conservative top-ten market at +300. McCarthy has not teed it up since the BMW Championship in mid-August, a layoff that kept Sobel off the outright number, yet the 36-hole friendly Seaside and Plantation courses play to McCarthy’s precision game. He owns three top-tens in his last six RSM starts and added a T-25 here last year. Sobel framed the bet as a way to capture McCarthy’s typical Sea Island success without overpaying for a win on a player who has been idle for three months.

Jason Sobel recommended a top-five wager on Pierceson Coody at +750 after highlighting that Coody currently leads the Tour in SG: Off-the-Tee (with Scottie Scheffler second and Rory McIlroy fourth) despite only recently logging enough rounds to qualify. Coody also sits 18th in SG: Total and has finished 31st or better in seven of his last ten starts, recording two third-place results. Sobel expects his approach and putting numbers to improve once he gains full status next season but thinks the 25-year-old’s all-around game is already good enough to crack the top five this week even if the Sea Island layout mutes raw driving distance.

Tom Jacobs threw a dart at Camilo Villegas at 350/1 each-way (BetMGM, 6 places) after the Colombian’s top-10 in Bermuda snapped a brutal run. Villegas tied Alex Smalley for most birdies last week (22), led the field in Par-5 scoring at –10 (three shots clear), and hit 72% of greens on Sunday, third-best in the field. Jacobs sees those metrics translating to Sea Island’s straightforward test, where length is muted and wedge-putter combos decide scoring. Villegas nearly won here in 2016, losing a playoff to Hughes, and added a solo 6th in a later visit, proving the course fit. Jacobs recalled that two years ago Villegas parlayed a runner-up in Mexico into a Bermuda victory, illustrating his ability to ride momentum. If the putter stays hot and mistakes drop, Jacobs believes the veteran can crash the leaderboard at massive odds.

Jason Sobel targeted Jacob Bridgeman at +6600 as an aggressive outright. Bridgeman ranks 18th on Tour in SG: Putting and, as a South Carolina native, tends to spike even higher on Bermuda greens—evidenced by top-three finishes earlier this year at PGA National and Innisbrook. Like Smalley, he owns his 2026 status and has stayed sharp with multiple fall starts. Although Bridgeman missed the cut in his lone RSM appearance, Sobel believes his combination of current form and surface-specific putting upside makes him live to win if the flatstick heats up.

Jason Sobel said Alex Smalley is his preferred conservative outright play at +4000. Smalley will be making his sixth fall start, giving him competitive reps while many big names arrive rusty. Over his last 14 starts he has seven missed cuts but four finishes of 13th or better, including two top-fives in his past three events, a boom-or-bust profile Sobel loves for outright tickets. He posted a T-5 at Sea Island three years ago, sits 71st in FedEx points with his 2026 card secured, and therefore carries motivation without crippling pressure—exactly the combination that produced the last two RSM winners. Sobel conceded Smalley could miss the cut but argued the 29-year-old’s ceiling is high enough to cash on a week when many favorites may still be in offseason mode.

Reynolds scooped Lee Hodges at a juicy 105/1 (Circa). Hodges finished 5th here last year and, despite sitting 122nd in FedExCup (good for conditional status), ranks top-10 in every key proximity bucket from 100-175 yards. His SG:OTT on short courses (+0.45) plus a 26.9 SG mark on 400-450-yard par-4s place him among the field’s most efficient scorers on Sea Island’s bread-and-butter holes. Reynolds believes that wedge firepower can yield enough birdies to cash an outright or back-door a each-way ticket.

At 66/1 (BetMGM) Reynolds views Mac Meissner as a live longshot. Meissner’s runner-up at Wyndham locked him safely inside the top-100, letting him attack aggressively this week. He’s stayed sharp with four straight made cuts and owns a +0.59 SG average on courses under 7,200 yards. Crucially, Meissner gains strokes putting on Bermuda, a surface that decides the RSM more often than not. His above-field wedge proximities (top-5 from 125-150 yards) create birdie looks in what Reynolds expects to be a 20-under shootout.

Reynolds fired on Seamus Power at 65/1 (DraftKings) despite the Irishman hovering at No. 129 in FedExCup. Power’s form is trending—27th in Mexico followed by 11th in Bermuda—and Sea Island is one of his best stops (T-4 in 2021, T-5 in 2022). He thrives on short Bermuda tracks: a win in Bermuda, thirds at Waialae and El Camaleon, plus fifth and seventh at Corales. Power also ranks 2nd in proximity from 100-150 yards across the last 50 rounds, matching this week’s iron profile.

Eric Cole (60/1 Circa) earned Reynolds’s nod thanks to a course-history/comp-course combo: 3rd at Sea Island in 2023, 15th in 2024, plus 5th and 13th the last two years at Waialae, a proven RSM proxy. Cole owns two top-10s in his past four starts and enters 78th in FedExCup, so a deep run could slide him into the lucrative Aon Next 10. His wedge play ranks top-15 in proximity from 100-125 yards, and his short-course strokes-gained average (+0.95) sits second in this field.

Reynolds wagered on Max McGreevy at 50/1 (Circa) after the Oklahoman’s T-3 in Bermuda vaulted him to 89th in the FedExCup, removing status pressure. McGreevy has been inside the top-12 in three of his last four starts and showed a winning ceiling last November by beating Matsuyama and others at the Dunlop Phoenix. With two Korn Ferry wins last year and excellent proximity numbers from 150-175 yards—an emphasized bucket at Sea Island—Reynolds sees a relaxed, in-form McGreevy as a sneaky outright.

Reynolds grabbed Pierceson Coody at 49/1 (Circa Sports) noting the perfect blend of talent and urgency. Coody sits No. 110 in the FedExCup; a strong finish jumps him inside the top-100 and locks a full-field card. He already owns seven KFT top-10s and two PGA TOUR thirds (3M Open, Bank of Utah Championship) this season. Reynolds likes Coody’s elite birdie rate (25.93%, best on TOUR) on a course expected to yield 20-under or better, plus his positive strokes-gained numbers on short layouts under 7,200 yards.

Wes Reynolds backed Vince Whaley at 40/1 on BetMGM, pointing to Whaley’s scorching run of 18 straight made cuts and a T-3 last week in Bermuda, his second top-3 finish in his past five starts. The Atlanta native treats Sea Island as a home game and has already flashed course comfort with finishes of 13th in 2023 and 8th in 2024 at the RSM. Reynolds thinks the short, wind-exposed setup plays right into Whaley’s tidy iron game and hot Bermuda putter, making him live to claim his first PGA TOUR win.

Matt Cradock highlighted Chandler Phillips at +6600, arguing that the Texan’s runner-up finish at last week’s Butterfield Bermuda Championship shows his ceiling, and the numbers back it up—Phillips gained 8.1 strokes tee-to-green in Bermuda and ranked 2nd in the field in birdies. Although he missed the cut in the two events before that, Cradock views the recent surge as a sign that mechanical tweaks have clicked. Phillips tied for 8th at Sea Island last season, giving him both positive memories and proof his game translates to the wind-exposed layout. Sitting 92nd in the FedEx Cup Fall standings, he still needs a solid week to lock up 2026 status, providing extra motivation that Cradock thinks the betting market has not fully priced in.

Matt Cradock flagged JT Poston at +3300 as his top card, noting the three-time PGA Tour winner’s history and form converge this week. Poston closed last year’s RSM with weekend rounds of 64–65 to finish T5, and he has not finished outside the top 30 in any of his last four starts this fall swing. Cradock emphasized Poston’s elite wedge game—he ranks 6th in proximity from 100-150 yards over the last three months—which is crucial on the Seaside Course’s short approach shots. With confidence high and a proven ability to seal tournaments, Cradock believes Poston represents “sneaky mid-tier value” in an otherwise bunched market.

Jonny Leighfield recommended sprinkling Valimaki outright at +5500 and backing him in placement markets. The Finn is playing freely with little on the line and rolls in with serious momentum after finishes of T2 and T8 in his last two PGA Tour starts. While he is shorter off the tee than most of this field, Leighfield pointed out that Sea Island historically rewards precision over brute force; Valimaki sits top-15 in fairways hit and top-20 in GIR percentage over the past eight weeks. Leighfield added that first-timers have thrived here in the past because the set-up neutralizes local knowledge. He projects another top-10 and believes the win equity is higher than the price implies.

Jonny Leighfield said Michael Thorbjornsen is worth a stab at +2500 because the American checks every box Sea Island demands. Thorbjornsen posted a solo 3rd at the Baycurrent Classic three weeks ago and has gained strokes off-the-tee and with the putter in four of his last five measured starts, a combination Leighfield believes separates contenders from pretenders on the tightly-mown Seaside layout. He ranks top-25 on Tour in driving accuracy while still carrying above-average distance, giving him scoring chances on the short par-4s that define the RSM. A T8 here last year reinforces the course fit, and with this being the final chance to lock up status before the long winter break, Leighfield expects maximum focus from a player he calls "one win away from superstardom."

At 105/1 (Circa) Lee Hodges made the card. He was 5th here last year and, despite sitting 122nd in FedExCup points (conditional status secured), ranks inside the top-15 in every key wedge proximity bucket and top-20 in SG: Approach on the season (0.425). The analyst believes the wide fairways let Hodges attack pins and rack up birdies in calmer conditions.

Mac Meissner was bet 66/1 at BetMGM. He locked top-100 status thanks to a runner-up at the Wyndham but stayed sharp with four fall made cuts. The handicapper likes Meissner’s profile: 5th in proximity from 125-150 yards (5.84 ft gained) and +0.59 SG on sub-7200-yard courses. He gains strokes putting on Bermuda and has nothing to lose chasing a maiden victory.

Seamus Power was added at 65/1 on DraftKings. Power sits 129th in FedExCup points and needs a big finish to retain full status. The analyst highlighted progressive form—27th in Mexico followed by 11th last week in Bermuda—and a sparkling history on coastal Bermuda tracks: two top-5s at this event (2021, 2022), a win at Port Royal, and podiums at Waialae and El Camaleon. Power also ranks 2nd on TOUR in proximity from 100-125 yards (7.61 ft gained) and 4th in SG: Putting on Bermuda (+0.76).

Eric Cole was tipped at 60/1 via Circa. He owns a strong Sea Island record—3rd in 2023 and 15th in 2024—and the analyst notes that Waialae success often translates here. Cole finished 5th and 13th at the Sony Open the past two seasons. Entering the week 78th in FedExCup points with two top-10s in his last four starts, he ranks 0.82 SG on short courses and gains over a half-shot per round putting on Bermuda (+0.55).

Max McGreevy was bet at 50/1 (Circa). The analyst likes the freedom factor: last week’s T-3 vaulted him to 89th in FedExCup points, removing card pressure. Since winning twice on the Korn Ferry in 2024 and adding an international victory at the Dunlop Phoenix one year ago, McGreevy has three top-12 finishes in his last four starts. His 0.59 SG on sub-7200-yard layouts and top-20 Birdie or Better rate (23.40%) fit a forecasted low-scoring shootout.

The tout grabbed Pierceson Coody 49/1 at Circa Sports, citing elite upside and do-or-die motivation. Coody sits exactly 110th in FedExCup points; a jump into the top-100 would lock up full status. He owns seven Korn Ferry top-10s this season and already logged two PGA TOUR podiums (3M Open and Bank of Utah Championship). Coody leads the entire TOUR in Birdie or Better rate (25.93%) and ranks third in SG: Off-the-Tee on courses under 7200 yards (+0.64 per round in the split), a profile well suited to the short, driver-less Sea Island rotation.

The VSiN handicapper played the homer angle and bet Vince Whaley 40/1 at BetMGM. Whaley lives a short drive from Sea Island, has quietly made 18 consecutive PGA TOUR cuts and just tied for 3rd in Bermuda—his second top-3 in five starts. He has already shown course comfort with a 13th in 2023 and an 8th in 2024 at this event. With light winds expected and winning score projected at −20 or lower, the analyst likes Whaley’s combination of recent birdie making (24.25% Birdie or Better) and proven Bermuda putting (+0.38 SG per round on the surface).

Johnston played Kanaya Top-20 at +250, citing two top-5 finishes in his last four starts and the fact he currently leads the TOUR in Scrambling. Johnston expects that short-game edge to shine on both the Plantation and Seaside rotations and make the +250 price "a nice add to the card."

Breece wagered Cole Top-20 at +280, noting two top-10s in the last four starts and course results of T15 and T3 at Sea Island. With form trending up again, he trusts Cole to flirt with contention and easily land inside the top quarter of the field.

Reinman played Valimaki as Top Nordic at +340, citing the Finn’s "elite approach and putting tools" and red-hot form (T2 Mexico, T18 Bermuda). He expects those weapons to edge countrymen like Thorbjorn Olesen and Kris Ventura on the coastal setup.

Reinman bet Poston outright at +2500, reminding readers that the North Carolinian picked off a FedExCup Fall title in Las Vegas last year. Poston hasn’t teed it up since Sanderson Farms but ended the regular season with finishes of T11, T22 and T30, plus a T5 at Sea Island in 2024. Reinman trusts that proven ability to win off limited reps.

Johnston grabbed Hughes at +4500 because the Canadian owns two runner-up finishes and a T5 in his last four RSM starts. Despite a pair of recent missed cuts, Hughes opened the fall with a T7 in Napa, and Johnston thinks that course history plus talent makes the number too long.

Paul Hodowanic joined the Thorbjornsen train at +2500, pointing out that the last two RSM champions — Ludvig Aberg and Maverick McNealy — used the event as a launching pad. Hodowanic believes Thor possesses equal talent and has maintained solid form all fall, making him the logical next breakout at Sea Island.

Bolton played Hoey twice: Top Rest-of-World at +470 and Group A Winner at +360. He noted the Filipino is No.3 in his Power Rankings and has been "as consistently strong in the FedExCup Fall as anyone," outperforming more recognizable names like Harris English and Si Woo Kim in the same subgroup.

Bolton sprinkled on Villegas at +15000, citing the Colombian’s T9 in Bermuda and a history of catching fire late in the calendar. He recalled Villegas’ 2023 stretch where a T2 was followed by a win the very next week, arguing similar momentum could cash another massive ticket in a wide-open field.

Rob Bolton backed the top name in his own Power Rankings, taking Whaley outright at +3000. With no prohibitive favorite in the 156-man field, Bolton expects wider dispersion and sees Whaley’s steady tee-to-green profile as the safest path to the trophy.

Breece grabbed McCarthy Top-10 at +360 despite this being his first start since the BMW. McCarthy made The RSM his lone fall appearance the past two seasons and still finished T5 and T25. Breece trusts the elite putter’s course comfort to pay off again at attractive odds.

Chris Breece fired again on Smalley at +3500, reminding readers that each of the last four RSM champions earned their first TOUR win here. Smalley has two top-5 finishes in his last three starts and Breece thinks the door finally opens for the elite ball-striker to follow the recent script.

At +260 for a Top-40, Gray believes Kevin Kisner can summon old Sea Island magic. The former champion is reuniting with his longtime caddie and could be making his last TOUR start as a fully-exempt player. With four career top-10s at this event, Gray thinks the motivation and comfort level create an easy path to cashing the prop.

Gray labeled Coody an “ironman” for splitting time between the Korn Ferry and PGA TOUR yet finishing T31 or better in all five fall starts. With that high-floor form, he played Coody Top-10 at +500 and expects another strong week from the relentless ball-striker.

Gray grabbed Bud Cauley at +5000, noting the Alabama product owns four top-25 finishes at Sea Island including last year’s showing. After a long injury layoff, Cauley has “made huge strides” in 2025 and Gray sees the momentum building toward a maiden TOUR title on a course where the former U.S. Amateur star is already comfortable.

Will Gray said he kept “searching for reasons not to pick Thor” and came up empty, so he is leaning in at +2500 for an outright win. Gray pointed out that Sea Island rewards precise iron play and Thorbjornsen currently leads the TOUR in Greens-in-Regulation. The 22-year-old has stacked quality finishes all FedExCup Fall and Gray believes he caps the run with a first victory on a layout that accentuates his biggest edge.

Bamford fired on Seamus Power at 40/1, noting the Irishman’s urgent FedEx Fall situation (129th, needs top-125 to secure 2026 status). Power owns elite Sea Island form—4th in 2021 and 5th in 2022—and was T11 in Bermuda last week after entering Sunday inside the top-10. The 2022 Butterfield Bermuda champ ranks second in Bamford’s ‘Resort-scoring’ predictor and historically gains strokes on TifEagle greens. With warm, low-wind conditions projected to mimic other venues where Power has excelled (Port Royal, El Camaleon), Bamford expects his combination of accurate driving, solid scrambling and hot Bermuda putting to keep him in the mix for at least a top-10 and potentially the win that would lock up full status.

Steve Bamford grabbed Vince Whaley at 40/1 each-way, citing a surge to 59th in Datagolf and three top-4 finishes in his last ten PGA Tour starts, including 3rd at both Sanderson Farms and last week’s Bermuda Championship. Whaley ranks 73rd in FedEx points but could vault into the lucrative AON Next 10 with a win. Course pedigree jumps off the page—13th here in 2023, 8th in 2024—and he thrives on short, grainy-Bermuda setups: four consecutive top-8s at Port Royal (7-8-5-3 from 2021-25). The Atlanta resident’s coastal comfort, improved ball-striking and proven scoring on resort tracks led Bamford to label him a “later-bloomer ready to convert.”

Bamford staked Pierceson Coody at 35/1, pointing out that the 25-year-old sits 110th in the FedEx Fall standings and can grab a full 2026 card by cracking the top-100—huge motivation in a final-event field. Coody is top-five in Bamford’s recent Strokes Gained form table after seven Korn Ferry top-10s and PGA Tour podiums at the 3M Open and Bank of Utah Championship. He owns Sea Island reps from his amateur days, is a three-time KFT winner who ‘knows how to close,’ and just posted 22nd in hurricane-gust conditions at Bermuda, signalling both coastal aptitude and resilience. Bamford believes those ingredients, plus the maiden-friendly history of this event, make Coody live for an outright breakthrough.

Steve Bamford backed Michael Thorbjornsen each-way at 25/1, stressing that nine of the last eleven Sea Island winners arrived without a prior PGA Tour victory and expects the 24-year-old to extend that trend. Bamford noted Thorbjornsen’s form on short, resort-style layouts: 2nd at Corales, 4th at the Rocket Mortgage and 3rd at the Baycurrent Classic—all events where winning totals sat in the mid-teens or lower. He finished 8th here last year despite two windy opening rounds, so calmer, warmer 2025 weather should be a boost. Thorbjornsen ranks sixth in Bamford’s eight-week Strokes Gained model and was fast-tracked to the Tour via PGA Tour University, giving him plenty of reps against this week’s weaker field. Course familiarity, hot current iron play and positive Bermuda putting splits underpin Bamford’s call for a first-time winner ticket.